Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders -1.73% 2) Gold & Silver -.47% 3) Oil Service -.30%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- ALXN, CHT, AMT, MBFI, INGR, BPT, ALNY, WBMD, FET, XONE, CAP, CROX, IBKR, MR and MELI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) MMM 2) SKS 3) AKS 4) VZ 5) UTX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DIS 2) CY 3) QLGC 4) UPS 5) HOG
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- Alt Energy +2.40% 2) Steel +1.97% 3) Gaming +1.65%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- TAYC, LEAP, IQNT, FLY, POWI, NTLS, AMCC, XPO, TDS, TSRX, JKS, ADVS and WNC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) DECK 2) LEAP 3) MSI 4) ESRX 5) NTAP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) NATP 2) TIF 3) DECK 4) ARUN 5) POWI
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China Protest Forcing Nuclear Retreat Shows People Power. Protests
in a southern Chinese city
last week that forced local authorities to abandon plans for a
uranium-processing facility highlight the growing willingness of
ordinary people to challenge the state on environmental issues. The
proposed Longwan Industrial Park project won’t be
approved “in order to fully respect the opinion of the masses,” the
government of Heshan, Guangdong province, said in a statement on its website on July 13. A “social-stability risk assessment” of the proposal that was released for public
awareness generated “much opposition,” it said.
- China Wealth Eluding Foreigners as Equities Earn 1% for 20 Years. China’s 20-year economic boom has
boosted the wealth of its 1.3 billion citizens at the fastest
pace worldwide and spawned some of the biggest companies in
history. Foreigners earned less than 1 percent a year investing in
Chinese stocks, a sixth of what they would have made owning U.S.
Treasury bills. The MSCI China Index has gained about 14 percent,
including dividends, since Tsingtao Brewery Co. (168) became the first
mainland company to sell H shares to international investors in Hong
Kong in July 1993. That compares with a 452 percent return in the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, 322 percent in the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index and 86 percent from Treasuries. Only the MSCI
Japan Index had a weaker performance among the 10 largest
markets, losing about 1 percent.
- China June Home Sales Rise 24% as Buyers Defy Government Curbs. China’s home sales transaction value
rose 24 percent in June from the previous month, the biggest
monthly gain this year, signaling that the government’s latest property measures are failing to deter buyers. The
value of homes sold climbed to 624.4 billion yuan ($102 billion) last
month from 503 billion yuan in May, based on the difference between the
National Statistics Bureau’s data for the
first half of the year and the first five months. The June value
was almost the same value of the sales in the first two months
of the year combined. Housing sales in the first six months rose
46 percent to 2.82 trillion yuan from a year earlier, according
to the data.
- Asian Stocks Gain After China Growth Data Matches Forecasts.
Asian stocks rose, with a regional equities gauge heading for the
highest close in a month, after a report showed China’s economy grew 7.5
percent in the second
quarter, matching economists’ estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.4 percent to 440.68 as of 11:17 a.m. in Hong Kong as about three
shares gained for every two that fell.
- Merkel Rebuffs Putting-Off-Crisis Accusation as Election Looms. Chancellor
Angela Merkel dismissed
suggestions that her government is waiting to disclose the cost of
resolving the debt crisis until after the German election as fresh
turmoil emerged in some indebted euro states. Merkel, who is seeking a
third term, was asked on ARD television whether Germany would “get the
bill” for crisis resolution only after the election. Spain, Portugal and
probably Greece need credit programs, she said. “We’re not leaving
anybody in the dark on what has to be done, and we’ll keep doing it
along these lines,” Merkel said
yesterday in an annual summer interview with the broadcaster. Even with political turbulence in Spain and Portugal and
risk of further unrest in Greece over planned firings of
government workers, the German election still looms over
decision-making in the euro region.
- Greeks Waiting Tables With 27% Unemployment See Elusive Recovery. For Prime Minister Antonis Samaras,
the tangible signs of Greece’s recovery are the tourists pouring
into Athens from cruise ships and airplanes. Olympia Angeli says
she’s lucky those tourists keep her employed. The 28-year-old is clinging to the security of working as a
waitress even as her wages have fallen by half in three years.
Nor does she know when she can return to her studies in tourism
management: She can’t afford to lose her 500-euro ($652) monthly
take-home salary, needed to support her aging parents. “A lot of people moved back home because of the crisis so
their parents could support them,” she said in the historical neighborhood of Plaka at the foot of the Acropolis. “But I’m an
only child and I never moved out. I support my parents, help pay
the rent, help look after them.”
- Egypt’s Prosecutor Investigates Mursi as Cairo Protests Persist. The Egyptian public prosecutor’s
office started investigating complaints against Muslim
Brotherhood members as protesters maintained their rallies to
oppose the army’s removal of Islamist President Mohamed Mursi. Mursi and seven other Muslim Brotherhood members are
accused of “collaborating with foreign parties in order to harm
national interests,” killing protesters and damaging the
economy, the prosecutor’s office said today in a faxed
statement. The probe will also include Mohammed Badie, the
group’s top official, and Essam el-Erian, vice chairman of the
Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party.
- Hedge Funds Bought Gold in Biggest Rally Since 2011: Commodities.
Hedge funds raised bets on higher gold prices for a second week as
comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke damped
expectations for an imminent tapering of stimulus. Futures rose the most
since 2011. Speculators increased their net-long position by 4.1
percent to 35,691 futures and options, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data for July 9 show. Net holdings expanded even as
speculators increased short bets to a record. Net-bullish wagers across
18 U.S.-traded commodities retreated 3.4
percent as investors became the most bearish ever on corn. They
were more bullish on silver and palladium.
- U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.5908 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey. The average price for regular
gasoline at U.S. pumps rose 0.61 cents in the past three weeks
to $3.5908 a gallon, according to Lundberg Survey Inc. The survey covers the period ended July 12 and is based on
information obtained at about 2,500 filling stations by the
Camarillo, California-based company, President Trilby Lundberg
said in a telephone interview today. The average, which reached
a year-to-date peak of $3.795 in the period ended Feb. 22, is
about 18.05 cents above the year-earlier price of $3.4103 a
gallon.
- Holder Falls Short on Obama Openness Pledge He Enforces. In her
four years as the top U.S. diplomat, Hillary Clinton kept a running
total of countries visited, miles traveled and hours spent in transit on
the State Department website. Still untallied: The bill to taxpayers
for her globe-trotting. Bloomberg News last year asked for the
details of out-of-town trips for the heads of 57 major departments in
fiscal 2011, a test of President Barack Obama’s pledge to run the most
open government in history. As of July 12, about one-fifth of those
surveyed hadn’t responded. The State Department is one of five Cabinet offices that have yet to fully comply with requests under the Freedom of Information Act to disclose the details and expenses of official travel more than a year after they were filed.
Wall Street Journal:
- China Slump Ripples Globally. Slowed Growth Realigns Industries and Economies as Beijing Switches Strategies. As the numbers pile up showing China's sizzling growth cooling down,
industries world-wide—from German paper-cutter makers to Indonesian
palm-oil exporters—are confronting an altered landscape of winners and
losers.
The ones that benefited the most from China's rise are now being hurt.
- Restaurant Shift: Sorry, Just Part-Time. More Restaurants Replace Full-Timers, Concerned About Insurance. Ken Adams has been turning to more part-time workers at his 10 Subway
sandwich shops in Michigan to avoid possibly incurring higher
health-care costs under the new federal insurance law. He added approximately 25 part-time workers in May and June as he
reduced some employees' hours and replaced other workers who left. The
move showed how efforts by some restaurant owners and other businesses
to remake their workforces because of the Affordable Care Act may be
turning the country's labor market into a more part-time workforce.
- New Spitzer Book Shows Corporations in His Sights. Hints How Former Governor Would Act if Elected New York City
Comptroller. A new book by Eliot Spitzer provides the clearest window yet into how, if
elected, the former governor would use the office of city comptroller to fight
for changes to corporate governance. The book, titled "Protecting Capitalism Case By Case," suggests that Mr.
Spitzer would use the city's $140 billion in pension funds, which the
comptroller runs along with independent trustees, to try to force changes at
companies on issues ranging from executive pay and the makeup of corporate
boards to bank lending practices.
- Government Action Stokes Fears of New U.K. Housing Market Bubble. Average Price of U.K. Property at an All-Time High But Government Still Wants to Boost Demand. The average asking price for residential property in the U.K. rose to a
fresh all-time high in the early weeks of July, with further price
increases expected in the coming year, fueling concerns that the
government's Help to Buy program could be creating a fresh housing
market bubble.
- Business Confidence Declines in Survey.
Businesses around the world became more gloomy about their prospects
in June, an indication that they are unlikely to increase their
investment spending and hiring, hindering a so-far tepid and patchy
economic recovery. Of 11,000 manufacturers and services providers in 17 countries
surveyed between June 12 and 26, the proportion expecting an increase in
activity over the coming 12 months exceeded the proportion expecting a
decline by 30 percentage points—down from 39 percentage points in
February, data-analysis firm Markit said.
Fox News:
- Justice Department weighing civil rights case after Zimmerman cleared of all charges. The Justice Department said Sunday that it will review the George
Zimmerman case for possible civil rights violations, after a jury
acquitted the Florida neighborhood watch volunteer in the fatal shooting
of 17-year-old Trayvon Martin. As Zimmerman's attorney cautioned that his client's safety is at
risk, the Justice Department responded to appeals from NAACP President
Benjamin Todd Jealous and several lawmakers to keep investigating the
defendant.
CNBC:
- How Dangerous Is Singapore's Soaring Household Debt?
The wealthy Southeast Asian nation Singapore has seen soaring household
debt levels in recent years as low interest rates have led to a
borrowing spree, prompting the government to step in to curb demand. This
island state, which is an important financial hub, has among the
highest level of household borrowing relative to gross domestic product
(GDP) in Asia at 77 percent, rising from around 64 percent in 2007. Home
loans, which account for around three quarters of household debt, have
grown rapidly in recent years together with a booming property market.
Now with bond yields beginning to climb – the 10-year Singapore
government bond yield has risen to 2.5 percent from 1.4 percent in May –
concerns are growing over whether there is a debt bubble in the making.
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- Egyptian Leaders Freeze Assets of Morsi Backers. Egypt’s new military-led government said Sunday that it was freezing the assets of 14 Islamist allies of the ousted president, Mohamed Morsi, stepping up its pressure on his supporters to back down from their continuing public protests demanding his release and reinstatement.
Crain's Chicago Business:
- Insurance exchange scramble.
Hopes that the Obama administration's health care overhaul would usher
in a new era of competition among insurers in Illinois are fizzling.
UnitedHealth Group Inc., the largest insurer in the nation and
second-largest in Illinois, is not going to sell policies on the state's
insurance exchange when it
opens for business on Oct. 1, Crain's has confirmed.
The Blaze:
Reuters:
- Analysis: Sting in dragon's tail for foreign companies in China. China's
vast market for foreign goods and services, once seen by global
companies as a modern-day El Dorado, is becoming a weight around their
necks as its growth slows. The rise of the Chinese economic "dragon"
over the last two decades has transformed international business. But
now the country is in the grip of a slowdown due to a slump in exports
and banking sector excesses, as recent data has shown. That has led
fund managers worldwide to re-assess their investments in companies with
a focus on the world's No.2 economy. "Anything China-sensitive is
performing poorly and the trend will not go away because there is no
sign of growth recovery," said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, investment strategist
at ING Investment Management, which has cut its holdings of
China-exposed stocks.
- Rajoy's risky bet on Spanish economic recovery. Spain's
Mariano Rajoy is making a risky political bet in claiming recovery is
close at hand as a recent economic upturn is fragile and even if it
persists an austerity-weary public may not feel much benefit, analysts
and sources say. For weeks, the government has tried to move away from the gloomy picture it presented in April when
it updated its economic strategy, pointing at encouraging trade, labour
cost and deficit numbers instead. Ministers and officials have hammered
home the message that the worst of the crisis has passed, the
adjustment after a 2008 property crash is close to ending and structural
reforms implemented last year will soon deliver growth and jobs. More
recently prime minister Rajoy and his top aides have talked up the
prospect of a quicker than expected recovery with growth expected in the
third quarter instead of the fourth.
MNI:
- China Economy Already in Financial Crisis, Citing Xia Bin. China economy is already in a financial crisis and the government needs to focus on solving its debt problem, citing Xia Bin, an economist with the State Council's Development Research Center. China needs to find ways to let the bubble burst and write off the existing losses as soon as possible to avoid a bigger crisis, citing Xia. Interest from debt in China is almost 6 trillion yuan a year, he said.
AP:
- Spain opposition demands prime minister resign. Spanish opposition leaders on Sunday urged Prime Minister Mariano
Rajoy to resign after a newspaper published what it said were text
messages Rajoy sent to his party's former treasurer after the treasurer
was accused of making slush fund payoffs to politicians including Rajoy. The ongoing scandal of alleged secret payments has shaken Rajoy's
governing Popular Party and damaged its popularity ratings. The
publication of the text messages by the El Mundo newspaper placed even
more pressure on Rajoy, whose resignation was demanded by leaders of two
key opposition groups.
Financial Times:
- CMBS defaults more than double. Defaults
among financial instruments backed by European commercial mortgage
payments have more than doubled, highlighting the widespread problems
facing the region’s moribund commercial property market. Twenty-nine commercial mortgage-backed securities defaulted
in the first six months of the year as cash-strapped borrowers missed
interest and principal payments, according to figures from Standard
& Poor’s. That compares with 12 defaults during the same period in
2012 on CMBS instruments, which package together bundles of commercial
mortgage revenues for fixed income investors.
- US hedge fund ads worry rivals. Hedge
funds could steal market share from the US mutual fund industry after
the Securities and Exchange Commission scrapped a ban on hedge fund
advertising last week.
- Chinese warships sail past northern Japan. Chinese
warships have passed for the first time through the narrow strait that
divides northern Japan and Russia, Japan’s defence ministry said on
Sunday. The five ships, including a guided-missile destroyer, travelled in
international waters through the La Pérouse Strait early on Sunday
morning, the ministry said.
- BP(BP) says US law firms reaping a ‘bonanza’.
US law firms in the Gulf of Mexico area have won some of the biggest
compensation awards for themselves under BP’s settlement for the
Deepwater Horizon disaster, reaping a “bonanza” caused by a
misinterpretation of the deal, according to the oil company.
Telegraph:
- Ageing Britain 'faces up to five more decades of austerity’. The cost of health care and supporting Britain’s ageing population will mean
the country facing more years of austerity measures, the Government’s
official forecaster will warn this week.
Another £50bn of efficiency measures will be needed over the next 50 years, on
top of the current £153bn, to cope with the increasing costs.
Sunday Times:
- Vodafone Sees Slump in Southern Europe. Co. may report declines
of more than 10% in Spanish, Italian and Greek revenue between April and
June. Vodafone is scheduled to announce 1Q revenue July 19.
Welt:
- Schaeuble Sees Risks of EU Bank Liquidation Plans. German Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warns against "significant risks" of
European Union plans on bank liquidation, quoting Schaeuble letter to EU
Commissioner Michel Barnier it obtained.
Japan Times:
- Don’t rush into tax hike, Abe adviser Hamada says. In what appeared to be a veiled warning, one of Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe’s most influential economic advisers has said he “doesn’t have to
rush” into the first stage of the sales tax hike unless the economy and
the labor market have recovered.
AFR:
- Banks vulnerable to housing collapse. Australia's banks have the
highest exposure to the residential mortgage market than banks in other
major economies, making a US-style banking collapse likely should house
prices plummet.
Shanghai Securities News:
- NDRC Researcher
Says China Faces Pressure in 2H. China faces relatively big downward
pressure on economy in 2H, citing Wang Yiming, deputy director of the
macroeconomic research institute at the National Development and Reform
Commission. Growth may continue to slow for fixed-asset investment,
salary and consumer consumption because of overcapacity in manufacturing
sector, Wang said.
Economic Information Daily:
- China to Study Long-Term Policies to Curb Property. China will
speed up studying mid- and long-term land, finance and tax measures to
curb property market, citing an "internal meeting."
China National Radio:
- China Subway Construction Thwarted by Funding Crunch. China local
govts' difficulties in raising capital have thwarted their plans to
build more subway lines. Local govts have had to pay obligations of
previous debts, causing shortages of funding for infrastructure projects. Only 3 planned lines have started construction this year, after a total of 21 were announced, it said.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.75 +.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated to fall to 5.0 versus 7.84 in June.
- Advance Retail Sales for June are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in May.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in May.
- Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas for June are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in May.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories are May are estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in April.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Taruillo speaking, China Fixed Asset/Industrial Production/GDP data and the RBA minutes could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, more emerging markets unrest, increasing Eurozone/Asian
debt angst, earnings outlook concerns, profit-taking and technical
selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral
signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
S&P 500 1,680.19 +2.96%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 1,036.52 +3.10%
- S&P 500 High Beta 26.17 +2.79%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 441.88 +3.23%
- Russell 1000 Growth 766.34 +3.07%
- Russell 1000 Value 856.52 +2.90%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,034.15 +3.73%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,244.81 +3.52%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 787.02 +3.95%
- Transports 6,436.93 +2.34%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 92.83 +1.99%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 39.0 +3.30%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,116.61 +1.14%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 936.49 -.23%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 191,194 +2.37%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 893 +889
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +50.02%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 305,392 +5.45%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,818,204 +2.73%
- Total Put/Call .89 -5.32%
- ISE Sentiment 72.0 -25.77%
- Volatility(VIX) 13.84 -7.05%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.76 +.06%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.80 -1.55%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.26 -6.13%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,491.87 +.67%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.620 Trillion +.92%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 311.75 +7.50%
- Heating Oil 302.94 +1.16%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.86 +1.59%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 324.33 USD/Ton -3.76%
- China Iron Ore Spot 126.80 USD/Ton +3.43%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,431.75 +1.31%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.6% -70 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1217 -.91%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 117.35 +.37%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.70 +2.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -37.70 -3.4 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 42.0% chance of no change, 58.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31
- US Dollar Index 82.99 -1.73%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.15 -.15%
- Yield Curve 224.0 -10 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.58% -16 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.462 Trillion +.34%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.34 -7.79%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.0 +8.98%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 96.0 unch.
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 237.0 -4.49%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 115.0 -4.56%
- Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 655.39 -15.3%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 385.0 -23 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05% -2 basis points
- TED Spread 23.75 +.5 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 unch.
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.84 -8.44%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 158.68 -4.07%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 319.48 -7.83%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 130.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.537 Trillion +1.11%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 990.50 -4.40%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 351,800 +6,300
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.51% +22 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 533.30 -4.0%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.3 +.2 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% +20 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.55/gallon +.07/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,149 +4.55%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,034.91 n/a
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 +10.0%
- Rail Freight Carloads 205,597 -17.65%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)
- BPI, PSIX, NUS, VPO, JNY, FDO and WWW
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change