Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine Deploys Military as Russia Evokes Specter of Civil War. Ukraine unleashed an offensive to dislodge militants from towns in its eastern Donetsk region as the authorities in Kiev said elements of Russian special forces were identified among the anti-government forces. Four militants were killed and two wounded when Ukrainian troops stormed an airport in Kramatorsk, taking it under control, Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news service reported. Ukrainian units backed by armored personnel carriers blocked all approaches to the town of Slovyansk, RIA said, citing a pro-Russian activist, Sergey Tsyplakov. Part of Russia’s 45th Airborne Regiment was spotted in both of the towns, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Vitali Yarema said on Channel 5.

• U.S. Mulls Ukraine With EU as Putin Warns on Intervention. The U.S. and European Union deliberated deepening sanctions against Russia for stoking unrest in eastern Ukraine, while President Vladimir Putin said he’s being called on to intervene in the former Soviet republic. The Kiev-based government started an “anti-terrorist” operation in the eastern Donetsk region after fighting between its forces and pro-Russian separatists who seized police and security buildings there turned deadly this week.

• Spain Anxiety on Euro Leaves Rajoy With Two-Front Battle. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is counting on Mario Draghi’s help in a battle on two fronts against the strength of the euro. With the currency reaching a level high enough to provoke the European Central Bank president to threaten action, data today showed slowing euro-area export growth and figures tomorrow will confirm the damage caused to inflation. For Spain, the effect has already been double-edged, depressing consumer prices enough to cause annual declines in an economy beset with unemployment, while also threatening its export-based recovery. 

• German Investor Confidence Falls for Fourth Month in April. German investor confidence fell for a fourth month in April, highlighting the risks to the recovery in Europe’s largest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 43.2 from 46.6 in March. Economists forecast a decline to 45, according to the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gauge reached a seven-year high of 62 in December.

• Japan’s Population Shrinks for Third Year as Ranks of Aged Grow. Japan’s population slid for a third year with the proportion of people over the age of 65 rising to a record, underscoring the challenge the world’s most-indebted economy faces in financing its aging society.  The population declined by 0.17 percent to 127.3 million as of Oct. 1, as the country maintains one of the world’s lowest birth rate. People age 65 or older made up one fourth of the total, the highest-ever percentage, as postwar baby boomers head into retirement, the Internal Affairs Ministry said on its website yesterday. 

• India’s Consumer Inflation Quickens, Adding Rate Pressure. India’s consumer-price inflation quickened in March for the first time in four months, keeping pressure on the central bank to keep interest rates elevated. The consumer-price index rose 8.31 percent from a year earlier, compared with a revised 8.03 percent in February, the Central Statistics Office said in New Delhi today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 39 analysts was for an 8.25 percent increase. 

• Wynn Resorts(WYNN) Leads Casinos Lower on Drop in China Credit. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) fell as much as 7.5 percent, the most in 17 months, after an analyst said less borrowing in China may lead to a drop in betting by high rollers in Macau, the casino company’s biggest market. Wynn, based in Las Vegas, slid 5.6 percent to $198.67 at 1:40 p.m. in New York after tumbling as low as $194.64 to mark the biggest intraday decline since November 2012. Other U.S. casino companies with operations in Macau also dropped.

• Worst Attack in Nigeria Capital Kills 75 in Rush Hour. The worst-ever bomb attack on Nigeria’s capital which killed at least 75 people has sparked concern Islamists are shifting their targets from the northeast to the center and south of Africa’s biggest oil producer. President Goodluck Jonathan, who visited the scene, blamed the Islamist militant group Boko Haram for the car bomb.

• Lawmakers Back High-Frequency Trade Curbs in EU Markets Law.

• Biggest Banks Face Tougher Basel Rule on Risk Concentration. Banks identified as systemically important to the global economy face tighter rules on how much business they can do with each other as part of a push to limit the chance a single failure would drag down multiple lenders.

• Emerging-Market Stocks Fall Most in Month Amid Chinese Slowdown. Emerging-market stocks dropped the most in a month after data showed a decline in Chinese lending and the weakest money-supply expansion on record, adding to concern about a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.2 percent to 1,000.13 at 10:44 a.m. in New York. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 1.4 percent while the one-year interest-rate swap slipped to a month low. Vale SA (VALE:US), which ships half of its ore and pellets to China, drove a slump in Brazil’s Ibovespa. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) slid to the most in five weeks and a debt sale was canceled as talks between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to end a deadlock over Ukraine. China’s broadest measure of new credit plunged 19 percent in March from a year earlier and growth in M2 money supply slowed to 12.1 percent from 13.3 percent, the central bank reported today.

• European Stocks Fall Amid Ukraine Violence, German Data. European stocks declined, erasing their gains for the year, after a report that Russian troops entered towns in eastern Ukraine, and as German confidence data missed economists’ forecasts. SABMiller Plc lost 2.3 percent after saying it is considering options for the sale of its $1.04 billion stake in Tsogo Sun Holdings Ltd. Rio Tinto (RIO) Group fell 3.1 percent after reporting first-quarter iron-ore output that missed forecasts. L’Oreal SA gained 1.1 percent after posting higher first-quarter European revenue. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1 percent to 326.58 at the close of trading.

• Gold Futures Drop Most This Year on Stimulus Concerns. Gold headed for the biggest drop this year on concern that a pickup in U.S. consumer prices will give the Federal Reserve leeway to further scale back stimulus. Palladium fell for the first time in six sessions.

Wall Street Journal:

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage.

• Russian forces spotted on ground in eastern Ukraine.

• Boston Pays Tribute a Year After the Marathon Bombing. Citywide Moment of Silence at 2:49 p.m. Is One of Many Ways City Marks the Anniversary.

• Yellen Says More Capital Would Help Biggest, Most-Complex Banks. U.S. Central Bank Considering Additional Measures Against Risks in Short-Term Credit Markets. 

• Housing Trouble Grows in China. Overbuilding by Real-Estate Developers Leaves Smaller Cities With Glut of Apartments.

MarketWatch:

• Hedge funds helped fuel financial crisis: SF Fed. Research argues link with housing selloff. Hedge funds helped fuel the global financial crisis just like banks and insurance firms, according to new research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that goes against conventional wisdom on the meltdown of 2007-2009.

CNBC: 

• Prepare for deeper selloff if this happens: Cashin. (video)

• Dozens of top Nasdaq names in bear market territory.

• Outlook for pensions is pretty awful: Bridgewater. (video)

• Why Japanese bonds look 'terrible': Kyle Bass. (video) Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass believes Wall Street's recent declines in the biotech and social media sector, which spread to global stock markets last week, shows cracks in the Japanese economy.

ZeroHedge: 

• "Ukraine In Very Dangerous Situation", No Lethal Assistance Coming Says White House.

• Japan To Downgrade Economic Assessment In April, So More BOJ QE Right? (Spoiler Alert: No).

• "Growth" Stocks Tumble To 7-Month Lows To "Value" As Bond Yields Collapse. (graph)

• Two Very Different Views On Soaring Food Inflation. (graph)

• European Stocks Tumble As Investors Rush Into "Safe Haven" Italian Bonds!?

• Russell 2000 Breaks Below Key Technical Level. (graph)

• Homebuilder Confidence Misses For 4th Month In A Row. (graph)

BaseMetals.com:

• Base metals prices drift lower, risk-off weighs. Base metals other than the tin price were lower in Tuesday's LME premarket on growing risk aversion, while forecast-missing data from China also dampened optimism.

Reuters:

• Suspected Islamist rebels abduct over 100 Nigerian schoolgirls: teacher. Suspected Islamist insurgents have abducted more than 100 female students in a night raid on a government secondary school in Nigeria's northeast Borno state, a teacher said on Tuesday. He said gunmen, believed to be members of the Boko Haram Islamist group which has attacked schools in the northeast before as part of their anti-government rebellion, carried off the students from the school in Chibok late on Monday. "Over 100 female students in our government secondary school at Chibok have been abducted," said Audu Musa, who teaches in another public school in the area, around 140 km (90 miles) south of the Borno state capital Maiduguri. Musa said he saw eight bodies in the area on Tuesday morning, but did not give the identity of the victims. "Things are very bad here and everybody is sad," he said.

• Zebra Tech to buy Motorola Solutions' enterprise business. Barcode printer maker Zebra Technologies Corp said it would buy Motorola Solutions Inc's enterprise business, which makes rugged mobile computers, tablets and barcode scanners, for $3.45 billion in its biggest deal ever.

Telegraph:

• France is the new cauldron of Eurosceptic revolution. Britain is marginal to the great debate on Europe. France is the linchpin, fast becoming a cauldron of Eurosceptic/Poujadist views on the Right, anti-EMU reflationary Keynesian views on the Left, mixed with soul-searching over the wisdom of monetary union across the French establishment. Marine Le Pen’s Front National leads the latest IFOP poll for the European elections next month at 24pc. Her platform calls for immediate steps to ditch the euro and restore the franc (“franc des Anglais” in origin, rid of the English oppressors), and to hold a referendum on withdrawal from the EU.

LondonEveningStandard:

• London living through biggest house price bubble ever. 'Unreal' property market in capital soars by 13.8% in a year.

Die Zeit:

• Russia Must Back Off Ukraine, Germany's Steinmeier Says. Russia must distance itself from involvement with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine., German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says in an interview.

RIA Novosti:

• Russia Says UN Peacekeepers in East Ukraine Unacceptable. Use of fore in eastern Ukraine is unacceptable, would halt Geneva talks, citing comments by Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to reporters in Beijing. Russia calls on Ukraine to stop quashing protests.

• Russia Deeply Concerned by Deaths in Ukraine Operation. Events in Ukraine developing along worst possible lines, citing Konstantin Dolgov, Russian Foreign Ministry's special representative for democracy and human rights. Ukrainian govt appears to have chosen to use fore to put down protests in southeastern Ukraine. Ukraine's actions risk civil war, destabilization of situation across country.

• Russia Calls on U.S. to Restrain Ukraine Crackdown. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says military crackdown on pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine risks "total collapse of the state," citing an interview.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.92%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -5.11% 2) Steel -5.10% 3) Biotech -3.40%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• IBB, TQQQ, ZBRA, CNSI, BCO, PBY, MSI, GLOG, INFY, APAM, TKMR, ARWR, SNN, BTI, IMPV, AAN, PLL, TITN, CSH, HCLP, RARE, INDY, ANIP, KPTI, MGNX, PRIM, AMAT, HCLP, NTRS, RCII, CSH, PETM, OZRK, RKT, IEP, AAN, WYNN, SGMS, BABY, MGNX, PBYI, TITN, INCY, ANAC, RTRX, ACAD, BCO, ICPT, ARWR and PBY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ANV 2) GOOG 3) AOL 4) AMAT 5) FXI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ADBE 2) BBY 3) RYL 4) TOL 5) PETM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.12%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +.49% 2) Utilities +.36% 3) REITs +.17%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CONN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARUN 2) RRC 3) UCO 4) SBGI 5) CL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JNJ 2) KO 3) T 4) TWC 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Fragile Europe Economy Weakens U.S. Push for Russia Sanctions. The U.S. readiness to impose new economic sanctions on Russia over Ukraine is offset by the European Union’s reluctance to introduce stronger measures that could threaten its already fragile economic recovery. While the Obama administration said yesterday that it’s prepared to ramp up sanctions, possibly to target specific sectors of the Russian economy such as financial services and energy, the EU limited its decision to expanding an existing list of individuals under asset freezes and travel bans. 

• China GDP Gauge Seen Showing More Drop Than Main Measure. China’s loss of economic momentum in the first quarter was deeper than the most widely-cited data will show, according to analyst forecasts for a gauge that’s gaining increasing recognition. Gross domestic product grew 1.5 percent from the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of data released tomorrow, down from 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. That indicates a sharper deceleration than the median projection for 7.3 percent growth from a year earlier, down from 7.7 percent.

• Chinese Stocks Decline Most in Three Weeks as Money Growth Slows. China’s stocks declined the most in three weeks, led by financial companies and commodity producers, after the nation’s money supply increased at the slowest pace since 2001. Poly Real Estate Group Co. and Industrial Bank Co. dropped more than 2 percent as a gauge of financial shares, headed for its biggest loss in a month. China Shenhua Energy Co., the publicly traded unit of the nation’s largest coal producer, slid 1.5 percent. Tianjin Faw Xiali Automobile Co. declined 1 percent after saying its net loss probably widened in the first quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 0.9 percent to 2,114.69 at 10:47 a.m. local time, heading for its biggest retreat since March 20.

• Asian Stock Index Headed for First Advance in Three Days. Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days after the largest jump in U.S. retail sales since 2012 added to optimism that the recovery in the world’s biggest economy is intact. Nissan Motor Co. led Japanese exporters higher. Asics Corp. gained 3.7 percent in Tokyo after Nomura Holdings Inc. advised buying shares of the sportswear maker. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) climbed 1 percent in Sydney after iron-ore production at the world’s second-largest miner rose to a record in the first quarter. SK Hynix Inc. advanced 2.3 percent in Seoul after Shinhan Investment forecast improved profit at the semiconductor maker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 137.83 as of 9:29 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.

• Rio Produces Record Iron-Ore Output as Global Supply Gains. Rio Tinto Group (RIO), the world’s second-largest mining company, said first-quarter iron ore production rose to a record, swelling global supply that’s forecast to head into surplus this year. Output rose 8 percent to 52.3 million metric tons from 48.3 million tons a year earlier, London-based Rio said today in a statement. This missed the 54.7 million-ton median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg after bad weather affected mines and ports.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Regulators Weigh Curbs on Trading Fees. SEC Officials Consider Testing 'Maker-Taker' Plans.

Fox News:

• Survey shows ObamaCare sending premiums rising at fastest clip in decades. A recent survey of 148 insurance brokers shows that ObamaCare is sending premiums rising at the fastest clip in decades. "For the last, about, five years they've been doing this survey, so this was the largest percentage increase in any quarter since they've been doing (it)," says Scott Gottlieb of the American Enterprise Institute. "But at 12 percent, 11 percent increase on average across all the states -- that puts it at the upper end of any increase we've seen for decades." That is the national average in a survey done by Morgan Stanley. But in some states, it found rates are soaring. "There are specific states with exorbitant increases," says Gottlieb.  "Delaware had 100 percent increase, Florida had a 37 percent increase, Pennsylvania 28 percent increase, California had a 53 percent increase in their premiums."  

MarketWatch.com: 

• Weibo IPO hit with warning of ‘fast money’. China’s version of Twitter going public at a time when Chinese IPOs ‘doing poorly’.

CNBC:

• Odds favor a 10-20 percent correction: Strategist. Stocks could be setting up for a 10 to 20 percent correction, and the odds are good that it will be soon, according to Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P/Capital IQ.

Zero Hedge: 

• Sixth Phone Conversation: Obama Warns Putin "Costs" Will Increase; Kremlin Tells Obama To "Prevent Bloodshed".

• Copper Is On The Edge, Says BofA. (graph)

• Spot The "Recovering" European Periphery. (graph)

• Martin Armstrong "It's Not the Rich – It's The Total Cost Of Government That Is Killing The Economy".

• Blowback: Protesters In Kiev Demand Resignation Of Ukraine President.

• Behind The Fed's Monetary Curtain: Wizards? Or Scarecrows Who "Do An Awful Lot Of Talking".

• Baltic Dry Drops For 15th Day To Lowest In 9 Months (Back Below $1000). (graph)

• Chinese Yuan (And Copper) Tumbles As Money Supply Growth Plunges To 13-Year Lows. (graph)

ValueWalk:

• Ron Muhlenkamp’s Q1 Letter Highlights Emerging Market Slowdown. Most of the economic and market trends we’ve been discussing for the past few years remain in place. Russia’s action in the Ukraine / Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not.

Reuters:

• US Treasury's Sanctions Team Takes Aim at Russia.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9

Shanghai Securities News:

• China Faces Risk of 7% Growth Shortfall. China 1Q GDP growth may be about 7.3%, Li Ruoyu, a researcher with the State Information Center, writes in an article.

China Securities Journal:

• Cass Researcher Says 7% China Growth Acceptable. China can accept economic growth of about 7% and inflation of about 3%, Zhang Zhuoyuan, a researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says in an interview.

People's Daily:

• China Stimulus Not Needed , NDRC Researcher Says. China doesn't need a stimulus package to boost the economy at current growth levels, citing Wang Haifeng, a researcher under the National Development and Reform Commission, as saying. Full-year growth of even 6.5% should be tolerable to achieve economic restructuring, Wang said. The 7.5% annual growth target my be the "ceiling instead of the bottom line," Wang said. The real effects of traditional stimulus measures are weakening and may not be able to charge the economy as they have done in the past, Wang said.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 unch.

• FTSE-100 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (PBY)/.06

• (CMA)/.72

• (JNJ)/1.48

• (NTRS)/.78

• (KO)/.44

• (IBKR)/.29

• (LLTC)/.53

• (CSX)/.37

• (INTC)/.37

• (YHOO)/.36

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 8.0 versus 5.61 in March.

• The CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in February.

• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in February. 

9:00 am EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for February are estimated to rise to @22.5B versus $7.3B in January. 

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to rise to 50 versus a reading of 47 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• (UA) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yelling speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, China GDP/Industrial Production/Retail Sales reports, German ZEW index, weekly retail sales reports and the (ITC) Investor Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Oil Service/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.89 -.82%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.69 -.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.37 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.84 +1.34%

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +20.51%

• Total Put/Call .74 -37.29% 

• NYSE Arms .94 -39.29% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.68 -1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.98 -2.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 42.36 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 89.39 +1.14%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.74 +.46%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.90 +.54%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.

• TED Spread 19.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 227.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.0/Metric Tonne +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.60 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.90 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +155 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• EU Weighs Tougher Russian Sanctions Amid Ukraine Unrest. European officials weighed expanding sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, where they say the government in Moscow is stoking deadly separatist unrest with the same methods it used to destabilize and annex Crimea. European Union foreign ministers, meeting today in Luxembourg, said the bloc should be prepared to impose a third round of sanctions, including economic measures, as armed separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a deadline to free official buildings they’ve occupied. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied his nation is involved. 

• China Tightens Oversight of Trusts as Default Risk Rises. China’s banking regulator ordered owners of the nation’s 68 trust companies to be prepared to provide funding or sell their stakes as the risk of defaults rises in the $1.9 trillion industry for high-yield investment. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told trust companies to either restrict their businesses and reduce net assets or have shareholders replenish capital when the firms suffer losses, according to an April 8 notice that was seen by Bloomberg News. The regulator will also impose a “strict” approval process on trust firms’ entry into new businesses and products starting this year, according to the document.

• Emerging-Market Stocks Fall on EU Threat as Ruble Tumbles. Emerging-market stocks fell, following a four-week advance, as the European Union weighed expanding sanctions against Russia amid mounting tension in Ukraine. The ruble led declines among major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 0.4 percent to 1,011.61 at 1:45 p.m. in New York. Russia’s Micex index decreased to a two-week low, while the ruble extended this year’s slide to 8.6 percent. Ukraine’s bond yields climbed to a three-week high. Yuan forwards declined to the lowest level in eight months on concern growth is faltering. Brazil’s real led gains among 31 global currencies on speculation policy makers will keep raising interest rates to control inflation. 

• Europe Stocks Rise After Worst Week in Month; Miners Gain. European stocks pared earlier losses and rebounded from their worst week in a month, led by a rally in miners, while investors weighed violence in Ukraine. A gauge of basic-resources companies in the region climbed 1.9 percent, with Polymetal International Plc gaining 4.7 percent and Randgold Resources Ltd. adding 3.6 percent. ThromboGenics NV surged 17 percent after people familiar with the matter said Novartis AG and Shire Plc are among drugmakers weighing offers for the Belgian eye-medicine company. PSA Peugeot Citroen slid 6.3 percent after saying it will cut its model lineup by almost half. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3 percent to 329.79 at the close in London, paring earlier declines of as much as 1 percent. The gauge lost 3.1 percent last week. “The crisis in Ukraine is adding some volatility to the market, especially considering that there is a real economic risk if the situation escalates further,” Francois Savary, who helps oversee about $9.7 billion as chief investment officer at Reyl & Cie, said by phone from Geneva.

• Oil Climbs to Five-Week High on Ukraine-Russia Tension. WTI for May delivery gained 29 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $104.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached $104.55, the most since March 4. Volume was 21 percent higher than the 100-day average.

• Big Banks to Cut Tens of Thousands of Jobs: Cassidy. (video)

• GM(GM) Faces More Tests as Documents Show Culture of Denial. The hundreds of pages of documents released by lawmakers last week shed new light on General Motors Co. (GM)’s more than decade-long failure to respond to auto-safety complaints, underscoring the struggle ahead for Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra as she seeks to refocus on the company’s new fleet of cars.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Acting President: Not Opposed to Referendum on Regional Autonomy. Comments Come After Deadline for Protesters to Lay Down Weapons Passes.

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Nigeria Bomb Blast Kills At Least 71. Suspicion Falls on Militant Islamist Group. A rush-hour bomb blast on Monday at a bus station on the outskirts of Abuja killed at least 71 people, an attack that is likely to raise fresh concerns about security in the Nigerian capital as it prepares to play host to a meeting of leading international investors, entrepreneurs and politicians.

• As Growth Slows in India, Rural Workers Have Fewer Incentives to Move to Cities. Few Manufacturing Jobs and High Inflation, Combined With Rural Programs, Stall India's Urbanization.

CNBC:

• Traders expect gold to shine even brighter—here’s why.

• This is the market's 'new fear gauge': Art Cashin. (video)

• This will be 'the next sector to drop’: Trader. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Russian Fighter Jet Flies Repeatedly Within 1000 Yards Of US Warship In The Black Sea.

• When The Fed’s Refi Madness Ended, Bank Mortgage Profits Evaporated.

• US Pays Half Of Gazprom's Overdue Invoice With $1 Billion Ukraine Loan Guarantee.

• Flashing Red Warning: Q1 Earnings Growth Plunges To Lowest Since 2012.

• East Ukraine Braces For Military Operation As Ultimatum Passes: Full Ukraine Event Recap.

• Citi Mortgage Originations Drop To Record Low.

• Retail Sales Surge By Most In 18 Months Led By Spike In Auto Sales. (graph)

Business Insider:

•  Anxiety Spreads Through West Point As Military Combat Roles Are Being Slashed.

Financial Times:

• China engineers ‘Potemkin defaults’ to mask debt reality. Beijing wants market discipline without halting growth. The risks have ballooned as China has added new credit roughly equal to the size of the entire US banking system in just the past five years. Total debt as a percentage of GDP has increased from 130 per cent in 2008 to about 220 per cent at the end of last year, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings. An increase of that speed and scale has almost always been succeeded by a crisis in other economies.