Bloomberg:
- Draghi Goes Face-to-Face With Bank Chiefs on Asset Health. Bank
executives traveled to Frankfurt for a first meeting with European
Central Bank President Mario Draghi on the ECB’s review of lenders’
assets. Chief executive officers from banks from five countries --
Germany, Belgium, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg -- met today with Draghi
and other board members at ECB headquarters, a spokeswoman for the
central bank said by telephone. The list included Europe’s largest
investment bank by revenue, Deutsche Bank AG, and lenders such as
Malta’s Bank of Valletta Plc.
- ECB’s Weidmann Says Low Interest Rates Come With Risks. European Central Bank Governing
Council member Jens Weidmann said low interest rates come with
risks that can’t be ignored, even though the current policy
stance is appropriate. “The expansive monetary policy is justified
considering the outlook for price stability,” Weidmann, who heads
Germany’s Bundesbank, said in a speech in Frankfurt today. At the same
time, “one must not lose sight of the many challenges that come
within an environment of low interest rates,” he said.
- European Stocks Drop as Investors Weigh Stimulus Outlook.
European stocks fell, posting the biggest two-day drop in a month, as
investors weighed corporate earnings and speculated stronger economic
data will spur central
banks to pare stimulus measures. Stada Arzneimittel AG and Banco
Popolare SC declined at
least 5.5 percent after reporting profit that missed estimates.
ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG slumped to a five-week low after its
largest shareholder sold an almost 16 percent stake. ICAP Plc
advanced 4.1 percent after saying cost cuts will boost results
this year.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.6 percent to 319.82
at the close of trading.
- Copper Falls Most in 15 Weeks on Fed Bets, China Production.
Copper futures tumbled the most in
15 weeks amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back U.S.
monetary stimulus this year, while output of the metal rose to a monthly
record in China. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said
yesterday that talks on a cut in bond purchases by the central bank
“could well take place” next month. China’s output of
refined copper in October climbed 23 percent to 637,000 metric
tons from a year earlier. Futures have slumped 14 percent in
2013, partly on prospects for increased mine production. “Imminent tapering and Chinese output surges compounded
the weakness,” Michael Turek, a senior director at Newedge
Group SA in New York, said in an e-mail. Copper futures for December delivery slumped 2.3 percent to settle at $3.1595 a pound at 1:21 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since July 26.
- Attack on Junk-Loans Risks LBO Profits as U.S. Cracks Down. Fees for bankers and payouts for
leveraged-buyout funds are at risk of being crimped as federal
regulators crack down on underwriting standards in the market
for high-risk, high-yield loans. The government, in an annual review of bank credit, looked
at a $429 billion sample of leveraged loans and found 42 percent
were “criticized,” or classified as having a deficiency that
might lead to a loss. Starting in September, it sent letters
demanding banks draw up plans to improve the quality of their
loans and a warning that regulators will pay close attention to
high-risk loan performance in stress tests.
- Yellen Rejoins QE Debate as Hearing Gives Critics Forum. Federal
Reserve policy makers have publicly debated whether to maintain their
bond-buying pace since well before Janet Yellen was named last month to
succeed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. One voice has been missing: Yellen’s.
Tomorrow, she’ll express her views publicly for the first
time in seven months on the record stimulus she’s supported and
that some lawmakers are using to justify voting against her.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
- Number of U.S. expatriations reaches record high In 2013. The Treasury Department published the names of 560 Americans who
renounced their citizenship or are long-term residents who gave back
their green cards during the third quarter of 2013, The Wall Street Journal
reported. According to tax lawyer Andrew Mitchel who tracks the data,
these expatriations reached a record high of 2,369 for the year. The
prior highest number of published expatriates was in 2011, said Mitchel.
- Art could be drawing a disturbing economic picture. The Francis Bacon painting "Three Studies of Lucian Freud" was sold
for a whopping $142.4 million as part of a $691.6 million Christie's
sale on Tuesday night, making it the most expensive work of art ever
sold at auction. Some
argue that the sale is giving us a message about inflation that
investors aren't getting from the action in gold, the Dollar Index, or
the government's official consumer price index data.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Times:
LA Times:
The Hill:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Airlines -1.07% 2) Steel -.60% 3) Drugs -.30%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CTXS, BBEP, PERY, CWCO, FI, TEAR, BNNY, ITC, DIOD, AMED, MWE, LCC, MCEP, PAMT, IEP, RYAAY, RAX, CVT, FCN, JOE, NUE, WX, OII, ESPR, TGH and AVIV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) EWJ 2) KSS 3) XCO 4) M 5) AKS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) POST 2) AAPL 3) NUE 4) AMED 5) AGU
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Retail +.74% 2) HMOs +.63% 3) Hospitals +.57%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- TPH, CALL, EJ, LMIA, SINA, HMA, M, GOGO, CSIQ, GSVC, PXD, DECK and WBMD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) LEAP 2) MTW 3) QEP 4) PANW 5) GALE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) F 2) M 3) TWTR 4) GOOG 5) LNKD
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Banks From Emerging Markets Threatened as Credit Boom Diminishes. The world’s largest emerging markets
recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis because
consumers and companies went on a borrowing binge. Now that
credit spree is coming back to haunt banks in those countries. As economies cool, delinquent loans are rising from Turkey
to South Africa. India is injecting money into state-run lenders
facing a surge in soured debt, while Chinese banks have been
told to increase provisions for the same reason. An outflow of funds from emerging markets earlier this
year, sparked by speculation that the Federal Reserve would soon
begin tapering its easy-credit policy, forced up interest rates
in those countries and pushed down currencies. While the flight
of capital halted after the Fed decided in September to continue
its asset purchases, a reversal could threaten economies and
banks in developing nations. “Credit growth in emerging markets has been phenomenal
since 2008 because risk has been underpriced once again, thanks
to zero percent interest rates in the developed world,” said
Satyajit Das, author of a half dozen books on financial risk who
is based in Sydney. “Many borrowers will struggle to repay the
debt, and the money flows out of these markets will make the
problems worse. We’re ripe for a new emerging-market crisis.” Even China, which doesn’t rely on inward cash flows to
finance its economic expansion, faces a choice of restructuring
its indebted and inefficient state-owned industries or allowing
inflation to take hold, according to Das and other analysts.
Like their Western counterparts, emerging-market governments
probably will rescue failing banks if credit deteriorates,
adding to those countries’ economic woes, Das said.
- Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle With Deflation Danger. Central banks are finding it’s
easier to push up stock and home prices than it is to prevent
inflation from falling short of their targets. While declining costs for everything from gasoline to
coffee can be good news for consumers, disinflation makes it
harder for borrowers to pay off debts and businesses to boost
profits. The greater danger comes when disinflation turns into
deflation, which leads households to delay purchases in
anticipation of even lower prices and companies to postpone
investment and hiring as demand for their products dries up. “There is definitely a whiff of disinflation again taking
hold globally,” Robert Sinche, global strategist at Pierpont
Securities Holdings LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said Nov. 5 on
Bloomberg Radio’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”
- Rupiah Weakens as Rate Rise Signals No Current-Account Relief.
Indonesia’s rupiah and stocks fell for a fourth day after yesterday’s
surprise interest-rate rise fueled speculation current-account data
today will show little improvement from the second quarter’s record
deficit. The currency weakened 0.7 percent to 11,673 per dollar as of
9:36 a.m. in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks. That’s just
shy of the four-year low of 11,680 on Sept. 30. The rupiah, Asia’s
worst performing currency this year, has tumbled
6.4 percent since trading at a seven-week high on Oct. 25. The
Jakarta Composite index of shares fell 1.1 percent, taking its
decline this week to 3.2 percent.
- China’s Stocks Drop as Top Party Meeting Disappoints Investors.
China’s stocks slumped for the first time in three days after a
top-level Communist Party meeting disappointed investors looking for
details on policy shifts to combat a slowdown in the world’s
second-largest economy. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and China
Shenhua Energy Co. led declines for energy producers. Ping An Bank Co.
and China Minsheng Banking Corp. slid more than 1.5 percent. Anhui Conch
Cement Co. rose 1.8 percent after its parent increased its stake.
Aerosun Corp. and Beijing Aerospace Changfeng Co. both jumped 10 percent
after the government said it will create a committee to improve
national security strategy. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP)
dropped 0.8 percent to 2,109.68 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break,
while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of Hong Kong-traded
Chinese shares slid
2 percent.
- Asia Stocks Drop on China Plenum Disappointment, Fed Bets.
Asian stocks fell after China’s leaders failed to outline steps to curb
state dominance of the economy and amid bets the Federal Reserve may
start reducing U.S. stimulus next month. Banks slumped in Hong Kong
after a communique at the end of China’s four-day plenum made scant
mention of financial reforms. Tencent Holdings Ltd., China’s biggest
Internet company, fell 2.7 percent after a news report quoted its
chairman saying the company’s valuation is “scarily” high. Noble Group
Ltd. lost 5.1 percent in Singapore after Asia’s largest commodity trader
by sales said profit slumped. Pioneer Corp. surged 14 percent after the
Japanese maker of car stereos reported an unexpected first-half
operating profit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6 percent to 139.01 as of 12:16 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for its first decline in
three days. All 10 industry groups on the measure fell.
- Rebar Swings as Investors Weigh Policy Shift, Weak Winter Demand.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai swung between gains and
losses as investors weighed positive long-term policy shifts in China
against the short-term outlook for weaker demand in winter. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the
Shanghai Futures Exchange, was 0.2 percent lower at 3,663 yuan
($601) a metric ton at 10:19 a.m. local time after earlier
rising as much as 0.2 percent and falling 0.5 percent.
- Netanyahu Says Iran Stands to Gain Billions in Relief. Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran would reap billions of
dollars under a deal to ease economic sanctions that negotiators almost
reached at nuclear talks in Geneva last week. “It gives Iran a tremendous break, a hole -- not a tiny hole, but a big hole -- in sanctions,” Netanyahu said late
yesterday in a speech to the Bloomberg Fuel Choices Summit in
Tel Aviv. It would gain “several billion dollars’ worth that is
augmented to much more.” Netanyahu has urged President Barack Obama and other world leaders to reject any deal with Iran that doesn’t dismantle its
nuclear program, and opposed the accord that was offered to Iran
by world powers in Geneva last week.
- Saudis Join China, Russia as UN Human Rights Council Members. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia were
elected today to the United Nations Human Rights Council over
protests by independent rights groups that the countries aren’t
suited to serve on the world rights watchdog. The three countries have multiple outstanding requests from
independent UN monitors to visit and investigate alleged rights
abuses, according to New York-based Human Rights Watch. China and Russia each won 176 of 192 votes, exceeding
France’s 174 votes and the U.K.’s 171. Saudi Arabia received 140
votes. The minimum required was 97. “We regret that some countries elected to the Human Rights
Council have failed to show their commitment to the promotion
and protection of human rights,” U.S. State Department
spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters today.
- Gross Raises Government Debt Holdings in Flagship Fund. Pacific
Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross raised the percentage of
Treasuries and other U.S. government-related debt in his flagship fund
in October after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly maintained its bond
purchases. The proportion of U.S. government and related debt in the
$248 billion Total Return Fund climbed to 37 percent from 35 percent
the prior month, data on Pimco’s website show. Mortgage debt fell to 34
percent from 35 percent in
September. The Newport Beach, California-based company doesn’t comment
directly on monthly changes in holdings or specific types of securities
within a market sector.
- Obama to Nominate Massad as CFTC Chairman Gensler Successor. Timothy
Massad, the Treasury Department official responsible for
overseeing the U.S. rescue of banks and automakers after the credit
crisis, will be nominated to head the country’s top derivatives
regulator. President Barack Obama chose Massad, 57, to succeed Gary
Gensler as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an
agency with expansive new authority under
the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. His nomination requires Senate confirmation.
Wall Street Journal:
- China Deepens Xi's Powers With New Security Plan. China's
Communist Party plans to establish a state security committee that has
the potential to cement President Xi Jinping's hold on the military,
domestic security and foreign policy and help establish him as the
country's most individually powerful leader
since
Deng Xiaoping. The move is another step toward
granting Mr. Xi a level of authority that eluded his two predecessors
and reverses the trend toward a collective leadership since Deng, who
launched China's market-oriented reforms in 1978 and commanded respect
across the military and the government.
- Panel Unveils Shake-up in Strategy to Cut Heart Risk. Long-standing strategy jettisoned under new guidelines. The current strategy of reducing a person's
heart-attack risk by lowering cholesterol to specific targets is being
jettisoned under new clinical guidelines unveiled Tuesday that mark the
biggest shift in cardiovascular-disease prevention in nearly three
decades. The change could more than
double the number of Americans who qualify for treatment with the
cholesterol-cutting drugs known as statins.
- Small Business and ObamaCare. A new survey shows that employers will drop coverage and cut hours.
One of President Obama's proudest boasts about the Affordable Care Act
is that it helps small business. The White House website says the health
law "makes it easier for businesses to find better coverage options"
and "stops insurance companies from taking advantage of you, giving the
consumer and business owner more control and making health-care coverage
more affordable." Small businesses aren't buying it.
Fox News:
- Western-raised jihadists pouring into Syria could threaten US in future. Most of the more than 1,000 jihadists who have poured into Syria to
fight alongside Al Qaeda carry passports from North America and Europe,
raising the possibility that they could easily bring terror back to the
west, according to a key lawmaker who receives regular briefings on the
issue. The prospect is especially chilling given that Al Qaeda-linked
fighters in Syria seem determined to use the embattled nation as a haven
from which to launch future attacks beyond the region, according to
Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., who chairs the House Intelligence Committee.
MarketWatch.com:
- China non-performing loan ratio rises. Chinese banks' non-performing loan ratio rose slightly
to 0.97% at the end of September from 0.96% a quarter earlier, the
China Bank Regulatory Commission said on Wednesday. Non-performing loans totalled 563.6 billion yuan ($92.5 billion) at the
end of third quarter, compared with CNY539.5 billion at the end of June,
according to the banking regulator.
CNBC:
- Citadel's Ken Griffin: I would break up the big banks. (video) Ken Griffin, one of America's best-known hedge fund investors, has a
radical idea: Break up big banks, and restore competition and
transparency to the financial services industry. The head of Citadel Capital came out swinging at his own industry in a rare public interview at The New York Times' DealBook Conference on Tuesday. America's banks have become not just too big to fail, but too big to
manage, Griffin told Andrew Ross Sorkin. The first wave of the wand
would be to separate securities trading businesses from banking
businesses, reducing the kind of systemic risk that led to the financial
crisis.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
- Troubled HealthCare.gov unlikely to work fully by end of November. Software problems with the federal online health insurance marketplace,
especially in handling high volumes, are proving so stubborn that the
system is unlikely to work fully by the end of the month as the White
House has promised, according to an official with knowledge of the
project.
Reuters:
- Yum(YUM) China sales down 5 percent in October. KFC
and Pizza Hut parent Yum Brands Inc on Tuesday said October sales at
established restaurants in China fell 5 percent, as it fights to recover
from a chicken safety scare and bird flu outbreak in its top market.
- Brazil stocks drop as state-run firms sink.
Brazilian stocks slipped for the third session in four on Tuesday, due
mostly to a fall in shares of state-run companies Banco do Brasil and
Petrobras. Mexico's IPC index edged lower, while Chile's bourse
rose 0.11 percent. Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index fell 1.56
percent to 51,804.33, its lowest level since early September.
- Tesla(TSLA) car fires 'definitely' will not lead to recall: CEO. Tesla
Motors Inc (TSLA.O) will not recall its Model S electric car despite
three vehicle fires that raised safety questions and hurt the
automaker's stock price, CEO Elon Musk said on Tuesday.
"There's definitely
not going to be a recall," Musk said during a New York Times DealBook
conference televised on CNBC. "There's no reason for a recall, I
believe."
Financial Times:
- Healthcare companies say new ‘Obamacare’ fees should be dropped. Healthcare
companies, including big US hospital chains and insurance groups, are
seeking to overturn new fees which would cost them hundreds of billions
of dollars amid concerns over the troubled rollout of “Obamacare”. The move has won some bipartisan support in the US Congress.
- Biggest banks face forex probe questions. The global probe into foreign exchange manipulation has widened to include 15 of the world’s biggest banks and some of the
most actively traded currencies, as lenders scramble to help authorities
in exchange for leniency.
Ming Pao:
- Tencent Chairman Sees Co. Valuation as 'Scarily' High. Tencent
valuation will fall if co. doesn't keep up with trends and carefully
watch its technology and internet business, citing Chairman Ma Huateng
at a co. event.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.0 +2.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0 +1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.44%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
2:00 am EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for October is estimated at -$102.0B versus -$120.0B in September.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Pianalto speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, Japan GDP, BoE inflation report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Morgan Stanley Chemicals/Ag Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference and the JP Morgan Services Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.47 -3.33%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.57 +.68%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 -.73%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.11 +3.73%
- ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +12.15%
- Total Put/Call .75 -6.25%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.28 +2.54%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.86 +3.13%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.70 -3.78%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 303.44 +1.07%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 -1 basis point
- TED Spread 18.25 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.90/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.60 -1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.80 -3.6 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -63 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Steel -2.34% 2) Alt Energy -2.21% 3) Coal -1.80%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SRPT, HOLX, RAX, AMED, LMIA, CLH, VSAT, SYMC, DF, ESE, INSY, TMUS, IEP, MCEP, ASML, ARP, ACM, LMCA, PCG, BANC, MELI, EC, BC, UEIC, ACE, VECO, NRG, PER and SDR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) RAX 2) DISH 3) LO 4) MMM 5) KSS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) SRPT 2) AMED 3) NFLX 4) XOM 5) SBUX
Charts: