Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.58%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.56% 2) Homebuilders +1.49% 3) Airlines +1.23%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CIE, OMPI, WSM, FRAN, PLCM, SPRD, ADBE, TMH, TFM and HLS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WSM 2) FDX 3) SYMC 4) EVEP 5) GDXJ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SYNT 2) ADSK 3) EDU 4) GIS 5) APA
Charts:

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Spanish Banks Cut Developers as Zombies Dying: Mortgages. Spain’s zombie developers are finally about to die. Spanish banks are pulling the plug on thousands of builders kept alive during the past five years even as they built almost nothing, said Mikel Echavarren, chief executive officer of Irea, a Madrid-based consulting firm that has advised on 22 billion euros ($28.5 billion) of refinancing. The banks, forced by the government last year to set aside provisions for the developers, have no incentive to keep funding them. “Banks have taken the hit, so extend and pretend is over,” said Echavarren. “There’s no motivation to refinance companies that aren’t viable, have no liquidity or possibility of future earnings so we’ll see a tsunami of developer bankruptcies in the next two years.The final collapse of an industry that accounted for as much as 18 percent of Spain’s growth amid the country’s decade- long real estate boom will add to unemployment, already at a record 26 percent, depress consumer spending needed to turn around the economy and push down the value of residential real estate that’s already dropped more than 30 percent since 2007, said Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London. While job losses in the construction industry continued in recent quarters, “they’ve been less severe than expected given the scale of the real estate slump,” said Badiani. “With banks cutting financial life support to many developers living on borrowed time, we can expect an accelerated downward adjustment in employment levels.” Badiani estimates the jobless rate could climb to more than 27 percent this year and house prices will fall at least 50 percent from the peak by 2015
  • Europe Weighs Cyprus’s Fate After Lawmakers Reject Bailout Deal. European policy makers must weigh how far to push Cyprus after lawmakers in the Mediterranean nation rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, throwing into limbo a rescue package designed to keep it in the euro. Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden called for the 17 euro-area finance ministers to reconvene “as soon as possible” to cobble together a new package. The European Central Bank, whose Governing Council meets today in Frankfurt, will also have to decide whether to give Cyprus more time or consider cutting off liquidity to the country’s banks. “This is not a good result -- neither for Cyprus, nor for the euro zone, and we have to look together for alternatives to the negotiated package,” Frieden said yesterday in a phone interview from Frankfurt. He called the vote “very sad news,” though said the decision by its parliament must be respected. 
  • Two-Year Swap Spread in U.S. Surges to Highest Since September. The U.S. two-year interest-rate swap spread, a measure of debt market stress, surged to the highest level in six months as European policy makers struggle to forge a bailout plan for Cyprus. The gauge, which widens when investors seek the perceived safety of government securities and narrows when they favor assets such as company debentures, increased 2.9 basis points to 17.97 basis points as of 3:43 p.m. in New York. That’s the highest level on an intra-day basis since Sept. 4. “You’ve got the beginnings of an indicator of bank stress,” Jim Vogel, an interest-rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee, said in a telephone interview. Investors may “back away from risk commitments” given the uncertain outcome of Cyprus’s potential bank-deposit levy, he said.
  • North Korea Vows Military Action Against More U.S. B-52 Flights. North Korea warned of “strong military counter-action” if the U.S. again flies B-52 bombers over the Korean peninsula, with two flights this month after the totalitarian regime threatened preemptive nuclear strikes. The U.S. Pacific Air Forces Command successfully carried out the latest training flight, 7th Air Force spokeswoman Maj. Richelle Dowdell said in an e-mail yesterday without giving further details. A B-52 can carry nuclear warheads and air-to- ground missiles with a range of 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles).
  • Copper Seen Dropping as Stockpiles Increase. Copper is poised to decline 2 percent this year as supply outpaces demand and boosts stockpiles, while aluminum may advance as demand gains, said Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. World inventories may surge 16 percent to 1.3 million tons in 2013, or three weeks of consumption, it said. That compares with a December forecast of 1.1 million tons. Prices fell to a seven-month low yesterday on concerns that Europe’s debt turmoil will damp the economy and property curbs will erode demand in China, the biggest user. The country’s industrial output had the weakest start to a year since 2009 and copper imports slid to the lowest in 20 months in February, when there was a weeklong New Year holiday. Stockpiles are rising at an “alarming” rate, Barclays Plc said March 18. “Copper consumption is forecast to grow, primarily in emerging economies, but by a lower amount than the increase in production,” today’s report said. “The increase in supply will come from a number of large recently commissioned mines in Indonesia, Peru and Mongolia ramping up to full production.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • SEC Digging Into Fund Fees. Focus on Expenses Billed to Investors by Hedge Funds and Private-Equity Firms. The Securities and Exchange Commission is closely scrutinizing the fees and expenses, including travel and entertainment, that hedge funds and private-equity firms charge to their investors. Many managers of hedge funds and private-equity funds—collectively called "private investment advisers"—had long been largely unregulated and therefore had less oversight in how they billed their investors.
  • Demonstration Against Sequestration Has Reasons, but Few Rhymes. Federal Worker Unions Face Hurdles in Staging Protest; Signs Fall Short of Poetry. For many workers, this turns out not to be the most rousing cause. The cuts roll out slowly, in early April for some agencies and programs but not until May for others. Most agencies aim to trim around the edges to avoid layoffs. Workers in some departments aren't in line for furloughs at all, and for others it might be just a few days. "I'll be honest. People are saying 'you're giving me a day without pay? I'll take July 5,' " says Brent Barron, president of AFGE Local 648.
  • Visa(V) May Have to Buy Europe System. Visa Inc. could be forced to pay billions of dollars to buy the Visa Europe payments system, under a plan being discussed by the European banks that own the business. The shift would significantly expand Visa's footprint as it battles for a bigger share of the international market.
  • J.P. Morgan(JPM), Trustee for MF Global Reach Pact. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has reached a settlement that will return an estmated $546 million to MF Global Holdings Ltd. customers, likely bringing an end to a major chapter in customers' effort to recover money from the securities firm's 2011 collapse. J.P. Morgan, the trustee for the failed company's brokerage unit, and lawyers representing customer plaintiffs in the case filed their settlement agreement after finalizing terms in recent days, according to a person familiar with the process.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • Nigeria: Death Toll in Kano Bombing Rises to 41. The death toll of a suicide bombing in a Christian neighborhood of Kano on Monday has risen to at least 41, the police said Tuesday. At least 44 others were wounded, officials said. The Kano state police said that two men rammed an explosives-laden blue VW Golf into a full passenger bus in Kano, northern Nigeria’s busiest commercial center, the deadliest attack in nine months attributed to Islamic extremists.
CNN:
benzinga:
  • Cintas(CTAS) Trades Lower After Q3 Results; Lowers Full-Year Guidance Range. Uniform-maker Cintas released its fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell on Tuesday. The company reported earnings per share which were below Wall Street consensus, revenue which beat expectations and also lowered its full-year earnings guidance range. In late trading, the stock was last down a little more than two percent to $44.85.
Federal Computer Week:
  • Sources: Amazon(AMZN) and CIA Ink Cloud Deal. In a move sure to send ripples through the federal IT community, FCW has learned that the CIA has agreed to a cloud computing contract with electronic commerce giant Amazon, worth up to $600 million over 10 years. Amazon Web Services will help the intelligence agency build a private cloud infrastructure that helps the agency keep up with emerging technologies like big data in a cost-effective manner not possible under the CIA's previous cloud efforts, sources told FCW.
Reuters: 
  • Freddie Mac sues more than a dozen banks over Libor. U.S. mortgage finance company Freddie Mac is suing more than a dozen banks for losses from the alleged manipulation of the benchmark interest rate known as Libor. Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co, UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG are among the banks named as defendants in the lawsuit.
  • Adobe(ADBE) raises profit forecast as subscription model gains traction. Adobe Systems Inc, maker of Photoshop and Acrobat software, raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast after reporting first-quarter results above Wall Street estimates as more customers chose its subscription-based model. The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to about $1.45 per share from about $1.40 per share, above analysts' estimates of $1.41 per share. Shares of the company, which said Chief Technology Officer Kevin Lynch would be leaving, rose 7 percent in extended trade.
  • Anadarko(APC) makes large oil find in Gulf of Mexico. "The successful Shenandoah-2 well marks one of Anadarko's largest oil discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico," Bob Daniels, Anadarko's head of exploration, said in a statement. Log and pressure data from the appraisal well indicate excellent-quality reservoir and fluid properties and more drilling will be done to advance this "potentially giant project," Daniels said.
Telegraph:
  • OECD cuts French growth forecast. The OECD trimmed its growth forecast for France and said it must do more to boost competitiveness and create jobs, but recommended the government avoid more spending cuts to meet it EU deficit reduction pledges.
BBC:
  • Cyprus warned over parliament's bailout rejection. Germany's finance minister has warned Cyprus that its crisis-stricken banks may never be able to reopen if it rejects the terms of a bailout. Wolfgang Schaeuble said major Cypriot banks were "insolvent if there are no emergency funds".
China Securities Journal:
  • China may lower threshold for short selling and margin trading, citing people from securities companies.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • Beijing May Tighten Home Buying Restrictions for Singles. Beijing may allow single or divorced local residents to own only one home, citing people who participated in drafting the rules. 
Want China Times: 
  • Local governments await Beijing's new rules on housing market. Local governments in China are still awaiting the implementation of housing market curbs at ministerial level before they announce their own policies, despite allegations that a leaked copy from the central authorities has surfaced recently, the Guangzhou-based 21st Century Business Herald reports.
Evening Recommendations 
Raymond James:
  • Rated (TFM) Strong Buy, target $50.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.50 new series.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 82.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (GIS)/.57
  • (ATU)/.37
  • (LEN)/.15
  • (FDX)/1.38
  • (JBL)/.54
  • (GES)/.87
  • (ORCL)/.66
  • (MLHR)/.28 
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,000,000 barrels versus a +2,624,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -2,000,000 barrels versus a -3,571,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a +83,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated unch. versus a -1.2% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • (TRMB) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke speaking, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, UK FY13 Budget, Germany PPI, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, BB&T Industrial Conference, (TEX) analyst meeting, (FLS) analyst day, (JBLU) analyst day and the (CRM) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Surging Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Commodity/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 14.61 +9.36%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -22.1%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +5.56%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -29.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.95 +3.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 162.13 +6.45%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.0 +.39%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 246.07 +1.7%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +3.0 bps
  • TED Spread 21.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -2.25 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp
  • Yield Curve 166.0 -4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $134.40/Metric Tonne -.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.90 +5.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -33 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
  • Cyprus Rejects Deposit Levy in Blow to European Bailout Plan. Cyprus’s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, dealing a blow to European plans to force savers to shoulder part of the country’s bailout in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Cypriot legislators in the capital Nicosia voted 36 against the proposal with none in favor in a show of hands today. There were 19 abstentions. Hammered out by euro-area finance chiefs at the weekend, the deal had sought to raise 5.8 billion euros ($7.5 billion) by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for 10 billion euros in international aid. “There is no precedent for what would happen if Cyprus rejected the conditions,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, wrote in a note before the vote. “Our best guess is that Europe would give Cyprus a brief and final chance to rethink and vote again.”
  • European Car-Sales Drop Accelerates on Decline in Germany. Europe’s car-sales contraction accelerated in February as a steepening decline in Germany, the region’s biggest market, hurt previously resilient Volkswagen AG (VOW), Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG. Registrations dropped 10 percent to 829,359 vehicles last month from 923,553 a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement. Two-month sales fell 9.3 percent to 1.75 million cars. The decline in January amounted to 8.5 percent
  • Cyprus Deposit Raid Stokes Senior Bond Concerns. Europe’s unprecedented tax on Cyprus bank deposits is raising concern among holders of senior bank bonds that they’ll be made to take losses should another country need rescuing. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps insuring senior debt of 25 banks and insurers rose as much as 19 basis points to 162 basis points yesterday, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest jump since Aug. 2, before the European Central Bank steadied markets by announcing its bond-buying program, and the gauge is now at the highest in almost three weeks.
  • Irish Foreclosure Wave Risks Housing Recovery: Mortgages. Irish bankers preparing for the biggest wave of foreclosures in the nation’s history are struggling with how to dispose of the homes as the central bank pressures them to go after owners of investment properties. Ireland, which had the biggest real estate crash in Europe with a 50 percent plunge in residential prices since 2007, is only now contemplating significant repossessions. The focus is on the so-called buy-to-let market, or properties bought to rent, which jumped during Ireland’s decade-long real estate boom, and now account for more than a fifth of the 142 billion- euro ($184 billion) mortgage market.
  • Euro at Almost Three-Month Low as Cyprus Delays Vote. “The uncertainty regarding the vote is helping the market try to challenge a very key support at $1.2872, $1.2874 and $1.2876, which are absolutely key levels for euro-dollar,” said Sebastien Galy, a foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Societe Generale SA, said in a telephone interview. The euro’s drop reflects “deeper uncertainty regarding the outcome of the vote, the timing of the vote for that matter, and the general willingness to buy the dollar as a hedge.” The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.2899 as of 11:51 a.m. in New York, touching the weakest since Nov. 23.
  • European Stocks Fall on Concern Cyprus to Reject Bank Tax. National Bank of Greece SA led a gauge of lenders to the lowest close this year. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) sank the most since 2011 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the shares. ThyssenKrupp AG fell the most in a year after a report the German steelmaker is considering raising capital. Cie. Financiere Richemont SA slid the most in almost two months as an investor sold a stake in the luxury-goods company.
  • Japan Vows Foreign-Policy Response to Territorial Incursions. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signaled he will implement a more robust foreign policy in the midst of disputes with Russia and China that underscore his push to boost defense spending. Japan yesterday said two Russian fighter jets intruded on its airspace, which Russia’s Defense Ministry denied. The alleged incursion followed accusations that Chinese ships used weapons-targeting radar on a Japanese destroyer and helicopter last month near islands claimed by both countries. China today issued a denial and accused Japan of spreading falsehoods, while the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo summoned the Chinese ambassador. “When our sovereignty and national interests are threatened we must change our foreign policy to firmly express our point of view,” Abe told parliament today.
  • Vale(VALE) Slumps to Six-Month Low as Goldman Cuts Iron Ore Forecast. Vale SA (VALE5), the world’s biggest iron- ore producer, fell to a six-month low after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its price estimate for the commodity this year. The shares slumped 3.5 percent to 32.51 reais at 1:05 p.m. in Sao Paulo. A close at that level would be the lowest since Sept. 4. The stock contributed the most to the benchmark Bovespa index (IBOV)’s 1.4 percent drop today. “The two key drivers of this more subdued outlook are the growing role of scrap in Chinese steel production, and ongoing investment in Chinese domestic iron-ore production,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Workers Saving Too Little to Retire. Workers and employers in the U.S. are bracing for a retirement crisis, even as the stock market sits near highs and the economy shows signs of improvement. New data show that powerful financial and demographic forces are combining to squeeze individuals and companies that are trying to save for the future and make their money last.
    Fifty-seven percent of U.S. workers surveyed reported less than $25,000 in total household savings and investments excluding their homes, according to a report to be released Tuesday by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Only 49% reported having so little money saved in 2008. The survey also found that 28% of Americans have no confidence they will have enough money to retire comfortably—the highest level in the study's 23-year history.
  • U.S. Probes Microsoft, Partners Over Bribery Claims. Federal regulators are investigating Microsoft Corp.'s relationship with business partners that allegedly bribed foreign government officials in return for software contracts, according to people familiar with the matter. Lawyers from the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are examining kickback allegations made by a former Microsoft representative in China, as well as the company's relationship with certain resellers and consultants in Romania and Italy, these people said.
MarketWatch: 
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
CNN:
  • Syrian regime, rebels blame each other for chemical attacks. The specter of chemical weapons attacks in the Syrian civil war emerged Tuesday, with the government and rebels each blaming the other for using such munitions. The embattled government of President Bashar al-Assad accused rebels of a deadly chemical weapons missile attack. At least 25 people died and dozens more were injured Tuesday in the town of Khan al-Asal in Aleppo province, Syrian state media said, quoting government figures. Rebels rebuffed the claims and blamed the regime.
Reuters:
  • PIMCO cuts euro exposure as investors decry Cyprus bailout plan. A demand that Cyprus seize money from depositors to help rescue the island's banks is a wake-up call for those who believed the euro zone crisis was solved, institutional investors and hedge funds said. One of the world's biggest money managers, PIMCO, has already reduced its euro currency allocations in response to the planned levy unveiled at the weekend, a senior executive told Reuters on Tuesday.
Telegraph: 
  • Cyprus bailout - live. Eurozone governments are "essentially blackmailing" Cyprus, said Anthanasios Orphanides, former governor of the Cypriot central bank, as he warned against the "slow death of the European project"

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.51%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -3.75% 2) Oil Service -3.13% 3) Steel -2.65%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CLF, LRE, CMLP, HEP, LRE, HPT, WAC, DSW, CAH, LULU, PIKE, CHL, GRFS, EA, TRLA, MCK, FF, ROSE, CBF, NSM, FDS, RNF, RIO, OCN, TCK, CLF, ASPS, SHOO, PCRX, SDT and JNPR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CAH 2) DKS 3) HOV 4) OXY 5) SMH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RIG 2) C 3) JNPR 4) DE 5) CAH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.04%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.17% 2) Homebuilders +.65% 3) Drugs +.63%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ABC, NPSP, WAG and RLGY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EA 2) WAG 3) RSX 4) DG 5) MON
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TOL 2) HAIN 3) LSCC 4) MINI 5) RFIL
Charts: