Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead  by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Tuesday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on escalating Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, yen strength, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%

• DJIA 17,098.40 +.57%

• NASDAQ 4,580.27 +.92%

• Russell 2000 1,174.35 +1.21%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.10 +.71%

• Wilshire 5000 20,36 +.82%

• Russell 1000 Growth 935.68 +.67%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,007.92 +.91%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 463.79 +.61%

• Solactive US Cyclical 137.18 +.17%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 996.34 +.11%

• Transports 8,408.02 -.26%

• Utilities 564.37 +1.64%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.52 +2.08%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.11 +.45%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,178.42 +.17%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 972.98 -.11%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,044 +1.17%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 56 -202

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.84 +1.88%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 317,727 -1.78%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,550,253 +.51%

• Total Put/Call .95 +2.15%

• OEX Put/Call 3.31 +501.82%

• ISE Sentiment 91.0 -22.22%

• NYSE Arms .91 -22.88%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.98 +4.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.33 +18.90%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.97 +1.87%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.37 -3.63%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,425.48 -.16%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.595 Trillion +.42%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.738 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 51.9 +12.6%

• AAII % Bears 19.2 -18.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 292.75 +1.41%

• Crude Oil 95.96 +2.77%

• Reformulated Gasoline 262.29 +1.35%

• Natural Gas 4.07 +5.83%

• Heating Oil 286.01 +1.12%

• Gold 1,286.50 .41%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 205.05 -.18%

• Copper 316.05 -1.37%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.90 USD/Ton -2.44%

• Lumber 343.90 -2.52%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,280.80 -.57%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% -50 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1223 -4.52%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.78+.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +39.0 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.10 -8.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +2.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 82.75 +.51%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.74 -.67%

• Yield Curve 185.0 -6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% -6.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.372 Trillion +.02%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.83 -11.98%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 159.0 -1.88%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 30.63 -1.46%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 64.94 -4.15%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 218.64 +4.04%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.50 -3.96%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 330.40 -2.33%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 257.83 +11.85%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.95 -.22%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 21.25 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -5.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.95 -.07%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.21 -2.72%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 282.13 +.54%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 82.50 -1.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.794 Trillion -1.1%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,039.80 +1.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,750 -1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.10% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.0 +2.80%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.3 +.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,147 +4.65%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,106.69 -.66%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -16.67%

• Rail Freight Carloads 265,761 -1.69%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +3.9%

• HMOs +3.8%

• Oil Service +2.9%

• Gold & Silver +2.8%

• Disk Drives +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Social Media -.2% 

• Education -.7%

• Airlines -1.6%

• Steel -2.2%

• Gaming -2.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• TUBE, ITMN, KITE, RPRX, MOBL, BKW, BDSI, LTM, MIK, MPAA, DSW, CMTL, BRCD, TA, ARUN and SBSI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• PSEC, SLH, GCO, GES, TITN, WSM and SWHC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.43 +3.15%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.75 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.37 -1.39%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.82 +1.48%

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +1.11%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -21.54%

• NYSE Arms .93 -24.27% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.84 +.26%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.75 +.88%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.64 -.79%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.94 -.91%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 282.08 +1.51%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.94 +.06%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 21.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 185.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.90/Metric Tonne +.69%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.5 -.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BIG)/.30

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in June.
• The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in June. 

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for August is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 63.87 in July.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for August is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus 52.6 in July.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus a prior estimate of 79.2

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Retail/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.24 +3.90%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.77 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.49 +1.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.19 +2.88%

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -20.87%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +17.98%

• NYSE Arms 1.37 +40.38% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.60 +1.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.49 +1.0%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.98 +5.12%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.76 +.76%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 278.77 +2.67%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.77 -.22%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 21.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 183.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.30/Metric Tonne -1.02%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.90 +5.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.60 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long