Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.65%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -,32% 2) Oil Tankers -.15% 3) Homebuilders +.23%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ENH, HMSY, AR, DWCH, VJET, BIS, EPAM, NQ, MDT, TKMR, IMPV, PRTA, CUK, WBAI, FLML, QIWI, ANIP, BNFT, DDD, GOGO, PFPT, LNG, GPS, XONE and RTRX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WDAY 2) GOOG 3) HYG 4) XLF 5) OIH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SHLD 2) WFM 3) CRUS 4) NDAQ 5) GLW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.24% 2) Internet +1.95% 3) Biotech +1.76%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AHL, EW, GDP, WBMD, GLOG, ATI, C, CRK, SWC, HLF, FLDM, CRK, SPLK, SN, ZLTQ, SWC, SSYS, NR, WDAY, DEPO, ACOR, ATI and C

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCL 2) HK 3) LNC 4) SYNA 5) AWAY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) C 2) JBHT 3) FEYE 4) GD 5) EW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg

• Ukraine Tension Mounts as Police Face Gunfire in East. Tensions rose in Ukraine’s eastern regions today as gunmen seized a police station and attacked two others, prompting the government in Kiev to accuse Russia of “external aggression” to destablize the country. Protesters took over the police station in Donetsk, sparking the local police chief’s resignation. About 20 gunmen in camouflage gear blocked off the police and security service headquarters in nearby Slovyansk, seizing weapons and taking hostages, the Interior Ministry said. Police stations in nearby Krasnyi Liman and Kramatorsk came under assault as police exchanged fire with unidentified attackers, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said. Ukraine sent special-forces troops to contain the situation, he said. 
• Eastern Ukraine Violence Brings ‘Crunch Time’ for U.S., EU. The U.S. and European Union have reached “crunch time” to halt further destabilization in Ukraine and curb any further Russian expansion in the region. Prospects for a negotiated end to the crisis were set back after camouflaged gunmen fired on government forces near Slovyansk, about 240 kilometers (150 miles) from the Russian frontier in eastern Ukraine. There were casualties on both sides. Russia requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council at 8 p.m. in New York. The U.S. backed Ukraine’s accusation that Russia was behind the violence.
• Japan Inflation Acceleration Risks Souring Public on Abenomics. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to vault Japan out of 15 years of deflation risks losing public support by spurring too much inflation too quickly as companies add extra price increases to this month’s sales-tax bump. Businesses from Suntory Beverage and Food Ltd. to beef bowl chain Yoshinoya Holdings Co. have raised costs more than the 3 percentage point levy increase. This month’s inflation rate could be 3.5 percent, the fastest since 1982, according to Yoshiki Shinke, the most accurate forecaster of Japan’s economy for two years running in data compiled by Bloomberg.
• PBOC’s Yi Says China’s Growth Rate Is Within ‘Reasonable Range'. China’s economy is growing at an acceptable pace, China’s central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang said, adding to signals policy makers will avoid broad stimulus to counter a slowdown. “Economic growth is still within a reasonable range,” Yi said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington, responding to a question about whether he’s concerned that recent weakness in economic data points to a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. 
• Singapore Dollar Most Vulnerable to U.S. Rates: Chart of the Day. Singapore’s dollar has emerged as Asia’s most-vulnerable currency to prospects of higher U.S. interest rates, driving a gauge measuring the relationship to a record high.
• China’s Top Broker Citic Takes BTIG Stake as CLSA Unit Expands. Citic Securities Co., China’s largest brokerage, acquired a stake in U.S. trading firm BTIG LLC as it expands around the world.
• Germany Warns European Markets Not to Celebrate Prematurely. Germany’s top finance officials warned investors against prematurely celebrating an overhaul of Europe’s economies four years after they plunged into crisis. “It’s good that markets have become more confident again,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters in Washington yesterday during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. “But I’ve said that in parts they’re already exaggerating again.” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said yesterday at the same IMF meetings “there’s a discussion about a stability risk that’s created by financial markets in a certain way running ahead of adjustment processes.” 
• Euro Slides Versus Most Peers as Draghi Warns of ECB Stimulus. The euro weakened versus most of its 16 major peers after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said its strength “requires further monetary stimulus.”
• Technology Bears Miss 20% Payouts After Giving Up on Short Sales. Bears who abandoned bets against technology companies from Facebook (FB) Inc. to Netflix Inc. (NFLX) in 2013 can only sit and watch now as the stocks tumble.
• New York Billionaires Help Obama Policy Group Raise $6 Million. Since Obama’s campaign manager Jim Messina started the group early last year, it has brought in about $32 million. Billionaire David Shaw, who started the New York-based hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co., wrote a $500,000 check; billionaire New York architect Jon Stryker, whose fortune comes from his family’s medical supply business, gave $100,000; Mark Gallogly, co-founder of New York’s Centerbridge Partners LP, supplied $100,000. Amy Goldman Fowler, an author and expert on seeds who’s based in New York, gave $250,000, adding to her $500,000 contribution from last year.
• CBS CEO Moonves Reaps $200 Million in Pay Over Three Years. Leslie Moonves, chief executive officer of CBS Corp. (CBS:US), received $66.9 million in compensation last year, bringing his three-year total to almost $200 million and highlighting the rich payouts in media. His boss Sumner Redstone, who also draws a paycheck as chairman of Viacom Inc. (VIAB:US), got $109 million from CBS over those same years, according to a regulatory filing (CBS:US) today.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• The West Leaves Ukraine to Putin. As Russian special forces invade the country's east, Kiev's leaders feel betrayed by the EU and America.
• Amazon(AMZN) Preparing to Release Smartphone. Retailer Has Plans to Announce Phone in June, Begin Shipping By End of September. 
• Wal-Mart(WMT) Cries Foul on China Fines. Company Says Safety Burden Unfairly Falls on Retailers, Rather Than Manufacturers. 
• Deadly Virus's Spread Raises Alarms in Mideast. Saudis Defend Approach to MERS Outbreak, Even as Cases Increase.
• Opposition Accuses Syrian Regime of Attacks With Lethal Chlorine Gas. Clashes Intensify in Northern City of Aleppo.

Fox News:

• 3 dead in shootings at Jewish centers in Kansas, authorities say. A man in his 70s opened fire Sunday outside of a Jewish community center and nearby retirement community, killing three people, authorities said, while the FBI is joining local police in the search for a motive. Overland Park Police Chief John Douglass said at a news conference Sunday evening that a person who had been reported to be in critical condition earlier was among three killed in the attacks, which apparently occurred minutes apart.

CNBC:

• Markets wrong to think euro crisis over: UBS chair. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. "Markets, when they re-price, always overshoot. But at the moment, as they're re-pricing to a normal situation, they're also overshooting," Weber, currently chairman of Swiss bank UBS, told CNBC in an interview at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington. "The market is probably too benign on some of the developments in Europe. It's pricing as if the problems were behind us, but what is behind us is the bad headlines, and the problems are still there," he warned.

Zero Hedge:

• Chief Economist Of Central Banks' Central Bank: "It's Extremely Dangerous... I See Speculative Bubbles Like In 2007". 
• Ukraine Mobilizes Military, Gives Separatists Ultimatum; Russia Slams Escalation As "Criminal", Yanukovich Warns Of Civil War.
• Nasdaq Breaks 4,000; Collapses To Worst Week Since June 2012. (graph)
• NSA Abused Heartbleed Bug For Years, Left Consumers Exposed To Attack.
• 5 Things To Ponder: Is This "THE" Correction?
• Goldman(GS) Summarizes The Rout: "Derisking Is The Name Of The Game".
• Putting The "Costs" Of US Sanctions On Russia In Context. (graph)
• As The Bitcoin Bubble Bursts, Digital Currencies Have A Dilution Problem. (graph)
• All Hail The Draghi Put: The Global Bond Market Is Now Well And Truly Broken.
• Shipbuilding Orders Evaporate As Baltic Dry Collapses. (graph)
• Ukraine Sends Special Forces To "Deal" With Separatists Who Take Over Another East Ukraine City. 
• Russia Tells Ukraine It Won't "Accept" Force Against Demonstrators. 
• "The Liberation Of Southeast Ukraine Has Begun" - Crimean Vice Premier.
• "Shadows Of March 2000" - Goldman On The Great Momo Crash Of 2014.
• “It’s not a bubble,” Retail Investors Are Told As The Smart Money Bails Out.
• Putting The "Bank Loans Are Rising & Animal Spirits Are Reviving" Meme In Context. 
• Ukraine Prepares Military Response To Russian "Act Of Aggression"; Fears Specter of "Gas Wars". 
• Why The Standoff At The Bundy Ranch Is A Very Big Deal.
• One Killed, Many Wounded After Shooting Breaks Out Between Ukraine Special Forces And Pro-Russia Separatists.
• Barclays Asks Is It Finally Time To Short Japanese Bonds?
• "Analysts" Lower Revenue Growth Expectations By Most In 18 Months. (graph).
• HFT Purge Begins: SEC Prepares To "Remove" Some High Frequency Trading Firms.
• CME Sued For Giving "High-Frequency Traders Peek At Market" Since 2007.

Business Insider:

• The Collapse Of Momentum Stocks Is An Ominous Change.
• Hedge Funds' Favorite Stocks Are Getting Shredded.
• NOW IT'S PERSONAL: Protesters Are Targeting Tech Execs Individually, By Name.
• Wall Street's Brightest Minds Reveal THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE WORLD.
• Ukraine Suspends Gas Payments To Russia.
• CITI(C): Here's The Real 'Wile E. Coyote' Moment That Could Send Markets Much Lower. Investors may be coming perilously close to realizing that market levels owe everything to central bank stimulus and nothing to an improvement in underlying fundamentals. What if the much heralded “improvement in earnings to match the rerating in the market” fails to be delivered in coming weeks? How long till investors realize that extra stimulus in Japan might stem the Nikkei’s decline, but is unlikely to generate the economic recovery everyone is hoping for, no matter how large its size? And that the problem afflicting China – that the growth rates to which investors have become accustomed are utterly reliant on an unsustainable expansion of credit – is in fact a problem worldwide? 
• ANALYST: These Two Charts Show The Market's Been On Borrowed Time For Years. (graph) 
• THE BIG UNWIND: Here's How Hedge Funds Drove The Brutal NASDAQ Selloff.
• Russia’s Devious Plan For Eastern Ukraine Is Working.
• Ex-CBS News Reporter: Obama Administration Wants To Have 'A Chilling Effect' On The Press.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: More Volatility Ahead!

Philly.com:

• Meet the influential head of the Philadelphia Fed.

Financial Times:

• Fed policy maker warns on low rates stance. The US Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low even once the economy is back to normal could risk a policy mistake, a Fed policy maker has warned in an interview with the Financial Times. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, said he did not see a persuasive reason to think interest rates should be below their long-run level in 2016, if unemployment and inflation are back to normal.
• Slowdown puts 1bn middle class at risk. Almost a billion people in the developing world are at risk of slipping out of the ranks of a nascent middle class, according to FT analysis, raising questions about the durability of the past 30 years’ remarkable march out of poverty.

People's Daily:

• China Premier Li Calls Stabilizing Economy 'Heavy Task'. The current domestic and global environment are complicated and China can't underestimate difficulties.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 +1.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.57%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MTB)/1.61

• (C)/1.14

• (JBHT)/.61

Economic Releases 
8:30 pm EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.3% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM for March are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for March are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Febuary.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in January.

Upcoming Splits

• (UA) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Production data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
U.S. Economic Preview by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears and increasing emerging markets/European debt angst offset yen weakness, bargain-hunting and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,815.69 -2.65%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,815.69 -2.65%

• DJIA 16,026.76 -2.35%

• NASDAQ 3,999.73 -3.10%

• Russell 2000 1,111.44 -3.64%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.65 -4.35%

• Wilshire 5000 19,046.43 -2.82%

• Russell 1000 Growth 838.76 -2.78%

• Russell 1000 Value 928.80 -2.71%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 439.21 -.31%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,465.95 -3.33%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 891.74 -2.58%

• Transports 7,632.69 -2.75%

• Utilities 534.32 +.51%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.39 -4.32%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.88 +1.33%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,172.34 -1.23%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 975.05 -.08%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 210,397 -.92%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -82 -517

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.59 +28.74%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 399,787 +2.04%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,655,472 +.67%

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +24.21%

• OEX Put/Call 1.39 -6.08%

• ISE Sentiment 78.0 -2.50%

• NYSE Arms 1.55 +27.05%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.03 +21.99%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.06 +8.56%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.82 -4.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.37 +1.33%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,830.0 -3.47%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.612 Trillion -.67%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.949 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.5 -20.1%
• AAII % Bears 34.1 +27.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 309.39 +1.49%

• Crude Oil 103.74 +2.65%

• Reformulated Gasoline 301.44 +2.84%

• Natural Gas 4.62 +4.60%

• Heating Oil 292.32 +.88%

• Gold 1,319.0 +1.28%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 190.84 +1.81%

• Copper 304.15 +.51%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.90 USD/Ton +1.04%

• Lumber 328.30 +.18%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,526.71 -.19%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.3% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0666 -15.69%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.62 +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.20 +3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.10 -15.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30

• US Dollar Index 79.45 -1.20%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.22 -.31%

• Yield Curve 227.0 -4 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.62% -10 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.201 Trillion +.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.0 +5.88%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 130.0 -5.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 36.0 -2.70%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 88.38 -.46%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 255.42 +5.49%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.50 +.57%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.77 +2.10%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 351.33 +.18%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% unch.

• TED Spread 19.0 -2.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.50 -1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.85 +4.83%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 82.67 -.65%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 279.45 +.49%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 83.0 -1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.732 Trillion +.74%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,038.10 +.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 316,250 -3,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.34% -7 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 351.0 -1.60%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.90 -1.9 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.7% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.62/gallon +.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,029 -14.60%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,068.05 -.15%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,084 -1.55%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -4.1%

Leading Sectors

• Utilities +.5%

• Steel -.2%

• Foods -.3%

• Computer Services -.4%

• Agriculture -.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -5.0% 

• Banks -5.0%

• Hospitals -6.0%

• 3D Printing -7.1%

• Education -8.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• VOCS, AGIO, CTCT, QCOR, ECOL and SNX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)

• STZ, IBKR, WMC, MAIN, GPN, NOW, AHT, ROVI, ETFC, USTR, BBBY, AJG, GMED, PACW, GWRE, MGNX, CSOD, SPNC, PBYI, WWE, GIMO and IMPV

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change