Thursday, March 21, 2013

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.91%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Software -2.63% 2) Networking -1.90% 3) Homebuilders -1.84%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SCHL, CBD, CHKR, ORCL, MXF, TUMI, JBL, ARG, RJF, MOV, GES, FDX, TLYS, SNY, TRLG, TOT, IHS, WAC, GLP, BKW, CHTR, TOT, EXLP, CATO, SAP, LEN and BAM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HUM 2) XHB 3) JDSU 4) FDX 5) NKE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BKW 2) JNPR 3) NAV 4) EBAY 5) SCHL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.53%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.79% 2) Coal +.25% 3) Steel +.18%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CALL, AWAY, ISIS and SN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ORCL 2) CTXS 3) CIM 4) ISIS 5) JBL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) COV 2) WFT 3) HPQ 4) GIS 5) ARG
Charts:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Osborne Pledges Five More Years of U.K. Austerity. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne held firm to his austerity plan as the economy continues to stagnate, saying government spending cuts will carry on for three years after the 2015 election. As official growth forecasts were further downgraded, Osborne sought in his budget speech to Parliament yesterday to regain voters’ support. He announced tax cuts for low earners and companies and measures to boost home ownership, all financed by a squeeze on departmental budgets and a renewed crackdown on tax avoiders. 
  • Italy President Meeting Draws Grillo to Government Talks. Beppe Grillo, the ex-comic and anti-austerity crusader, is being drawn into talks over the formation of an Italian government after three weeks in which the country’s political vacuum gave his influence room to grow. Leaders of Grillo’s Five Star Movement will meet President Giorgio Napolitano today as the head of state seeks to build consensus in a divided parliament. The grizzled entertainer, who punctuated campaign speeches with jokes and profanity, has kept his distance from rivals even as they adjust their programs to win his backing. Grillo will be asked once more to submit to an alliance during his meeting with Napolitano at the presidential palace in Rome. “He will behave properly, but he will say no,” said Giovanni Orsina, a history professor at Luiss Guido Carli University.
  • EU to Curb Banker Bonuses After Clinching Deal on Basel III Law. The European Union is to press ahead with planned banker bonus curbs that were opposed by the U.K. after Britain failed to water down a tentative agreement from last month. European Parliament lawmakers and Ireland, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, kept bonus restrictions unchanged, as they sealed a deal yesterday overhauling bank capital and liquidity rules for the 27-nation EU.
  • Japan Posts Longest Run of Trade Deficits in Three Decades. Japan posted its longest run of trade deficits in three decades as exports fell in February, underscoring challenges for Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in reviving the world’s third-biggest economy. Shipments dropped 2.9 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.7 percent decrease. Imports rose 11.9 percent, leaving a trade shortfall of 777.5 billion yen ($8.1 billion). Exports to China fell 15.8 percent as Asia’s largest economy celebrated the week-long Lunar New Year holiday in February, while shipments to Asia dropped 5.2 percent. Exports to the U.S. rose 5.7 percent, while those to the European Union fell 9.6 percent
  • FedEx(FDX) Pares Asia Flights Amid Shift to Cheaper Deliveries. FedEx Corp. plans to cut cargo flights to Asia as customers accelerate their shift to the company’s slower, less expensive international services. The shipping company is making the changes after missing analysts’ estimates yesterday on both fiscal third-quarter profit and its full-year forecast. An economic bellwether that moves goods as varied as medical supplies and auto parts, FedEx had already begun a $1.7 billion restructuring to make up for a move away from its fastest, most expensive deliveries. “The trade lane between Asia and the U.S., in particular, remains weak in terms of air freight,” said Logan Purk, a St. Louis-based analyst at Edward Jones & Co. who has a buy rating on the shares. “With FedEx leveraged more to a discretionary air-freight model, they suffer.” The company, which operates a shipping hub at Guangzhou, China, and plans to open one in Osaka, Japan, is also studying grounding some planes
  • Gillard Faces Leadership-Contest Call as Australia’s Labor Lags. Senior Labor Party lawmakerSimon Crean called on Australian Prime MinisterJulia Gillard to hold a leadership ballot, saying the government can’t win elections due in six months from its current position in opinion polls. Crean said he doesn’t expect Gillard to agree and urged Labor lawmakers in that instance to petition the prime minister for a leadership ballot. Crean told reporters in Canberra he would stand for the position of deputy and urged former leader Kevin Rudd to put his name forward for the leadership. 
  • Tencent Falls as Analysts Cut Share Price Forecasts. Tencent Holdings Ltd (700), China’s largest Internet company, fell the most in 17 months in Hong Kong trading after at least seven analysts cut share price forecasts on the stock. The shares fell as much as 8.7 percent to HK$240, the most since October 2011, before trading at HK$255.40 as of 9:47 a.m. in Hong Kong.
  • Bernanke Saying He’s Dispensable Suggests Tenure Ending. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s “spoken to the president a bit” about his future and that he feels no personal responsibility to stay at the helm until the Fed winds down its unprecedented policies to stimulate the economy. “I don’t think that I’m the only person in the world who can manage the exit,” Bernanke said when asked at a news conference in Washington if he’s discussed his plans with President Barack Obama. His term expires at the end of January. 
  • Aluminum May Extend Losses on Bear Flag: Technical Analysis. Aluminum prices, down 6.5 percent this year, probably will extend the slump to the lowest since October on the London Metal Exchange, according to technical analysis by Matt McKinney at Zaner Group LLC. After touching a low of $1,934.85 a metric ton on March 11, prices jumped two days later to $1,996.25, creating a so-called bear flag pattern that signals a drop by the end of this month to $1,887, the lowest since Oct. 29, McKinney said.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Lenders Reject New Plans to Assist Cyprus. Tapping Pensions for Bailout Spurned; Moscow Cool to Gas-for-Cash Proposal. Cyprus on Wednesday was left with narrowing options to rescue its outsize financial-services sector from collapse—something that could end its membership in the euro zone—after international lenders rejected an alternative government plan to secure a multibillion-euro bailout and Russian officials remained cool to a Cypriot gas-for-cash deal.
  • Stagnant Japan Rolls Dice on New Era of Easy Money. Japan's new central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins work Thursday on a feat no one before has managed: reversing nearly two decades of falling prices to lift wages and profits in the world's third largest economy.
  • U.S. to Shift Drone Command. Mounting Criticism Sparks Push to Move Lethal Program to Military From CIA. The White House is working to shift control of the Central Intelligence Agency's lethal drone program to the military, U.S. officials say, a move that redefines the widely contested campaign that targets suspected terrorists. The new directive is intended to shift the covert drone program to one that is subject to international laws of war and undertaken with the consent of host governments. The draft document reflects a growing consensus within the Obama administration that the long-term future of the program lies with the military, where U.S. officials say it will be on firmer legal footing and be more transparent. The drone program has drawn fire from both Democrats and Republicans who say it is secretive and unpredictable.
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com:
  • Cyprus mulls plan to stem capital flight. Doubt over Cyprus’ financial future showed no sign of lifting Thursday, with officials reportedly set to introduce new legislation to try to prevent capital exiting the country, amid negotiations to shore up the country’s finances.
CNBC: 
  • North Korea Military Threatens US Bases as 'Within Target'. North Korea's supreme military command said on Thursday its "precision attack" weapons have U.S. navy bases in Guam and Okinawa in their sights and will attack them if it is provoked. "The United States is advised not to forget that our precision target tools have within their range the Anderson Air Force base on Guam where the B-52 takes off, as well as the Japanese mainland where nuclear powered submarines are deployed and the navy bases on Okinawa," the North Korean command spokesman was quoted by KCNA news agency. North Korea earlier made a threat to stage a nuclear attack on the United States, something that is well outside of its current military capacity, although the U.S. Pacific bases are in range of its medium range missiles. 
  • South Korea: Chinese Address Source of Cyberattack. A Chinese Internet address was the source of a cyberattack on one of the South Korean companies hit in a massive computer shutdown that affected five other banks or media companies, initial findings indicated Thursday.
  • Guess(GES) profit falls, issues weak forecast. Guess Inc.'s fiscal fourth-quarter dropped 24 percent as the company discounted more clothing due to economic pressures on European shoppers and fewer customers in North America. It issued a disappointing forecast and shares fell in after-hours trading.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
  • Why You Should Ignore The Strong China Flash PMI Report. Furthermore, he points to non-recurring items and the fact that the report conflicts with the recent slew of disappointing data out of the world's second largest economy. "That said, there are significant distortions on PMI readings around the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday, so investors should view those volatilities in PMI with caution. Other leading indicators such as daily power output suggest that March manufacturing activities remain relatively weak and street economists will likely cut their 1Q13 GDP growth forecasts."
Reuters:
  • Exclusive: German union chief to VW Tennessee workers - Join UAW. The United Auto Workers has won the backing of the head of an influential German union in its effort to represent the hourly workers at Volkswagen AG's Chattanooga, Tennessee, assembly plant. "In Chattanooga, you need union representation" to negotiate working conditions, IG Metall President Berthold Huber said in a letter distributed in early March to the plant's 2,350 hourly employees. A copy of the letter was obtained by Reuters. "We strongly recommend that the eligible employees at Volkswagen, Chattanooga, decide that the UAW should represent them," he added.
  • Cyprus scrambles to avert meltdown, EU threatens cutoff. Cyprus considered nationalizing pension funds and ordered banks to stay shut till next week to avert financial chaos after it rejected the terms of a European Union bailout and turned to Russia for aid. Crisis talks among the political leadership in Nicosia are set to resume on Thursday after late-night meetings to discuss a "Plan B" broke up on Wednesday without result. EU officials voiced frustration but little sympathy for an ambitious but now bust banking system that extended itself well beyond the island; Russia, whose citizens have billions to lose in those Cypriot banks, called the EU a "bull in a china shop".
  • Moody's downgrades Brazil's BNDES, Caixa on eroding capital. Moody's Investors Service lowered on Wednesday the long-term issuer ratings of Brazilian state banks BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal, citing their eroding capital position after years of rapid credit expansion. Analysts led by Alexandre Albuquerque cut ratings on state development bank BNDES and on Caixa, the country's largest mortgage lender, to "Baa2" from "A3," according to a statement. Both rankings, which are within investment-grade ratings, bear a positive outlook - meaning that an upgrade would be likely to happen within 12 to 18 months. 
  • Oracle(ORCL) blames sales force for Q3 miss, stock drops. Oracle Corp blamed its rapidly expanding salesforce for a severe miss in third-quarter software sales and warned that its ailing hardware business will lose more ground this quarter, driving its shares 8 percent lower on Wednesday. 
  • Brazil flat steel inventory rises, sales fall in February. Steel distribution companies in Brazil sold 317,900 tonnes of flat products in February, a drop of 13.8 percent from the prior month, industry group Sindisider said in a report on Wednesday. February sales were 7.5 percent below the amount sold a year earlier. Distributors bought 8.7 percent less steel in February from the previous month. Inventory rose 2.4 percent from September to the equivalent of 3.1 months of sales, or 970,400 tonnes, Sindisider said.

Telegraph:
Yomiuri:
  • Japan plans to request the EU to keep arms embargo on China, citing a Japanese government official.
VOA:
  • Japan and the U.S. will draft a plan to counter Chinese military action to seize disputed island in East China Sea, citing a U.S. defense official. Shigeru Iwasaki, Chief of Joint Staff of Japanese Self Defense Forces, and Samuel Locklear, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, will meet in Hawaii this week.
Want China Times: 
Evening Recommendations 
Oppenheimer:
  • Rated (GY) Outperform, target $20.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 82.5  unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MOV)/.26
  • (KBH)/-.22
  • (WOR)/.49
  • (IHS)/.85
  • (SCHL)/-.39  
  • (CAG)/.56
  • (ROST)/1.07
  • (NKE)/.67
  • (MU)/-.20  
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 340K versus 332K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3050K versus 3024K prior.
8:58 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US PMI for March is estimated to rise to 54.8 versus 54.3 in February.
9:00 am EST
  • The House Price Index forJanuary is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.6% gain in December.
10:00 am EST
  • The Philly Fed for March is estimated to rise to -3.0 versus -12.5 in February.
  • Existing Home Sales for February are estimated to rise to 5.0M versus 4.92M in January.
  • Leading Indicators for February are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for March, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JP Morgan Insurance Conference, (AZN) investor day and the (PANW) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Homebuilding/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 12.36 -14.11%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -37.68%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -19.59%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -35.02%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.09 +8.8% (new series)
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 166.51 +2.69%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 100.90 -.10%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 244.35 -.73%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -1.0 bp
  • TED Spread 21.75 +.75 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +2.0 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 170.0 +4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $134.10/Metric Tonne -.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.20 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +169 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail, tech, medical and biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • ECB Said Likely to Delay Vote on Emergency Cyprus Bank Lending. The European Central Bank is likely to delay a decision on whether to continue to supply Cypriot banks with emergency funds as it awaits clarity on the nation’s bailout, two people familiar with the deliberations said. The ECB assumes that a bank holiday in Cyprus will be extended to the end of the week, and there is a public holiday on the Mediterranean island on March 25, the people said on condition of anonymity. That means policy makers don’t need to vote on whether to extend or halt Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Cypriot banks at their mid-month meeting in Frankfurt, which starts today and ends tomorrow, the people said. The delay gives the Cypriot government and euro-area finance ministers five more days to forge a deal to prevent the implosion of the island’s banking sector.
  • Europe Plays I-Didn’t-Do-It Blame Game on Cyprus Bank Tax. To listen to the German and French governments, the European Central Bank and European Commission, no one was responsible for the Cypriot deposit tax that was unanimously endorsed in the early hours of March 16 and fell apart yesterday. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble opened the blame game on Sunday, telling ARD television that the commission, ECB and Cypriot government engineered the swoop on ordinary bank accounts and “now they have to explain it to the Cypriot people.” By then, the Cypriot people were lining up at cash machines and painting “No” on the palms of their hands to protest the levy that, even with a tax-free allowance built in for the smallest savers, didn’t win a single “Yes” vote in the Cypriot parliament. “The Cyprus fiasco has the hallmark of a classic whodunit,” Sony Kapoor, head of the Re-Define think tank, said in an e-mailed note. “Someone somewhere took a decision that now no one nowhere appears to have made.
  • Osborne Says 2013 U.K. Growth Forecast Cut in Half. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the forecast for U.K. economic growth this year was cut by half as he lowered corporation tax and set out an updated central-bank remit to aid Britain’s recovery. Gross domestic product will increase 0.6 percent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 1.2 percent, Osborne told Parliament in London as he delivered his annual budget statement today, citing the Office for Budget Responsibility’s predictions. The economy will grow 1.8 percent next year, compared with a previous estimate of 2 percent, and it will expand 2.3 percent in 2015, he added. “It is taking longer than anyone hoped, but we must hold to the right track,” Osborne told lawmakers. “The problems in Cyprus this week are further evidence that the crisis is not over, and the situation remains very worrying,” he said, referring to the uncertainty over a planned European Union rescue package for the Mediterranean island.
  • Hollande Woes Deepen With Resignation Before Confidence Vote. French President Francois Hollande’s government faces its first confidence vote over its handling of the economy as Budget Minister Jerome Cahuzac’s resigned amid an investigation into his finances. Cahuzac, 60, is the first minister to exit since Hollande won power last May and is stepping down after a probe into whether he had an undeclared Swiss bank account. Today’s confidence vote, called by the opposition and unlikely to prevail because of Hollande’s Socialist Party’s majority in the National Assembly, will follow a speech by Prime Minister Jean- Marc Ayrault. “The French economy is paralyzed,” Jean-Francois Cope, head of the opposition Union for a Popular Movement, said today on I-tele television. “Our confidence motion is intended as a wake-up call for the government.” 
  • European Stocks Advance as Leaders Weigh Cyprus Fate. European stocks climbed, snapping a three-day loss for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as the region’s policy makers weighed options for keeping Cyprus in the euro area. Deutsche Bank AG and BNP Paribas SA paced a rebound in banks, both rising at least 1 percent. U.K. homebuilders rallied as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announced a new program to support British housing. Rheinmetall AG lost 6.9 percent after forecasting lower earnings in 2013. The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.3 percent to 296.5 at the close of trading, after falling 1 percent in the past three days.
  • Fed Officials Trim Forecasts for 2013, 2014 Jobless Rate. Federal Reserve officials forecast the nation’s unemployment rate will hit the central bank’s threshold for raising interest rates sometime in 2015, while projecting faster improvement in the labor market this year. U.S. central bankers estimate the jobless rate will average 6.7 percent to 7 percent in the final quarter of 2014 and 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2015, according to their central tendency estimates. Similarly, 13 of the 19 Federal Open Market Committee participants estimated that the first increase in the federal funds rate from its current range of zero to 0.25 percent will occur in 2015, the same as at the December meeting. Four estimated the first tightening in 2014, up from 3 in December. Eleven estimated that the benchmark lending rate will be 1 percent or lower by the end of 2015, compared with 12 in December.
  • Caterpillar(CAT) Machine Retail Sales Drop Accelerates, Led by Asia. Caterpillar Inc., the biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, said global retail machine sales fell 13 percent in the three months through February. Asia Pacific sales declined 26 percent from the same period a year earlier, the Peoria, Illinois-based company said today in a filing. North American sales were 12 percent lower and Europe, Africa and the Middle East slid 9 percent. Latin America was up 3 percent. Caterpillar last month said global retail machine sales fell 4 percent in the three months through January. 
  • Synthetic CDOs Making Comeback as Yields Juiced. Derivatives that pool credit- default swaps to make magnified bets on corporate debt, popularized in the last credit bubble, are making a comeback as investors search farther afield for alternatives to bonds at record-low yields. Citigroup Inc. is among banks that have sold as much as $1 billion of synthetic collateralized debt obligations this year, following $2 billion in all of 2012, according to estimates from the New York-based lender. Trading in so-called tranches of indexes that use a similar strategy to juice yields rose 61 percent in the past month. Synthetic credit, which amplified the financial crisis five years ago, is enticing investors after corporate-bond yields dropped to less than half the 20-year average.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Creditors Set to Reject Cyprus's Plan B. International creditors were set to reject an alternative bailout plan Cyprus cobbled together a day after the government's divisive tax on bank deposits died a quick death, two officials with knowledge of the situation said on Wednesday, leaving the island nation with narrowing options to rescue its outsize financial-services sector from collapse.
MarketWatch:
CNBC: 
  • US Mortgage Applications Fell Again Last Week as Rates Rose: MBA. Applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled for a second week in a row last week as interest rates continued to climb to seven-month highs, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 7.1 percent in the week ended March 15. The index of refinancing applications dropped 8 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, slipped 3.9 percent.
  • Caution: China Stocks May See Double-Digit Correction. After a positive start to the year, Chinese equities have fast fallen out of favor with investors, down more than 6 percent in the past month on worries over a bubble building in the property market and on the overall growth outlook. According to technical analyst Ray Barros of Ray Barros Trading Group, the worst is not over for the market, he expects a further correction of up to 15 percent for the benchmark Shanghai Composite in the next two months
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
  • Here's Where The Ugly Consequences Of Easy Monetary Policy Will First Appear. Some have argued that this mis-pricing is actually a bubble in the junk bond market. "More to the point, these are parts of the financial system where developed market central banks would likely be unwilling or unable to ‘do whatever it takes’ to prevent a serious setback. The question would then be whether setback and stress in these sectors could be contained in a world of high leverage." Keep an eye on the junk bond market.
Project Syndicate:
  • China's Hidden Debt Risk. Now China is experiencing a fourth instance of elevated debt risk, this time characterized by high levels of accumulated local-government and corporate debt. To be sure, China’s national balance sheet, which boasts positive net assets, has garnered significant attention in recent years. But, in order to assess China’s financial risk accurately, policymakers and economists must consider the risks that lie in the country’s asset structure – and the liabilities that are not included on its balance sheet.
NY Daily News: 
benzinga:
  • Agriculture Equipment Likely to Lose Demand in 2014, According To Wells Fargo Analyst.
    Andrew Casey, an analyst at Wells Fargo, is growing more and more bearish on agriculture equipment next year, based on a likely decrease in cash flow among farmers. Casey went on to say that he believes commodity prices will come down in price soon too, specifically citing that corn may be closer to $4.25/bu, rather the current $7/bu that it is now. Because of the expected lower demand, Deere(DE) has been slashed to underperform from market perform with a price target of $72-75 from $90-93. AGCO Corp.(AGCO) was also cut to underperform from market perform and had its price target lowered to $40-43 from $51-54.
Reuters:
  • FedEx(FDX) cuts forecast as air freight weakness hits profit. FedEx Corp cut its full-year forecast after a worse-than-expected quarterly profit as customers shift from air express to slower but cheaper modes of international shipping. Shares of the No. 2 U.S. package-delivery company fell 5 percent in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. FedEx's express unit, its biggest source of revenue, has also been hit by overcapacity in the industry that has squeezed margins. Operating income in the express unit fell 66 percent. FedEx said the express unit underperformed due to weakness in Asia and other international markets, where margin pressures arising from excess capacity more than offset increased volumes. "We have a yield issue that exaggerated itself this quarter over last quarter," Dave Bronczek, CEO of FedEx Express, said on a conference call with analysts. FedEx plans to cut express capacity to and from Asia from April 1 and is looking at reducing its fleet by retiring more of its older, less-efficient aircraft.
  • Analysis: ECB prepared to let Cyprus go, protect others. The European Central Bank is prepared to cut off funding to Cyprus and let the Mediterranean island succumb to financial meltdown if it has to, confident it has unlimited firepower to protect the rest of the euro zone.
  • Europe transaction tax raises collateral crunch fears. A financial transaction tax (FTT) proposed by the European Commission could unleash a collateral crunch as much of the US$639trn over-the-counter derivatives market shifts to central clearing. Plans to slap a 0.1% levy on stock and bond transactions and 0.01% on derivatives could raise as much as EUR35bn each year. But the unintended consequences could pose a problem for implementation of the swaps clearing mandate that forms the backbone of the European Markets and Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR).
Telegraph: 
  • Bank of England warns QE could hit sterling - minutes. Bank of England policymakers have warned that more quantitative easing could lead to “an unwarranted depreciation of sterling” if markets interpreted the move as evidence that the central bank was abandoning its commitment to low inflation.
Die Zeit:
  • Asmussen Says ECB Will Only Fund Solvent Banks. European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen comments in interview. Says ECB can "only provide emergency liquidity to solvent banks". Says solvency of Cypriot banks "can't be considered a given unless an aid package, which ensures a fast recapitalization of the banking sector, is agreed soon". Says it's important that Cyprus's contribution is sufficient to guarantee debt sustainability.
Cadena Ser:
  • Spain to Deny Aid to Regions Breaching Deficit Limit. Budget Ministry Montoro will deny subsidies for training medical professionals to work on organ transplants, citing a written order from the ministry
Luxembourg RTL:
  • Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, is "tainted" by debates over rescue plans in the Netherlands, Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said in an interviwew.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.39%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Agriculture -.34% 2) HMOs -.31% 3) Road & Rail -.22%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • MXWL, FDX, AGCO, CNW, DE, XEC, ANW, ECT, CHKR, ATOS, MXF, TEI, CTAS, RNF, IEP, FNV, PER, CNW, FDS, CYNO, ADUS, PTEN, CIG, ATU, CAT, SHG, CSL and NCT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FDX 2) CIE 3) DISH 4) CY 5) ORCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DE 2) AGCO 3) JPM 4) GM 5) DVN
Charts: