Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,370.87 +.09%
  
• DJIA 12,922.0 -.43%
  
• NASDAQ 2,988.34 +.41%
  
• Russell 2000 817.0 +1.82%
  
• Wilshire 5000 14,274.30 +.26%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 645.67 +.06%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 675.59 +.17%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 782.69 -.05%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,008.64 -1.05%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 687.44 +.24%
  
• Transports 5,161.93 +.03%
  
• Utilities 454.95 +.26%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.71 -1.79%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,026.89 -1.71%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 828.67 -1.82%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 532.51 +1.54%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 145,466 +1.12%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 145 -75
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.0 -35.71%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 236,952 -6.92%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,584,849 +4.42%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -1.10%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.58 +12.06%
  
• ISE Sentiment 93.0 -2.11%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.15 +16.16%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 17.11 -1.04%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.99 -2.38%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.35 +1.87%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,840.69 +.36%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.666 Trillion +.2%
  
• AAII % Bulls 42.38 -4.79%
  
• AAII % Bears 29.0 +8.09%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 317.61 -.58%
  
• Crude Oil 107.40 +.85%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 333.24 +1.57%
  
• Natural Gas 2.32 -5.75%
  
• Heating Oil 326.38 +1.91%
  
• Gold 1,711.50 -.05%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 221.72 -3.20%
  
• Copper 385.85 -1.24%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 403.33 USD/Ton -.33%
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 142.60 USD/Ton -.42%
  
• Lumber 272.60 -2.40%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,522.64 -2.24%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.60% +40 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0480 -13.98%
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 107.84 +.26%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 -6.1 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 46.0% chance of no change, 54.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/13
  
• US Dollar Index 80.04 +.75%
  
• Yield Curve 171.0 +1 basis point
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.03% +6 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.867 Trillion -1.41%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.05 -1.87%
  
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 228.0 +.53%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 351.58 +1.50%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 219.0 +2.34%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.42 -1.69%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 81.73 +2.72%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 599.0 -6 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29% +5 basis points
  
• TED Spread 39.0 -2.5 basis points
  
• 3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 54.75 -6.25 basis points
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -65.75 +6.75 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 94.86 +.71%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 165.75 +2.51%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 239.0 +.51%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 162.0 -15 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $2.218 Trillion -.18%
  
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 925.60 -.20%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 355,000 +.10%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.7% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.88% -2 basis point
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 754.40 -1.20%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -36.7 +2.1 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% +10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.76/gallon +.02/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 44.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 824.0 +6.87%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 227,256 +6.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.06%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.0%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilders +4.43%
  
• Retail +2.64%
• Tobacco +1.72%
• Computer Services +1.03%
• Education +.82%

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Service -1.79%
• Airlines -2.09%
  
• Coal -3.76%
• Gold & Silver -3.80%
• Steel -7.28%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• TRCR, ARCL, MDSO, INVN, ALOG, SHFL, PAY, MFB and KIRK
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• AIG, BOX, AGNC, NTRI, AEGR, WSM, GDOT and P
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising Slightly Into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Financial Sector Optimism, Investor Performance Angst

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Light
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.47 -2.67%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +12.24%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -3.26%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.02 +36.28%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.86 -1.29%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 165.92 -.76%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 351.70 +.60%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.59 -.07%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +.5 bp
  
• TED Spread 40.0 +.25 bp
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -65.75 -1.75 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 171.0 unch.
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $142.60/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 -6.6 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +59 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail and Medical sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish, as the S&P 500 trades back near recent highs despite rising energy prices, a weak euro and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Disk Drive and Retail shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.25%. Financial shares have traded well throughout the day. Small-caps are strongly outperforming. Copper is rising +1.53%. Major Asian indices rose around +1.25% overnight, despite more disappointing data out of China, led by a +2.1% gain in Indian shares. I still don’t believe that the imminent aggressive easing by China that many have been expecting for months will come to fruition in the near-term. The Japan sovereign cds is down -2.7% to 109.60 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is down -4.23% to 128.16 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is down -2.1% to 113.81 bps. On the negative side, Energy, Oil Service, Steel, Internet, Airline and Road&Rail shares are lower on the day. Oil is rising +.7%, Gold is gaining +.65% and Lumber is down -1.9%. The Transports have lagged throughout the day. The 10Y T-Note Yield at 2.03%, remains a concern considering the recent stock rally, falling Eurozone debt angst and improvement in US economic data. As well, the Philly Fed/ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index is down -17.1% over the last 5 days and continues to trend lower from its mid-December peak. Lumber is -4.2% since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, more dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still fairly close to its Jan. 9th all-time high. Overall, credit gauge improvement has stalled over the last few weeks and these gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -21.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up +711.0% ytd and are still very near their recent all-time high. I still think this is more of a red flag for falling demand rather than the intentional hoarding, which many suggest. Major European indices were mixed as a +.67% gain in Germany offset a -1.11% loss in Italian shares. The Bloomberg European Financial Services/Bank Index fell -.53%. While the current European “can-kicking” may satisfy politicians’ needs for short-term stability, I continue to believe their recent actions will eventually result in an even more intense debt crisis over the intermediate-term. US stocks continue to trade very well. I have a small long position in shares of (TFM), which is hitting a new high today. The stock is slightly extended short-term, but is breaking out of its post-IPO range and should outperform over the intermediate-term. I am still looking for signs of another move lower in the major averages before the end of next week. For an intermediate-term equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on Eurozone debt angst, rising energy prices, rising global growth fears, more shorting, technical selling and profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greece Pushes Bondholders Into Record Debt Swap. Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history after getting private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt, opening the way for a second bailout. Euro-region finance ministers agreed on a conference call that with the swap Greece had met the terms for a 130 billion- euro rescue package designed to prevent a collapse of the economy. Ministers freed up 35.5 billion euros in payments and interest for bondholders, with a decision on the balance of the bailout funds to be made at a March 12 meeting in Brussels. “It would be a big mistake to think we are out of the woods,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters in Berlin after the call today. “We have a chance of making it. And we have to seize that opportunity.”
• Euro Drops as Greece Forces Investors to Take Part in Debt Swap. The euro weakened for the first time in three days against the dollar after Greece said it triggered an option compelling investors to take part in its debt restructuring, damping demand for the region's assets. The common currency fell versus 11 of its 16 major peers before the International Swaps and Derivatives Association meets to consider a "potential credit event" relating to Greece, following the results of the nation's private-sector involvement plan. "The euro has failed to gather any further support from the Greek news," said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. "The market was fully expecting a successful PSI. The rebound we've seen in the euro may be running out of steam."
• European Stocks Post Weekly Drop; Enel, Peugeot, Salzgitter Lead Decline. European stocks fell this week as investors speculated the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s best start to a year since 1998 has overshot the outlook for the economy. Enel SpA sank to a record low as Italy’s largest utility cut its dividend target to reduce debt. PSA Peugeot Citroen sank 7.8 percent after Europe’s second-biggest carmaker announced a 1 billion-euro ($1.3 billion) rights offer. Salzgitter AG lost 7 percent after the steelmaker said it was“impossible” to provide an earnings forecast. The benchmark Stoxx 600 (SXXP) slid 0.7 percent to 265.44 this week, the biggest drop since Feb. 10.
• Gross Says Bond-Contract Sanctity Is Hurt by Greece's Debt Swap: Tom Keene. The “sanctity” of bondholders’ contracts has been diminished by Greece’s pushing through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, according to Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co. “The rules have been changed here,” Gross, co-chief investment officer at Pimco, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “The sanctity of their contracts is certainly lessened. Bondholders have that to look forward to going into the future.”
• Greece's New Bonds Yield More Than Portugal's on Growth Concern. Greek government bonds due to be issued after the nation's debt swap is completed were priced at less than 30 percent of face amount, signaling concern the country will struggle to repay its revised obligations. While the debt swap is "a big step forward, it's not totally out of the woods yet," said Mohit Kumar, the head of European fixed-income strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. "There is a premium still demanded for Greece." Greece's economy shrank 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2010, the Athens-based Hellenic Statistical Authority said today. The contraction, based on non- seasonally adjusted data, was wider than a Feb. 14 preliminary estimate of a 7 percent contraction, the authority said. The 2 percent bonds maturing in February 2023 were bid at 25.5 cents on the euro at 4:25 p.m. London time, BNP Paribas SA data on Bloomberg showed. They were offered at 26 cents, according to Jefferies Group Inc. That left the yield on the securities bid at 19.7 percent and offered at 19.42 percent, the data showed. Portuguese securities maturing in October 2023 yielded less than 14 percent.
• Greek Swap is 'Dangerous Precedent,' Wraith Says. (video) John Wraith, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, talks about the restructuring of Greece's sovereign debt. He speaks with Owen Thomas and Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."
• Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%. The 227,000 increase followed a revised 284,000 gain in January that was bigger than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median projection of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 210,000 rise. The jobless rate held at 8.3 percent, even as 476,000 more workers sought employment. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, rose to 63.9 percent from 63.7 percent. Education and health services employment jumped 71,000, the most since September 2006, according the Labor Department. Construction companies reduced payrolls by 13,000 workers last month, the biggest drop since January 2011. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent to $23.31, today’s report showed. The workweek for all employees averaged 34.5 hours for a third consecutive month. The so-called underemployment rate, which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking, decreased to a three-year low of 14.9 percent from 15.1 percent. The report also showed a decrease in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people without a job for 27 weeks or more fell as a percentage of all jobless, to 42.6 percent from 42.9 percent.
• Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Set to Default on $5.27 Million GO Bond Payments. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s insolvent capital, says it will miss general-obligation bond payments for the first time next week as its receiver seeks approval for a plan to sell assets. The city, whose debt load of more than $300 million is five times its general-fund budget, will miss $5.27 million in general-obligation bond payments due March 15, according to a notice its receiver posted on the Electronic Municipal Market Access system, a database for filings by municipal-debt issuers.
• Gold Bulls Strengthening as Bullion Wagers Reach $131 Billion: Commodities. Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised bets on gains to a five-month high. Sixteen of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and one was neutral, the highest proportion since Nov. 11. Investors increased their holdings in exchange- traded products backed by bullion for seven consecutive weeks and now hold 2,407 metric tons valued at $131 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
• Oil Increases for a Third Day. Oil for April delivery climbed 94 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $107.52 a barrel at 12:41 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have advanced 0.8 percent this week and 8.8 percent this year. Brent oil for April settlement gained 35 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $125.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Total U.S. fuel demand fell an average 78,000 barrels a day to 18.2 million last week, an Energy Department report on March 7 showed. Consumption was down 7.6 percent from the same week a year earlier.
• China's February New Yuan Loans Were a Lower Than Estimated $113 Billion. China’s new yuan loans were less than estimated in February and money supply growth was below the government’s target, central bank data showed yesterday. Local-currency-denominated loans were 710.7 billion yuan ($113 billion) last month, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement on its website yesterday. That compares with the 750 billion yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists and 738 billion yuan in January. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, expanded 13 percent in February from a year earlier.
• Solar Panel Sales Seen Dropping First Time in Decade, Feeding Glut: Energy. Fewer solar panels will be installed this year as the first drop in more than a decade worsens a glut of the unsold devices that’s already slashed margins at the top five manufacturers, an analyst survey showed. Homes and businesses will put up 24.8 gigawatts of solar panels worldwide, according to the average of six forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News. That’s equal to the power of about 20 nuclear reactors and down 10 percent from the 27.7 gigawatts added last year. Installations have grown 61 percent a year on average since 1999, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. The decline would be the first since Germany began offering premium rates for solar power in 2004, opening the way for mass, utility-scale installations. It will exacerbate price-cutting and a surge in inventories that last year forced Solyndra LLC into bankruptcy, prompted SunPower Corp. to seek a buyout and gutted margins at top manufacturers led by Suntech Power Holdings Co. and First Solar Inc. “Overcapacity has been an overhang for this industry, and with Germany tightening it doesn’t seem like it will ease,” said Amir Rozwadowski, an analyst at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “It’s difficult to assess where there’s a significant push-out that would lead to accelerating demand, given the anticipated decline in Europe.” Germany and Italy, the biggest photovoltaic markets, cut subsidies to curtail a boom last year, helping depress prices for panels by more than 50 percent.
• Biggest Shipping Banks Withdraw New Funding, Lender DVB Says. Thirteen of the world’s 19 largest shipping banks stopped new lending to the industry amid an “extreme” vessel surplus that’s cut cash flows and led to vessel seizures, financier DVB Bank SE (DVB) said. The Rotterdam-based transportation lender that’s financing 1,500 vessels through 450 loan agreements is one of six remaining banks funding shipping, Dagfinn Lunde, a member of DVB’s board of managing directors, said at a presentation in London today. As many as 100 were lending to the industry four years ago, he said. Fifteen DVB loans worth $2 billion breached loan-to-value clauses after asset prices fell during the past four years and needed additional cash or security to regain compliance, Lunde said. The bank controls 20 ships, has seized and sold others and is prepared to take over more as rates for vessels “haven’t hit bottom yet,” he said. Lunde didn’t give a total figure for numbers of vessels seized.
• Obama Rallies Support for Health-Care Law Ahead of Supreme Court Case. While Supreme Court justices weigh the fate of the 2010 health-care overhaul late this month, the White House will help coordinate efforts to showcase the law’s most popular provisions outside the court to blunt relentless Republican attacks. Dozens of consumer, church and public health groups plan events including a prayer vigil to rally support for the health- care overhaul as the Supreme Court holds arguments on the measure March 26 to 28. About 100 supporters met at the White House on March 7 to discuss a coordinated response, according to an administration official who declined to speak on the record because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the gathering.
• Buffett's NetJets is Countersued by U.S. for $366 Million in Unpaid Taxes. NetJets Inc., the private-plane company owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/B), was countersued by the U.S. over $366 million in taxes and penalties. NetJets in November sued the U.S., saying the federal government had wrongly imposed taxes, interest and penalties totaling more than $642.7 million. The federal government, in a revised answer and countersuit filed yesterday in federal court in Columbus, rejected NetJets’ claims and alleged that four of the company’s units owe unpaid taxes and penalties. NetJets Aviation Inc. owes more than $302.1 million, and another unit, NetJets International, is liable for $52.9 million, the U.S. said. Executive Jet Management Inc. owes $10 million while NetJets Large Aircraft owes $1.19 million, the U.S. claimed.
  

Fox News:

• Factor Investigation: Ex-Obama Official Running Sandra Fluke. (video) As we reported last night "The Factor" believes that the Sandra Fluke contraception controversy was manufactured to divert attention away from the Obama administration's disastrous decision to force Catholic non-profit organizations to provide insurance coverage for birth control and the morning after pill. That might very well be unconstitutional.
  

CNBC.com:

• Banks Sit on Huge Aluminum Stocks, Collect Rent. New fronts are opening up in Europe and Asia in the battle between banks and trading houses to expand their storage hubs for aluminum, a metal meant for use in manufacturing but increasingly viewed as a store of value.
• Most Wealthy Americans Think US Still in Recession. Wealthier Americans aren't very optimistic about the economic recovery, with a surprising 63 percent saying the US is still in a recession, according to a new poll. Some 55 percent think the economy won’t fully recover until 2013 or later, and 14 percent say the recession won’t end at all.

Zero Hedge:

• Why JPM(JPM) Sees A "Lot More Printing" By The ECB.
• Part Time Workers Celebrate The Recovery With Soaring Gun Purchases.
• Greece - Round III, In Which We Learn That Greek Debt Actually INCREASED Post-Default.
  

New York Times:

• New Republic Gets an Owner Steeped in New Media. The newest owner of The New Republic magazine is Chris Hughes, a new-media guru who co-founded Facebook and helped to run the online organizing machine for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

PowerIntelligence:

• BrightSource Hunts For Mega Solar Funding. BrightSource is talking to lenders about securing several hundred million in debt for a large concentrating solar project this year.
  

BoyGenius:

• 'Anonymous' Hackers Lead Norton AntiVirus Source Code. Hackers associated with the group “Anonymous” have published Symantec’s(SYMC) Norton AntiVirus source code on The Pirate Bay. The source code was stolen in 2006 and after alleged attempts to extort money from Symantec failed, the hactivist group released it late Thursday evening.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).

Reuters:

• GE(GE) Sees Slower Revenue Growth in Southeast Asia. With China's growth losing steam from its peak of more than 10 percent, GE is increasingly dependent on a strong performance in Southeast Asia.
• GE's(GE) Immelt Sees Long Period of Unstable Economies. General Electric Co will keep its focus on boosting its dividend and improving margins as it faces what Chief Executive Jeff Immelt expects to be an extended period of economic instability. "We live in what most business commentators call a volatile world. I would argue that when the environment is continuously unstable, it is no longer volatile. Rather, we have entered a new economic era," the head of the largest U.S. conglomerate said in his annual letter to shareholders. "It could remain this way for a long time."
• ISDA Declares Greek Credit Event, CDS Payments Triggered.
  

MailOnline:

• Is This Greek Rescue the Biggest Scam in History or Ponzi Finance 101? Don’t you love Europe? The way it messes with your head. The way really, really bad things somehow get blotted out in so much waffle, double-speak and spin, you start doubting your own instincts. Like, is it you or is it them?
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.39%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.40% 2) Road & Rail -.17% 3) Energy -.04%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ELP, RCL, CUK, AUY, BODY, HMIN, GMCR, HIBB, MTGE, QCOR, CTRP, EXPE, XRTX, WPPGY, MLNX, SPG, PLL, ISH and HALO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DHI 2) GME 3) SYMC 4) ZION 5) AIG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLL 2) MDT 3) HIBB 4) GM 5) BHI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.58%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.09% 2) Oil Tankers +1.94% 3) Disk Drives +1.49%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IBN, HNP, CHL, QSFT, TPCG, VOCS, FSLR, MCP, LPS, ANN, COO, DHI, WLT, CLF, USG, HUN, CBT, TOL, LEN, APC, ARO, BECN, MRX, ITB, ZUMZ and INVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCL 2) ZION 3) HEK 4) S 5) GMCR
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DHI 2) CI 3) BA 4) NAV 5) KSS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Investors Agree to Swap About 85% of Greek Debt. Private investors agreed to swap about 85 percent of their Greek government bonds for new securities in the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history, according to a banker briefed on the results. Preliminary indications showed that as much as 155 billion euros ($205 billion) of the 177 billion euros of Greek-law bonds were offered, said the banker, who declined to be identified. Twelve billion euros of debt not under Greek law was also tendered, as was 7 billion euros of bonds from state-owned companies guaranteed by the government, the banker said.
• Greece's New Bond Yields May Reach 20% After Exchange, Morgan Stanley Says. Yields on Greece’s new bonds may climb to as high as 20 percent amid “material risks” stemming from implementation of terms for the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, according to Morgan Stanley. Traders are offering to buy and sell the potential new bonds at yields on 11-year securities of 22 percent, according to a person familiar with the prices who declined to be identified. Yields on exchanged Greek debt may be about 13 percent to 17 percent “in the medium term” as the nation faces an election and seeks to comply with terms of its bailout and debt-reduction programs, New York-based Morgan Stanley said yesterday in a research report.
• Draghi's Oil Dilemma Risks Exacerbating Recession: Euro Credit. ECB President Mario Draghi is trapped between accelerating inflation and slowing growth, making it hard for him to defend countries such as Italy and Spain from the ravages of recession. The central bank yesterday revised its inflation forecast for the euro area to an average rate of 2.4% this year, up from a December prediction for prices to rise by 2%. The new projections show the economy may contract .1%, down from a previous forecast for .3% growth. With at least six of the 17 euro nations in recession, the latest forecasts may mean Draghi, who cut interest rates at his first two monthly meetings as head of the central bank, won't be able to reduce borrowing costs further as efforts to resuscitate growth by lending unlimited funds to banks lose steam.
  
• China Should Maintain Property Curbs to Prevent Chaos, Developer Lo Says. China should maintain its property curbs as any relaxation may result in a “chaotic” housing market, said billionaire developer Vincent Lo, also a member of the government’s advisory board. Home prices may post a “single-digit” decline this year, said Lo, chairman of Shui On Land Ltd. (272), a Shanghai-based developer. Property values in the nation’s city centers will hold up, he said, adding that he doesn’t expect a property crash this year. “Unless something dramatic happens in the international economy, these more restrictive measures will remain for at least another 18 months,” Lo said. The nation’s developers will probably face more credit rating downgrades over the next six months as refinancing risks increase, according to Standard & Poor’s. Home prices may fall 10 percent by June from a year earlier, according to an S&P report yesterday that said “the worst is yet to come” for developers.
  
• China's Economy a Bigger Worry Than Yuan: Samual Sherraden. Domestic and foreign economic pressures are causing cracks to emerge. Domestically, over-investment and excess capacity weigh on China’s economy. The housing market is deflating and the local-government debt on banks’ balance sheets will limit future fiscal stimulus. Monetary authorities are constrained from further easing for fear of inflation. And China’s major export markets -- the U.S. and Europe -- are facing slow growth at best.
• Texas Instruments Cuts Forecasts on Lower Demand for Its Wireless Products. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), the world’s largest maker of analog semiconductors, reduced its first- quarter sales and profit forecasts, citing lower demand for products that let wireless devices connect and run applications. Revenue will be $2.99 billion to $3.11 billion, the Dallas- based company said today in a statement. Analysts on average had estimated $3.16 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Net income will be 15 cents to 19 cents a share, Texas Instruments said, compared with projections of 21 cents. Texas Instruments is the top supplier of chips that provide key functions in electronic devices ranging from missiles to mobile phones, making the company’s earnings an indicator of demand across the economy. Vice President Ron Slaymaker said the weakness in wireless was in connectivity products and OMAP processors, which run programs in smartphones and tablets. Some clients have cut their expectations for demand and reduced inventory, he said on a conference call. “Everybody in the tablet and handset market will overestimate the success they’re having, then end up eating inventory,” said Cody Acree, an analyst at Williams Financial Group in Dallas. Slaymaker declined to identify which Texas Instruments customers, or how many, had cut back orders.
• 'Anonymous' Hacker Sabu Worked Around the Clock to Aid U.S. Hector Xavier Monsegur, a member of the Anonymous, Internet Feds and LulzSec hacker groups, began working "around the clock" to inform on his colleagues immediately after his arrest, prosecutors told a judge. Monsegur, who pleaded guilty Aug. 15, began cooperating with U.S. authorities, including Federal Bureau of Investigation agents, after he was arrested June 7, Assistant U.S. Attorney James Pastore told U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska at a court hearing in August, an unsealed transcript shows. Monsegur, who used the nickname Sabu and is described as an "influential member" of all three groups, admitted to staging cyber attacks against the websites of the governments of Algeria, Yemen and Zimbabwe, according to a criminal information unsealed March 6. He also said he conducted hacks on Tribune Co. and News Corp.'s Fox television, prosecutors said.
• Oil Rises a Third Day. Oil for April delivery advanced as much as 37 cents to $106.95 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.90 at 1:51 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday climbed 0.4 percent to $106.58, the highest close since March 5. Prices are up 20 cents this week and have gained 8.2 percent this year. Brent oil for April settlement was at $125.50 a barrel, up 6 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Chinese Politburo Member Signals Wealth Gap Breached Unrest Trigger Point. China’s wealth gap has now exceeded the point that triggers widespread social unrest, according to figures revealed by Politburo member Bo Xilai, in a rare disclosure of the country’s income disparity. China’s Gini coefficient, an index of the income gap, has exceeded 0.46, Bo, the Communist Party Secretary for Chongqing Municipality, told reporters in Beijing today, without giving specifics. The index ranges from 0 to 1 and the 0.4 mark is used as a predictor by analysts for social disturbances. Bo, 62, has reintroduced slogans and songs from the late Chairman Mao Zedong in a bid to re-instill a Communist spirit in a country that still officially adheres to the principles espoused by Karl Marx. So-called mass incidents in China -- strikes, riots and other disturbances -- doubled from 2006 to 2010 as China’s wealth gap rose, according to Sun Liping, a professor at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. China’s Gini coefficient -- and hence its wealth gap -- has risen more than any other Asian economy in the last two decades, according to Murtaza Syed, the International Monetary Fund’s resident representative in Beijing, citing World Bank data. Syed told reporters in Beijing last month that the high wealth gap may hurt China’s long-term growth prospects. “If China becomes more and more unequal, it may find it very hard to keep growing at anywhere near the rates it’s been growing,” Syed said on Feb. 22.

Wall Street Journal:

• CBOE(CBOE) Executive Put on Leave Amid SEC Probe. The largest U.S. options exchange has put its most senior compliance officer on leave in the wake of an investigation by U.S. market regulators into the company's oversight of traders, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Deutsche Bank(DB) Bank Took ECB Loans. Deutsche Bank AG took between €5 billion and €10 billion ($6.6 billion and $13.1 billion) as part of the European Central Bank's lending program last week, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• European Commission Raises Hungary Deficit Forecasts - Agency. A background analysis by the European Commission obtained by Hungarian news website Portfolio.hu late Thursday raised Hungary's budget deficit outlook for 2012 and 2013.
• U.S., Jordan Discuss Securing Syria Cache. Fears Mount Over Suspected Chemical, Biological Weapons. The American and Jordanian militaries are jointly developing plans to secure what is believed to be Syria's vast stockpile of chemical and biological weapons, said U.S. and Arab officials briefed on the discussions. The groundwork comes amid mounting concerns about Damascus's arsenal of nerve agents and mustard gas at a time of growing instability in the country. One plan would call for Jordanian Special Operations units, acting as part of any broader Arab League peacekeeping mission, to go into Syria to secure nearly a dozen sites thought to contain weapons, these officials said.
• BofA(BAC) Makes a Deal on Side. More than 200,000 financially strapped households will have a chance to sharply reduce their mortgage balances under a side deal negotiated by Bank of America Corp. that could allow the bank to avoid as much as $850 million in penalties. Under the arrangement, part of the recent $25 billion settlement of alleged foreclosure abuses between government officials and five large lenders, Bank of America will make deeper and broader cuts in balances than other banks. The plan will offer qualifying borrowers a chance to cut their mortgage balances to their home's current market value.
• IMF Chief: Warns Against 'Shorting' Italy Given Rome's Economic Reforms.
• MF Global Executives Still Set to Get Bonuses. Three top executives of MF Global Holdings Ltd. when it collapsed could get bonuses of as much as several hundred thousand dollars each under a plan by a trustee overseeing the securities firm's bankruptcy case, people familiar with the matter said. Louis Freeh, the former Federal Bureau of Investigation director now in charge of unwinding what is left of the New York company, is expected to ask a bankruptcy-court judge as soon as this month to approve performance-related payouts for the chief operating officer, finance chief and general counsel at MF Global, these people said.
• FBI Traces Trail of Spy Ring to China. Federal agents were searching Walter and Christina Liew's home here last July for evidence of corporate espionage when a safe deposit box key caught their attention. They asked Ms. Liew if she knew where the bank was located. Her husband told her in Chinese to say she didn't, according to an account later given by federal prosecutors. An agent who understood Chinese picked up on the exchange and followed Ms. Liew as she left the house, drove to an Oakland bank and tried to empty a safe deposit box the key fit.
• Exxon(XOM) Rips U.S. Push on Fracking Oversight. Federal efforts to expand oversight of oil and gas drilling are threatening to derail development of U.S. energy without necessarily improving safety, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Rex Tillerson said Thursday. The push by the Environmental Protection Agency and a handful of other agencies to have a say in the controversial drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," has had little impact so far on energy giant Exxon, Mr. Tillerson said in an interview following the company's analysts meeting in New York on Thursday.
• Spain Tests Europe's Resolve on Devicits. It hasn't taken long for the euro zone's new tough budget rules to face their first big test. Spain's stand-off with Brussels over the size of its 2012 budget deficit has presented officials in the city with a dilemma: How do they preserve the credibility of the tighter fiscal rules without triggering a Greece-style downward economic spiral by forcing Spain to slash its deficit too vigorously? Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy formally opened the issue last week when he announced that Spain's new budget-deficit target would not be the 4.4% that his predecessor agreed last year with the European Commission in Brussels—but 5.8%. The reason: last year's deficit turned out to be 8.5%-not the 6% target that this year's goal was based on. Hitting the agreed 2012 target would cut domestic demand by four percentage points, further squeezing Spain's already shrinking economy. It wasn't only Mr. Rajoy's unilateral decision that upset the Brussels bureaucracy. It was the way he framed it, telling reporters: "This is a sovereign decision made by Spain that I am announcing now, to you."

MarketWatch:

• Videogame Sales Slide Again in February. Videogame sales fell sharply in February, worse than analysts’ had expected, and making for a third straight month of declines for a sector suffering from a lack of compelling new releases. According to data from NPD Group late Thursday, sales of game software in the U.S. slid by 23% during the month compared to the same period last year. That was an improvement over the stunning 38% drop in January, but still deeper than the 8% to 19% drop modeled by analysts. NPD data only includes sales made through traditional retail outlets and not those made over digital channels.

Business Insider:

• The 'Biggest Surprise' From GE's(GE) Investor Meeting Should Serve As A Warning To All Investors.
• Australian Gold Sales Collapsed.
• Failed UK Rescue Effort Ends In Death Of Two Hostages Held By Nigerian Islamic Terrorists.
• A Brief History of Goldman Sachs(GS), The Most Hated Bank In The World.
  

Zero Hedge:

• US Budget Deficit Hits All Time High In February. (graph)
• Reuters Reports That Hedge Funds Have Found Greek Default Trigger Loophole.
  

CNBC:

• EU Debt Issue to Rile Markets for 'Many More Years'. Wall Street may breathe a sigh of relief with the apparent success of the Greek bond swap, but the European debt issue will continue to rile the markets for “many more years to come.” “Even if we band aid this Greek situation right now, they’re going to default down the road or write down 100 percent of the debt,” said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. Wren projects that Greece will likely require further bailouts and other European nations such as Portugal and Spain may even jump on the bandwagon. In addition, Wren said he would not be surprised to see the market take a breather in the near-term, following the recent rally and expected slowdown in the global economy this year.
• China Inflation Rate Hits 20-Month Low as Economy Slows. China's annual rate of consumer inflation slowed sharply to a 20-month low of 3.2 percent in February, comfortably within Beijing's 2012 target of 4 percent. "The latest CPI number is mainly because of the dissipation of the Chinese New Year effect. Prices came down after the holiday, especially food prices," said Kevin Lai, economist at Daiwa in Hong Kong.
• Fisker Karma Car Dies in Consumer Reports Testing. A $100,000-plus Fisker Automotive luxury sports car died during Consumer Reports speed testing this week for reasons that are still unknown, leaving the struggling electric car startup with another blow to its image. "It is a little disconcerting that you pay that amount of money for a car and it lasts basically 180 miles before going wrong," David Champion, senior director for the magazine's automotive test center, told Reuters, on Thursday.

IBD:

• Chipotle(CMG) Stock Price Rises on Aggressive Growth Plan.
  

USA Today:

• Gas Prices Must Come Down, Consumers Say. Consumers fretting about soaring gasoline prices say President Obama and Congress must act to keep them from rising further, a Gallup Poll finds. An overwhelming number of consumers — 85% — say Obama and Congress should take "immediate" action to keep a lid on prices. After nearly four weeks of daily price increases, regular gasoline averages $3.76 a gallon nationwide. Industry analysts still expect a $4 top by Memorial Day, although prices could rise to $5 a gallon if escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt crude oil shipments. At $5, about 30% of those surveyed by Gallup say they would have to make major changes in their lives and significant cutbacks in spending. About 28% say $4 gas would prompt similar changes.

Reuters:

• Starbucks(SBUX) to Sell Single-Serve Coffee Brewers. Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) said it will launch its own single-cup coffee and espresso drink machine later this year, putting it in direct competition with partner Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR.O), seller of the popular Keurig home brewers. Shares of Green Mountain plunged as much as 24 percent in after-hours trade, but regained some ground after Starbucks said on a conference call that it would continue to supply Green Mountain with Starbucks-branded single-serve coffee pods called K-cups. Starbucks shares rose 3 percent to $51.87.
• Banks Foreclosing on US Churches in Record Numbers. Banks are foreclosing on America's churches in record numbers as lenders increasingly lose patience with religious facilities that have defaulted on their mortgages, according to new data. The surge in church foreclosures represents a new wave of distressed property seizures triggered by the 2008 financial crash, analysts say, with many banks no longer willing to grant struggling religious organizations forbearance. Since 2010, 270 churches have been sold after defaulting on their loans, with 90 percent of those sales coming after a lender-triggered foreclosure, according to the real estate information company CoStar Group. In 2011, 138 churches were sold by banks, an annual record, with no sign that these religious foreclosures are abating, according to CoStar. That compares to just 24 sales in 2008 and only a handful in the decade before.

Telegraph:

• Legal Skull-Duggery in Greece May Doom Portugal. Europe has ring-fenced Greece's debt crisis for now but its escalating recourse to legal legerdemain has shattered the trust of global bond markets and may ultimately expose Portugal, Spain, and Italy to greater danger. "The rule of law has been treated with contempt," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. "This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Portugal."
• Germany's Monetary Doyen Slams ECB's 'Shocking' Balance Sheet. The doyen of German monetarism has denounced the stimulus policies of the European Central Bank as a dangerous leap into the unknown, giving voice to growing misgivings among the German policy elite. Jurgen Stark, the ECB's former chief economist and Germany's board member until two months ago, said the blitz of lending had corrupted collateral standards and risked inflation. "The balance sheet of the euro system isn't just gigantic in size but also shocking in quality," he said. Unlimited lending to banks for three years has pushed the ECB's balance sheet to over €3 trillion (£2.5 trillion), overtaking the US Federal Reserve to become the world's most activist bank.

Shanghai Securities News:

• China Won't Relax Property Curbs Soon. The Chinese government will continue real estate curbs "resolutely" in 2012, citing China's housing minister Jiang Weixin. Jiang is confident in home price drops in tier 1 cities.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +2.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 156.0 -8.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 126.75 -6.75 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +.27%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANN)/.08
• (CCL)/-.01
• (HIBB)/.56
• (PNY)/1.20
  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for January is estimated to widen to -$49.0B versus -$48.8B in December.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 243K in January.
• The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 8.3% versus 8.3% in January.
• Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in December..
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EuroGroup Conference Call on Greece could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.