Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, Fed rate hike concerns and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,985.54 -1.1%

• DJIA 16,987.50 -.87%

• NASDAQ 4,567.59 -.33%

• Russell 2000 1,160.61 -.81%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.92 -.64%

• Wilshire 5000 20,740.90 -1.08%

• Russell 1000 Growth 927.77 -.99%

• Russell 1000 Value 998.50 -1.22%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 461.97 -1.21%

• Solactive US Cyclical 136.49 -1.03%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 988.26 -.70%

• Transports 8,552.28 -.58%

• Utilities 549.64 -3.26%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 110.51 -.99%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.04 -3.34%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.58 -.17%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 973.89 -.19%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 230,501 -.49%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -209 +480

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 40.0 +33.33%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 299.982 -.85%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,553,516 -.37%

• Total Put/Call .88 -13.73%

• OEX Put/Call 1.42 -41.56%

• ISE Sentiment 121.0 +15.24%

• NYSE Arms .76 -19.14%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.31 +10.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.63 +5.39%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.74 +17.99%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.26 +13.44%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,373.69 -.20%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.593 Trillion +.25%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.305 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 40.4 -9.6%

• AAII % Bears 26.6 +11.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 281.90 -2.12%

• Crude Oil 91.05 -2.33%

• Reformulated Gasoline 249.75 -2.73%

• Natural Gas 3.85 -.85%

• Heating Oil 273.10 -2.96%

• Gold 1,227.70 -2.16%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 198.67 -2.85%

• Copper 307.90 -3.44%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.0 USD/Ton -1.91%

• Lumber 336.60 +.96%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,209.79 -4.10%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.7% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1058 +1.40%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.35 +.25%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.20 -1.7 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.40 -2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.90 +.5 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 84.25 -.10%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.19 +1.71%

• Yield Curve 205.0 +10.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.61% +15.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.380 Trillion +.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.34 -8.87%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 158.0 +1.64%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 27.81 +5.64%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 64.24 +3.42%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 218.89 +6.95%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.50 unch.

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 325.68 +3.56%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 238.16 +4.31%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 308.91 +.89%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 22.5 +1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +2.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +5.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.50 +3.86%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.79 +5.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 252.22 +11.66%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 82.50 +.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.828 Trillion +.98%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,050.80 +.30%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 304,000 +1,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.12% +2 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 327.20 -7.23%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.5 -1.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.90% +60.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.41/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,186 +2.68%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,114.51 -.62%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -20.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 239,142 -12.55%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +5.2%

• I-Banks +4.1%

• Disk Drives +2.1%

• Banks +1.2%

• Networking +.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Tankers -3.1% 

• Construction -3.2%

• Utilities -3.3%

• Energy -4.1%

• REITs -5.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)

• FLXN, BNNY, LE, MGAM, BKYF, CNVR, SSNI, CMRX, JDSU, NPSP, XPO, AVID, ULTA, PANW, TAM, RYI, BDBD, MTN, VRA, FXCM, CVGW, HQY, YHOO, WMS, LOGM and TITN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (17)

• DEI, CNSI, PF, HPTX, EQY, MW, RWT, WRLD, HCN, LDOS, PAG, SHOS, MBUU, PBY, BRC, GTAT and EOPN

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Fed Rate Hike Concerns, REIT/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.14 +10.47%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.07 +.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.27 +2.83%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.89 +10.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +20.59%

• Total Put/Call .86 -14.0%

• NYSE Arms .67 +6.25% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.17 +1.89%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.50 -.69%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.71 -3.77%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.24 +.95%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 248.19 +1.95%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 308.91 +1.19%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 22.50 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 205.0 +7.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $82.0/Metric Tonne +.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.20 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.90 -1.2 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -22 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Russia Weighs Response as U.S. and EU Add More Sanctions. Russia threatened retaliation against a U.S. and European Union decision to stiffen sanctions, saying the move to expand penalties undermines the peace process in Ukraine. Russia will react “calmly, appropriately” to the EU sanctions, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told state TV in an interview. The EU added 15 companies, including OAO Gazprom Neft, OAO Rosneft and OAO Transneft, and 24 people to the list of those affected by its sanctions against Russia. The U.S. will also “deepen and broaden” its measures against Russia’s financial, energy and defense industries, President Barack Obama said yesterday.
• Scottish Independence Race Tightens Again in ICM Poll. Scotland’s nationalists were narrowly behind the Better Together campaign in an ICM poll six days before the independence ballot, with the Yes vote on 49 percent and No on 51 percent after excluding undecided voters. The monthly poll of 1,000 people for the Guardian newspaper today has an error margin of about 3 percentage points, meaning the race for the Sept. 18 referendum is too close to call.
• U.S. Widens Sanctions on Russia Banks, Energy, Defense. (video) The U.S. expanded sanctions against Russia to include the country’s largest bank, OAO Sberbank, energy companies as well as five state-owned defense and technology companies. “Russia’s economic and diplomatic isolation will continue to grow as long as its actions do not live up to its words,” Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said in a statement. “Russia’s economy is already paying a heavy price for its unlawful behavior.” 
• Congressional Leaders Back Syria Action Amid Calls for More. U.S. House and Senate leaders are backing President Barack Obama’s call to train and equip Syrian rebels even as Republicans’ demand for a broader offensive to defeat Islamic State extremists may delay congressional action.
• Ukraine Rebels Need NATO Veto to End War: Ex-Putin Envoy. Ukraine needs to give its regions veto power over future membership in NATO and the European Union to finally end the uprising by pro-Russian separatists in the east, a former envoy of President Vladimir Putin said. The easternmost Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where Russian is the main language, should also be granted greater control over their security forces, similar to the devolution of power in the Balkans after the breakup of Yugoslavia, as well as their finances, Vladimir Lukin said in an interview in Moscow.
• Ibovespa Falls Most in World as Silva Tied With Rousseff in Poll. The Ibovespa (IBOV) led world losses after a voter poll showed opposition candidate Marina Silva tied with President Dilma Rousseff in a second round of October’s election in Brazil. State-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA slid amid reduced prospects for a change in government. Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA fell to a two-month low as Citigroup Inc. cut its earnings estimates for the steelmaker. The Ibovespa slumped 1.4 percent to 57,499.70 at 10:09 a.m. in Sao Paulo, extending its weekly drop to 5.3 percent. 
• Europe Stocks Post First Weekly Loss in More Than a Month. European stocks were unchanged, after swinging between gains and losses, as a jump in U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence boosted optimism about the world’s largest economy while raising concern interest rates may go up soon. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was unchanged at 344.27 at the close of trading, after earlier rising as much as 0.3 percent and falling as much as 0.2 percent.
• Junk-Bond Offerings Struggle as Buyers Return to Fleeing. Junk-bond buyers have indigestion again. Speculative-grade borrowers from Jupiter Resources Ltd., an energy firm backed by Apollo Global Management LLC, to AK Steel Holding Corp. had to sweeten terms yesterday to sell at least $8.7 billion of debt. The offerings struggled as investors pulled $766 million from funds that buy the bonds in the past week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Justice Sotomayor: Americans Should be Alarmed by Spread of Drones.

CNBC:

• This commodity might be signaling a selloff: Pro. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid! (graph)
• S&P Slips To 4-Week Lows, Russell Red For 2014 As Rate Hike Fears Trigger Selling. (graph)
• Harsh Austerity Sends Italian, Spanish Debt To Record Highs. (graph)
• China Daily: "Western Sanctions Will Make Moscow Back The Chinese Yuan Against The Dollar".
• BofA Warns "Risk Of Selloff" After September's FOMC.
• Retail Sales "Ex-Autos" Growth Slowest Since January. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Apple(AAPL) Says It Got Record Preorders For The iPhone 6.
• Putin's Ukraine Adventure Is Tanking The Entire Russian Economy.
• Australia Raises Terror Threat Level To 'High' For The First Time In History.

Marc to Market:

• Great Graphic: Australian Dollar and Iron Ore Prices. (graph)

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.51%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -3.03% 2) Homebuilders -2.41% 3) Utilities -1.81%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• XCRA, HCN, CBPX, SMLP, DDR, FPL, SDRL, MMLP, RIG, ESV, LDL, OHI, RJUS, SDLP, NE, AKRX, SBUX, DRI, SBRA, MAC, TLLP, MDVN, VTR, SLCA, REX, MPW, RPRX, EOPN and RKUS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KRE 2) CME 3) VLO 4) EWT 5) OIH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CREE 2) REGN 3) MRK 4) SPG 5) SWFT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.70%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +.52% 2) Banks +.27% 3) Internet -.05%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TNET, CNVR, ULTA, VNET, XPO, IPI and NDLS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ULTA 2) ACAD 3) TAP 4) AVNR 5) ACT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BID 2) ECN 3) LULU 4) YHOO 5) SCTY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume