Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.64%

Sector Outperformers:

• Biotech +3.69% 2) Airlines +2.26% 3) Disk Drives +1.82%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ONXX, CIE, CVC, ARIA, CSIQ, P, PCYC, MDVN, TSLA, CLDX and ALXN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NBL 2) GNC 3) OC 4) ABBV 5) IBB
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) REGN 2) FFIV 3) LMT 4) ALNY 5) MRK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:     

• Xi Says GDP Not Officials’ Sole Focus in Signal on Growth. China’s President Xi Jinping said officials shouldn’t be judged solely on their record in boosting gross domestic product, the latest signal that policy makers are prepared to tolerate slower economic expansion. The Communist Party should instead place more importance on achievements in improving people’s livelihood, social development and environmental quality when evaluating the performance of officials, the Xinhua News Agency reported June 29, citing Xi at a meeting on personnel management on the eve of the 92nd anniversary of the party’s founding.

• Chinese Manufacturing Gauges Fall as Slowdown Persists: Economy. Two gauges of China’s manufacturing fell in June, underscoring a sustained slowdown in the nation’s economy as policy makers seek to rein in financial speculation and real-estate prices. An official Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) dropped to 50.1 from 50.8, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. A private PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 48.2, the weakest since September. Readings above 50 signal expansion. 

• China’s June Home Prices Jump on Increasing Sales, SouFun Says. China’s new home prices jumped in June by the most since they reversed declines in December, defying the government’s tightened property curbs as increased sales supported developers’ efforts to avoid price cuts. Prices surged 7.4 percent last month from a year earlier to 10,258 yuan ($1,671) per-square-meter (10.76 square feet), SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the country’s biggest real estate website owner, said in a statement today after a survey of 100 cities. Last month’s increase was the biggest since December, when prices climbed 0.03 percent, reversing a 0.46 percent decline in November.

• China Orders Armed Patrols in Xinjiang After Violence Killed 35. China ordered paramilitary troops to patrol around the clock in the western Xinjiang province after unrest killed at least 35 people in one of the region’s worst outbreaks of violence in four years. The stepped-up security, announced on the Ministry of Public Security’s website yesterday, comes before the fourth anniversary of clashes between Uighurs and Han Chinese in the regional capital Urumqi on July 5, 2009 that killed 200 people. 

• China Stocks Fall After Manufacturing Data Show Slower Expansion. China’s stocks fell, led by material and financial companies, after an official gauge of manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in four months in June. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.1, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. That was down from May’s 50.8 reading and matched the median forecast of 33 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 0.8 percent to 1,963.04 at 9:33 a.m. local time, extending last week’s 4.5 percent slump, the biggest loss since the five days ended Feb. 22.

• Pawnbrokers Thrive as Poorest Aussies Bear Brunt of Slowdown. On a sidewalk in Sydney’s Bankstown neighborhood, where unemployment is more than double Australia’s average, Dave Cox pulls the starter cord of an edge trimmer to prove it works as he tries to sell it to pawnbroker Cash Converters International Ltd. (CCV) “The economy is pretty crap right now,” 38-year-old truck driver Cox, who’s between jobs, said after he offloaded the snipper for A$30 ($28). In the past month, he sold an iPhone and got a loan at Cash Converters, whose sales last year grew faster than any other Australian retailer that didn’t make a major acquisition. “It just feels bad out there.”

• Asian Stocks Outside Japan Decline on China Manufacturing. Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with a regional index heading for its first decline in four days, after an official gauge of manufacturing activity in China expanded at the slowest pace in four months. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender, fell 1.8 percent. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s No. 1 carmaker, gained 0.5 percent as the yen weakened against the dollar. Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co. (4530) surged 5.8 percent in Tokyo after its Noven unit won U.S. approval for its drug to ease hot flushes associated with menopause. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index fell 0.4 percent to 430.67 as of 12:06 p.m. in Hong Kong, with eight of the 10 industry groups on the measure falling.

• Europe Stocks Addicted to Emerging Markets Stretching Valuations. For the first time ever, European companies are relying on emerging markets for a third of all revenue, stretching equity valuations as Chinese growth slows and protests turn violent from Turkey to Brazil. 

• Draghi’s One Size Fits All Rescue Fuels Northermost Debt. The European Central Bank’s attempt to resuscitate the 17-member euro economy with record-low interest rates is fueling a debt boom in its most creditworthy country and exposing a growing disconnect in monetary policy. In Helsinki, about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) northeast of the Frankfurt offices of ECB President Mario Draghi, household debt has surged to a record as Finns take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in the euro area to buy property. Citizens of crisis-stricken countries from Greece to Portugal are either unable to get loans or forced to pay much higher rates. 

• Rebar Declines as Pace of Manufacturing Growth in China Slows. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell as two gauges of China’s manufacturing fell in June, underscoring a slowdown in the nation’s economy. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined as much as 1 percent to 3,501 yuan ($571) a metric ton before trading at 3,518 at 10:28 a.m. local time. Futures fell 6.8 percent last quarter, the most since the three months ended in September. 

• Rubber Falls First Day in Three After China Manufacturing Slows. Rubber futures in Tokyo declined for the first time in three days after manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in four months in China, the largest consumer of the commodity used in tires. The contract for delivery in December slipped as much as 1 percent to 233.9 yen a kilogram ($2,356 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and was at 234.8 yen at 12:13 p.m. local time. Futures lost 14 percent last quarter, the biggest decline in a year.

• U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage. U.S. regulators are showing encouraging signs of coming to a crucial understanding: If they want the financial system to be more resilient and beneficial for the economy, they’ll have to make sure the largest banks’ shareholders have more skin in the game. This week, Federal Reserve officials are expected to vote on new rules for bank capital -- shareholders’ equity and other forms of financing that, as opposed to debt, can absorb losses and prevent insolvency in times of trouble. According to Bloomberg News, U.S. authorities have been considering increasing the requirement to $6 in capital for every $100 in assets, a “leverage ratio” of 6 percent. That’s double the international minimum set by global regulators in Basel, Switzerland. The current U.S. minimum is 4 percent. A higher leverage ratio would be a welcome step toward strengthening the U.S. banking system. 

• Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bets as Goldman Lowers Outlook: Commodities. Hedge funds cut wagers on a gold rally to a five-year low as a record quarterly drop drove prices below $1,200 an ounce for the first time since 2010 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast more declines. Money managers reduced their net-long position by 20 percent to 31,197 futures and options by June 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the lowest since June 2007. Holdings of short contracts climbed 5 percent to 77,027, the second-highest on record. Net-bullish wagers across 18 commodities tumbled 9 percent, the most in 12 weeks.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Immigration Bill Faces Uphill Climb in House. For all the battles in Congress over immigration, the issue isn't likely to be a decisive one in many individual campaigns for House seats in 2014, strategists for both parties say. That is likely to affect the debate in the House as it weighs the sweeping immigration bill passed by the Senate last week.

• Health-Insurance Costs Set for a Jolt. For the Healthy, Rates Could Soar Under New Law; Sicker Consumers to See Relief. Healthy consumers could see insurance rates double or even triple when they look for individual coverage under the federal health law later this year, while the premiums paid by sicker people are set to become more affordable, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of coverage to be sold on the law's new exchanges.

Fox News:

• 18 firefighters confirmed dead fighting Arizona blaze. Local fire officials have confirmed that at least 18 firefighters have died while battling the Yarnell Hill Fire in central Arizona. The Prescott Fire Department confirmed to MyFoxPhoenix that the firefighters,all part of a group called the Prescott Granite Mountain Hotshots, had passed away Sunday evening. The Yavapai County Sheriff's Office has notified residents in the Peeples Valley area and in the town of Yarnell to evacuate.

CNBC: 

• Why China's Economy May Be Heading for a Crash. China's central bank sent global markets reeling when it attempted tighten credit and rein in the country's shadow banking system. But the consequences of China's credit binge may just be getting started, and experts say there could be more pain to come for the world's second-largest economy.  

• Onyx Pharma(ONXX) Rejects Buyout Offer From Amgen(AMGN).

Zero Hedge:

• The Golden (Sentiment) Rule: If It Isn’t Off The Chart Now, It Soon Will Be. (graphs)

• Stocks Plunge In Last Minute On Rebal Day, June Is Worst Month Since October 2012. (graphs)

• Collateral Transformation: The Latest, Greatest Financial Weapon Of Mass Destruction.

• The Days Of The Super-Powered Chinese Economy Are Over.

• When Milton Friedman Opened Pandora's Box...

• Global Macro In 12 Simple Charts - Find The Clean Shirt.

• EU Parliament "Shocked" At NSA "Bugging" Diplomatic Offices; Threatens Trade Talks.

• Meanwhile, In Egypt... - Live Feed.

• How The "Taper Tantrum" Cost US Banks $25 Billion In Q2 Net Income.

• Multiple Government Agencies Are Keeping Records Of Your Credit Card Transactions.

• China PMI Drops To Lowest In 9 Months; Schrodinger's Economy Continues. (graph)

• The Drag From Higher Mortgage Rates. (graphs)

Business Insider:

• US Marines Put On Alert To Move Into Egypt Amid Violent Protests.

• Fitch Affirms AAA Rating For US But Elevated Debt Keeps Outlook Negative.

• GLENN GREENWALD: The NSA Can Store 'One Billion Cell Phone Calls Every Single Day'.

• NOT GOOD: Global Canary In The Coal Mine Looks Sick. (graph)

• LIVE: Thousands Of Companies Around The World Are Revealing The Truth About The Economy.

• These Photos Show Just How Massive The Protests In Egypt Have Become.

• FORGET THE FED: Here's The Troubling Trend That's Really Behind Stock Market Volatility. (graph)

• New Developments Threaten To Burst China's Staggering Housing Bubble.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: What do Higher Interest Rates Mean for Stocks.

Telegraph:

• France's triumphant 'Joan of Arc' vows to bring back franc and destroy euro. Marine Le Pen is spoiling for a fight. The leader of France's Front National vows to smash the existing order of Europe and force the break-up of monetary union, if she wins the next election.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.50 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 114.25 +1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.06%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Final Markit US PMI is estimated to rise to 52.4 versus a prior estimate of 52.2.

 10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in April.

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 50.5 versus 49.0 in May.

• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to rise to 50.5 versus 49.5 in May.

Upcoming Splits

• (SNP) 13-for-10

• (OGE) 2-for-1

• (AAON) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI/Inflation reports, Japan 10Y Treasury auction and the (SD) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, more emerging markets unrest, increasing Eurozone/Asian debt angst, Fed "taper" worries, more shorting and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,606.28 +.87%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,606.28 +.87%

• DJIA 14,909.60 +.75%

• NASDAQ 3,403.25 +1.37%

• Russell 2000 977.48 +1.43%

• S&P 500 High Beta 24.82 +1.06%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 419.39 +1.50%

• Russell 1000 Growth 729.59 +.91%

• Russell 1000 Value 820.93 +1.14%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 982.95 +.38%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,179.84 +.61%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 745.21 +.12%

• Transports 6,173.86 +1.04%

• Utilities 485.90 +2.99%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 88.85 +.77%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.64 +2.89%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,095.54 +.33%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 940.65 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 186,348 +1.76%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -70 +916

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 +88.84%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 274,474 -8.12%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,809,371 -3.19%

• Total Put/Call .94 -18.97%

• OEX Put/Call 1.38 +18.97%

• ISE Sentiment 90.0 +15.38%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 +47.82%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.86 -10.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.05 +.75%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.99 -3.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.96 -6.40%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,487.81 +.80%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.594 Trillion +.33%

• AAII % Bulls 30.3 -19.2%

• AAII % Bears 35.2 +17.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 275.62 -.88%

• Crude Oil 96.56 +2.78%

• Reformulated Gasoline 271.56 -1.17%

• Natural Gas 3.56 -6.36%

• Heating Oil 285.88 +.38%

• Gold 1,223.70 -5.70%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 181.25 -.19%

• Copper 305.75 -1.44%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Ton +3.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.50 USD/Ton -1.77%

• Lumber 299.0 +3.25%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,440.47 -2.83%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 5.8% -40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1296 +9.56%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 116.85 +.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -37.10 +6.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 46.0% chance of no change, 54.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31

• US Dollar Index 83.14 +.88%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.50 +.42%

• Yield Curve 213.0 -3 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.49% -4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.436 Trillion +.26%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.50 -6.95%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.0 -7.82%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 95.0 unch.
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 248.74 +1.09%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.0 -.58%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 406.0 -5 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99% +5 basis points

• TED Spread 24.25 +1 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 -4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 +2.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.14 -6.64%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 166.84 -7.54%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 320.02 -15.12%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 135.0 +15 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.494 Trillion -.59%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,039.80 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 345,800 -2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.46% +53 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 629.20 -3.04%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -28.3 +1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.51/gallon -.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,171 +14.02%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,013.26 -.38%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.11%

• Rail Freight Carloads 252,807 -.57%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +1.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +5.1%

• Oil Tankers +4.5%

• REITs +3.9%

• Biotech +3.1%

• Utilities +3.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Agriculture -1.1% 

• Computer Services -1.3%

• Gold & Silver -1.4%

• Steel -2.4%

• Coal -8.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• VHS, KEYN, ISIS, HOMB, INSY, HWAY, MEI, CYTK, SSNI, REV, GMED, BBCN, WMK, COHU, WWWW, WAGE, SIVB, RXN, UMBF, KMR, PRGS, HTGC, MBFI, IGTE, CAMP, UCBI, NWBI, FHN, STBA, FMER and IRBT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• UFPI, ACRE, BCC, ORCL, AHT, NCI, RGLD, HAWK, FCFS, AGN, PMC, APOL, TREX, BKS, MG and AVD

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Weakness

Today's Market Take:

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.63 -1.36%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.66 +.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.96 +.74%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.76 -2.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +47.62%

• Total Put/Call .92 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -5.82% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.03 +.22%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 166.84 +2.17%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 95.0 unch.

• Emerging Market CDS Index 319.50 +.81%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 +.25 bp

• TED Spread 24.25 +1.5 bps

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.50 +1.25 bps

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -2 bps

• Yield Curve 212.0 +1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.50/Metric Tonne +1.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -37.10 -.8 point 

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99 +1 bp

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +218 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long