Thursday, December 06, 2012

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.22%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -2.04% 2) Insurance -.61% 3) Paper -.53%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • LANC, KBW, GMCR, MMR, TI, MTDR, E, AIG, SBGI, TVL, MXL, VRA, MW, MMR, PXP, EPAY, FCX, UTIW, MEMP, ALGN, ASNA, AMAP, FRAN, FBC, SNI, ALLT, NTES, TD, OXM, PBYI, MRC, SHLD, E, DB, SAI, MW, COST and STRA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) JNPR 2) BAX 3) VMW 4) STZ 5) FCX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MMR 2) JDSU 3) LVS 4) DRI 5) BAX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.44%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gmaing +1.99% 2) Restaurants +1.52% 3) Computer Hardware +1.08%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LNG, EPHC, ATHN, SWY, MGM, AKAM, WLT, GRMN, FNSR, PANL and JCP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SWY 2) INFA 3) AKAM 4) MGM 5) WLT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LMCA 2) TROW 3) T 4) AKAM 5) SIRI
Charts:

Thursday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.50 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (HITK)/.52
  • (SFD)/.43
  • (HRB)/-.40
  • (COO)/1.55
  • (KFY)/.19
  • (SWHC)/.23
  • (TITN)/.65 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 380K versus 393K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3275K versus 3287K prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB rate decision, BoE rate decision, Eurozone GDP, 3Q Household Net Worth report, Challenger Job Cuts report for Nov., RBC Consumer Outlook Index for December, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (NUAN) analyst day, (EFX) investor day, (IGT) investor conference and the (BRCM) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Fiscal Cliff Hopes, Short-Covering, Seasonal Strength, Financial Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.41 -4.15%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +85.0%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -17.31%
  • NYSE Arms .54 -48.75%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.53 -1.83%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 151.69 -.68%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.63 bps +2.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 221.57 bps -1.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 bp
  • TED Spread 22.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +1 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 135.0 -1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.90/Metric Tonne +.68%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.70 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.62%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.81% 2) Homebuilders -2.10% 3) Retail -.53%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • FCX, ALTR, TIBX, QLIK, IAG, AAPL, AGO, FMX, TSO, HFC, DISH, E, MBT, MFRM, MIND, OXM, SCSS, TTC, SYNT, CKH, HXM, OCN, BIG, RHT, EDU, VIPS, QIHU, SODA, OKS, BKE, NFLX, TDC, DDS and RGR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WDC 2) PBI 3) FCX 4) SBUX 5) OIH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NVDA 2) ALTR 3) ADTN 4) MFRM 5) P
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.64%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +3.29% 2) Disk Drives +1.87% 3) Computer Hardware +1.34%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AVAV, MMR, PXP, LEAP, LFC, TEA, CP, CIE, EXXI, WDC and C
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PXP 2) SYMC 3) APC 4) DNR 5) IGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AVAV 2) CTSH 3) WDC 4) BBT 5) BF/A
Charts: