Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Semis +1.33% 2) Oil Tankers +1.19% 3) Software +.99%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- INFA, QLIK, PG, CHUY, SYNA, NFLX, TPX, QLGC, KLAC, CPHD, EFII, OSK, HAL, ADSK, CPWR, SHO, ROSE, CRUS, RMD, OSK, LRCX and TEX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) KEY 2) UA 3) LMT 4) EA 5) VRSN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) MCRS 2) RMD 3) JNPR 4) INFA 5) RTN
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- ECB to Give First Indication of Three-Year Loan Repayment Today. The
European Central Bank will give
a first indication today of how much of its 1 trillion euros ($1.33
trillion) in three-year loans banks plan to repay early. In a statement
at around noon in Frankfurt, the ECB will say how much of the first
three-year loan banks have pledged to hand back at the first early-repayment opportunity on Jan. 30.
They will initially repay 84 billion euros, according to the
median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Some 150 billion euros of the first loan, which totaled 489
billion euros, will be given back early as banks continue to
repay the funds over coming weeks, the survey shows.
- Monti Says Monte Paschi Bailout Hinges on Bank of Italy Review. Banca
Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA’s 3.9 billion-euro ($5.2 billion)
government bailout may face a delay after Prime Minister Mario Monti
called for a further review of the bank’s accounts. Monti said the
Bank of Italy will take another look at the bank’s books after the
company disclosed this week it may face more than 700 million euros of
losses related to structured finance transactions hidden from
regulators. Monte Paschi (BMPS) shareholders are voting on a capital
increase today to pave the way for the emergency government loans.
- EU to Embark on Strong Bank-Structure Overhaul, Barnier Says. Michel
Barnier, the European Union’s financial services chief, said that he
will present proposals this year for a “strong reform” of bank structure
in a bid to prevent lenders from being too-big-to-fail. The EU
plans will “separate well the risks in the banking sector,” the European
Commissioner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Caroline
Connan yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The
proposals may be published by September, he said.
- China's New
Leaders May Introduce Property Curbs, BofA Cui Says. China's new
government may introduce new curbs on the property market when it takes
power in March, hurting the outlook for the nation's equities, according
to David Cui, equity strategist at Bank of America Corp. The
"potential negative triggers" for stocks are policies to restrain the
rebound in real-estate prices and so-called shadow banking, Cui said.
"The sensitive period I would watch out for is after the National
People's Congress in early March when the new leaders are installed," he
said. "There may be a change in policy."
- China’s Stocks Fall to One-Week Low as Liquor Makers Decline. Chinese
stocks fell to a one-week low as declines by consumer-staple and
financial shares overshadowed advances among health-care companies.
Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519) slumped 2.8 percent, leading a gauge of
consumer-staple companies to a one-month low. Financial shares were the
biggest drag on the CSI 300 Index after valuations climbed to a 10-month
high. Goertek Inc., an Apple Inc.
supplier, dropped to a five-week low after the U.S. company’s
shares slumped on earnings.
- Billionaire Kotak Says Bad Debts Are No. 1 Threat to India Banks. Billionaire Uday
Kotak, the controlling shareholder of the Indian bank with the highest
lending margins, said the nation’s increasing sour debts pose the
biggest threat to its lenders. “The No. 1 focus and concern for the system, the banking system, is
rising bad loans,” Kotak, 53, said yesterday in an interview with
Bloomberg Television from the Swiss city of Davos while attending the
World Economic Forum. “A lot of large corporates have got themselves
over-leveraged, and that’s where the pain is.”
- Billionaire Icahn Says No Respect for Ackman Herbalife(HLF) Bet. Billionaire
investor Carl Icahn, saying he doesn’t “like” or “respect” fellow
hedge-fund manager William Ackman, criticized the way Ackman publicized a
bet that shares of Herbalife Ltd. would decline. “You don’t go out and
get a room full of people to badmouth the company,”
Icahn said today in an interview with Trish Regan on Bloomberg
Television’s “Street Smart.” “If you want to be in that business, why
don’t you join the SEC,” Icahn added, referring to the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission.
- Singapore’s Biggest Deals Hit by Property Curbs: Southeast Asia.
Singapore’s latest round of measures to curb record property prices has
become a stumbling block in the city-state’s two-biggest corporate
takeover
deals.
- Japan CPI Fall Shows Challenge For Central Bank Price Target. Japan’s consumer prices declined for
the seventh time in eight months, highlighting the challenge
facing the Bank of Japan (8301) to reach a 2 percent inflation target announced this week. Consumer
prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in December from a year
earlier, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today, matching the median
estimate of 23 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News.
- Apple(AAPL) Expands Audits, Says China Labor Agent Forged Documents. Apple Inc. (AAPL) expanded internal audits of suppliers and identified a Chinese labor agent hiring underage workers as the world’s most-valuable company moves to
boost conditions for people making iPhones and iPads. One manufacturer employed 74 children younger than 16, and
158 facilities lacked procedures or didn’t perform adequate
audits of their own suppliers, according to the annual Supplier
Responsibility Report released today by Cupertino, California-
based Apple.
Wall Street Journal:
- SEC Nominee Signals Shift. Obama Taps Ex-Prosecutor Mary Jo White, Portending Increased Policing of Wall Street.
President Barack Obama nominated a former prosecutor turned
white-collar criminal defender as his choice for top U.S. securities
regulator.
The nomination of Mary Jo White marks
the first time a former prosecutor has been chosen to lead the
Securities and Exchange Commission in its 79-year history. The move
could signal tougher policing of Wall Street.
- Pensions Bet Big With Private Equity. On the 13th floor of a sleek downtown office building here, the
trading desks are manned overnight. The chief investment officer favors
cowboy boots made of elephant skin. And when a bet pays off, even the
secretaries can be entitled to bonuses.
The office's occupant isn't a
highflying hedge fund but the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, a
public pension fund with 1.3 million members including schoolteachers,
bus drivers and cafeteria workers across the state.
- Pyongyang Plans Nuclear Detonation.
North Korea made its most explicit statement yet that it plans to
detonate another nuclear device—its third—in the near future, in what it
said was "a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle." The National Defense Commission, a body of generals considered the
most powerful part of North Korea's authoritarian regime, said the
country would launch "a variety of satellites and long-range rockets…one
after another" and carry out "a nuclear test of higher level."
- The Fight to Unseat Apple's(AAPL) iPhone Intensifies.
The iPhone ended the year with a blowout quarter in the U.S. market.
But underneath the big numbers at the largest U.S. carriers are signs
Apple Inc. faces a rapidly changing marketplace that could erode its
dominance.
- Citi(C) Adds to Drain of Funds at SAC. Multiple Relationships With Hedge-Fund Firm Are at Stake in Company's Decision to Redeem $187 Million.
- Cyprus Bailout Rifts Rekindle Broader Fears. A flap over a potential bailout for Cyprus is heightening anxieties
that the tiny island's economy could become the next flash point in the
euro zone's debt crisis. A rescue program for Cyprus will
require substantially reducing government and bank debt, Olli Rehn, the
European Union's economics commissioner, said in an interview Thursday
at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in a recognition that
a more-conventional bailout of the latest euro-zone country to hit
financial difficulties would leave it with too much debt.
- 'Disaster Bonds' Miss Their Mark. In December, an Iowa state agency issued $1.2 billion in municipal bonds
for an Egyptian company to build a fertilizer factory. The bonds
qualified for tax-exempt status under a U.S. program to aid Midwestern
states flooded in 2008. The "disaster bonds" got another boost from a loophole that was
perfectly legal: In 2010, state officials ruled, based on guidance from
the Internal Revenue Service, that companies could use such bonds even
if they weren't hurt by the devastating floods or located in the
hardest-hit parts of Iowa.
- Nicholas Eberstadt: Yes, Mr. President, We Are a Nation of Takers. Since 1960, entitlement transfers have grown twice as fast as personal income—to $2.3 trillion annually. In President Obama's second inaugural address, he not only outlined an
ambitious agenda for his second term but also seemed intent on shutting
down debate about the social-welfare state and its impact on American
life.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Earnings Narrowly Beat Street Forecast.
Software giant Microsoft reported quarterly earnings that were a penny
higher than Wall Street's forecasts and revenue that was just shy of
what analysts had expected
on Thursday despite a lift from its latest version of Windows.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
The Blaze:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
21st Century Business Herald:
- Ctrip.com(CTRP)
to Cut at Least 500 Sales People. The co. will cut all sales staff at
airports, railway stations and bus stations in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, citing sales people at the company.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Downgraded (GS) to Neutral, target $150.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.0 -.25 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (COV)/1.06
- (HAL)/.61
- (HON)/1.09
- (KMB)/1.35
- (OSK)/.34
- (PG)/1.11
- (WY)/.20
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for December are estimated to rise to 385K versus 377K in November.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The UK gdp reprt, Germany IFO data and the (WPI) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +1.3%
- Total Put/Call .86 -3.37%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.38 -.10%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 137.21 -.34%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 100.22 +1.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 213.47 +.43%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 +.75 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1 bp
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $148.60/Metric Tonne +.61%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.6 +2.4 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +198 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Spanish Jobless Rate Hits Record 26.0% After Rajoy’s First Year. The number of jobless approached 6 million people, or 26.02
percent, from 25.01 percent in the previous three months, the
National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. That matched
the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Spain is now home to a third of the euro region’s unemployed.
- Merkel Says Japanese Yen, Central-Bank Liquidity Are Concerns. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Japanese government’s call for
monetary easing and central- bank cash that’s been unleashed to stem
Europe’s debt crisis constitute risks to the global economic recovery.
“I can’t say I’m completely free of worry when I look at Japan right
now,” Merkel said today during a question-and- answer session after
addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. For Europe,
the “large amount of
liquidity” pumped into the financial system last year,
particularly to help banks, has to be mopped up again, she said.
- Osborne Says Credibility ‘Easily Lost’ as IMF Warns on Austerity. U.K.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said there can be no letup
in his budget-cutting program after the International Monetary Fund
urged him to consider easing the pace of austerity if the recovery
falters. “Credibility is very hard won and easily lost and it would be a huge mistake to put that at risk,” Osborne said at an event today at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
- Consumer Comfort Falls Amid Mounting Concern Over U.S. Economy. Consumer confidence fell last week
to its lowest level in more than three months as concern about
the U.S. economy mounted. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 36.4
in the seven days ended Jan. 20, the weakest since early
October, from minus 35.5 the prior period. The measure has
fallen for three straight weeks, the longest slump since August.
- Gasoline to U.S. Seen Slumping Amid Biggest Stocks in Years. The flow of European gasoline to the
U.S. is poised to decline in the next two weeks as record fuel
stocks for the time of year deter imports and cause shipping
rates to slump, a Bloomberg survey showed. Traders and oil companies will book 24 tankers to load the
fuel during the two weeks to Feb. 6, according to the median
estimate in a survey yesterday of seven shipbrokers and traders
specializing in the trade. A week ago they expected 27 ships to
be chartered in the corresponding period.
- Iron Ore Seen Falling in Second Quarter as China Restocking Ends. Iron
ore will almost erase the past two months’ rally and fall 19 percent in
the second quarter as weather stops disrupting supply and Chinese
restocking ends,
according to a Barclays Plc trader of the commodity.
The raw material used to make steel will average $120 a dry
metric ton in the three months from April, said Richard Lee, who
most accurately predicted Chinese ore imports in a September
survey of 11 analysts, traders and brokers. Iron ore traded at
$147.70 a ton yesterday, prices from The Steel Index Ltd. show.
- Kerry Issues Iran Warning as He Seeks Senate Confirmation. Senator John Kerry stressed the need
to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons as he described
the “immediate, dangerous challenges” for the nation that he
will deal with if confirmed as secretary of state. “The president has made it definitive -- we will do what
we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Kerry
said in testimony today to the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee. “And I repeat here today: our policy is not
containment. It is prevention, and the clock is ticking on our
efforts to secure responsible compliance.”
- EU Carbon Plunges 40% as Lawmakers Suggest Rejection of Glut Fix. European Union carbon prices plunged
a record 40 percent after a panel in the 27-nation bloc’s
parliament recommended rejection of a strategy to strengthen the
world’s biggest cap-and-trade market. The European Parliament’s industry committee advised
against the plan by the EU’s regulatory arm to change the
emissions-trading law to tackle a glut by 42 votes against
versus 18 for. Carbon permits for December sank to a record 2.81
euros ($3.75) a metric ton immediately after the ballot.
- Focus Media(FMCN) Says SEC Probes Possible Securities Violation. Focus
Media Holding Ltd. (FMCN) said the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission is probing potential “violations” of securities law, with
special attention to purchases and resales of companies including Allyes
Online Media Holding. The Shanghai-based advertising company is
cooperating with the SEC, it said in a regulatory filing on Jan. 18
about its going-private transaction with Carlyle Group LP (CG) and other
firms.
Fox News:
- Republicans challenge Clinton claims on budget cuts, Benghazi cable. Republicans are challenging a host of statements made by Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton and Democratic allies during Wednesday's heated
Libya testimony -- claiming that complaints about a lack of funding are
bogus and questioning the secretary's insistence she never saw urgent
cables warning about the danger of an attack.
CNBC:
- Leading Indicators Rise 0.5 Percent, Top Forecasts. A gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose in December, pointing to an improvement in growth despite an ongoing political fight in Washington over fiscal policy. The private Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index gained 0.5 percent to 93.9 last month, after being unchanged in November.
Zero Hedge:
- It's Official: Worst. Recovery. EVER. (graphs) As the following chart from the St Louis Fed shows, as of the just completed quarter, US GDP "growth" since the "recovery" is now the worst in US history, having just dipped below the heretofore lowest on record.
Reuters:
- Gold drops 1 pct on waning investor appetite. Gold fell 1.2 percent to a 10-day
low on Thursday after a repeated failure to break above a key
chart level hurt investor confidence in the metal. A recovery in gold prices this month ran out of steam as the
metal hit strong resistance at $1,695, its 55-day moving average
and early January high. After failing to break decisively above
that level for five straight sessions, gold fell.
- Red flags revealed in filings of firm linked to Caterpillar(CAT) fraud. A Chinese mining
equipment company at the centre of an alleged accounting fraud was also
involved in a web of insider loans and asset transfers prior to its
purchase by Caterpillar Inc., public filings show. The transactions, while not
illegal, should have sounded warnings about the company's finances when
the U.S. firm came calling last year, corporate governance experts said.
Financial Times:
- Business chiefs show backing for Cameron.
Business leaders including the chief executive of the London Stock
Exchange and the chairman of Standard Chartered have backed the British
prime minister’s plan for a referendum on EU membership. In a letter to The Times, 56 industry and City leaders said
they agreed with David Cameron that Britain’s “best chance of success is
as part of a reformed Europe”.
France 24:
- Italian retail sales drop 0.4% in November: Istat. Italian retail sales dropped 0.4 percent in November compared to the
level in October, official data showed on Thursday, in the fifth monthly
drop running. A breakdown of figures published by the national statistics institute
Istat showed that sales of food items had gained 0.1 percent, while
non-food sales were 0.6 percent lower on the month. On a 12-month basis, retail sales fell by 3.1 percent, Istat said. Retail sales dropped 2.0 percent in the 11-month period from January
to November 2012 compared to the same period in 2011, pulled down in
particular by non-food sales, which plunged 2.6 percent, Istat said.
Europe 1:
- Hollande Abandons Plan to Renew France's 75% Tax. President
Francois Hollande has abandoned plans to create a new version of his 75%
tax on earnings of more than 1 million euros. The tax was struck down
by France's highest court in December.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -2.23% 2) Steel -1.41% 3) Computer Hardware -1.15%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- AAPL, TCBI, BXS, CHU, NGLS, NGD, FIO, CVC, BPL, MLNX, FMCN, MKC, FBC, DBD, KMT, QIHU, UA, PLCM, PNRA, SNFCA, OSIS, NE, IACI, SKYW, VAR, CEO, CRUS, ISCA, TER, WAC, PMT, ALB, BPL, CATY, VFC and PLCM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) XRT 2) OIH 3) NFLX 4) PPG 5) KBH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) ALB 2) TIF 3) ALTR 4) PLCM 5) DBD
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Internet +2.25% 2) Coal +1.46% 3) Hospitals +1.44%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- TZOO, BPOP, IRBT, QSII, UBCI, SMCI, MXWL, IOC, CVI, SWFT, NFLX, INVN, FCS, BC, FFIV, AVT, TPX, GMCR, GBX, KNX, WERN and CNW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) NWS 2) TPX 3) DLTR 4) CAM 5) LSI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CVI 2) CBST 3) AMZN 4) IBM 5) LUV
Charts: