Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 16.88 +7.89%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.96 -.56%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.84 +.26%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.04 +7.04%
- ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -43.17%
- Total Put/Call .89 -8.25%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.07 +1.94%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.43 +4.81%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.07 -.48%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.61 -1.94%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 262.60 +1.42%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 319.36 n/a
- 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 -1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 184.0 -5.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $77.50/Metric Tonne n/a
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.90 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.30 -4.1 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -183 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/medical/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Islamic State Enters Kobani Amid Street Fight With Kurds. Islamic State militants pushed further into Kobani on Syria’s border
with Turkey and battled Kurdish fighters inside the town, as the
U.S.-led coalition stepped up airstrikes in the region. About
2,000 militants entered Kobani late yesterday, Turkey’s Anadolu news
agency said. The Kurdish agency Firat reported fierce clashes in eastern
and southern districts. Airstrikes late yesterday and today against the
group’s positions “were effective and have slowed their advance,”
Ibrahim Kurdo, a local official, said by phone, describing the Kurdish
position as “better than it was two days ago.”
- IMF Cuts Global Outlook as Risk of ‘Frothy’ Stocks Raised.
The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth in
2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions and a
financial-market correction as stocks reach “frothy” levels. The
world economy will grow 3.8 percent next year, compared with a July
forecast for 4 percent, after a 3.3 percent expansion this year, the Washington-based IMF said. U.S.
growth is helping lead a worldwide acceleration that’s weaker than the
fund predicted 2 1/2 months ago as the outlooks for the euro area,
Brazil, Russia and Japan deteriorate. “In advanced economies, the legacies of the precrisis boom and the subsequent crisis, including high private and public debt, still cast a shadow on the recovery,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic
Outlook. “Emerging markets are adjusting to rates of economic growth
lower than those reached in the precrisis boom and the postcrisis
recovery.” “Downside risks related to an equity price correction in 2014 have also
risen, consistent with the notion that some valuations could be frothy,”
the lender said without naming specific markets.
- Japan Lawmakers Flag Need for Exit Strategy as Yen Falls. Japanese lawmakers are flagging the
need for discussion of an exit strategy to a monetary policy
program that’s driving the yen lower and hurting parts of the
economy. “It could be important to get involved in this issue and
the government should thoroughly examine it,” lawmaker
Toshihiro Nikai said after a meeting of the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party’s general council. An exit strategy should be
considered was an opinion that came up at the council meeting,
Nikai said.
- German Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009 in August.
German industrial production (GRIPIMOM) fell more than economists
forecast in August in the latest sign that the outlook for Europe’s
largest economy is deteriorating. Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped 4 percent from July, when it
expanded 1.6 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s
the biggest decline since January 2009 and compares with a median
estimate of 1.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey.
- Russia Spends Up to $1.75 Billion in Two Days to Buoy Ruble. Russia’s
central bank spent as much as $1.75 billion to prop up the ruble over
the last two trading days, its biggest market intervention since
President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine in March. Russia’s
central bank spent the equivalent of $980 million to shore up the ruble
on Oct. 3, the latest data on the authority’s website showed today. The
bank also said it shifted the upper boundary of the currency’s trading
band by 10 kopeks yesterday, a move that may have involved spending
between $420 million and $769 million that day. The exchange rate
weakened 0.3 percent to 44.6234 versus the basket by 5:12 p.m. in
Moscow, set for a record low for the fourth time this month.
- Spain Hunts for Anyone Who Had Contact With Ebola-Stricken Nurse. Spain
is urgently compiling a list of people who had contact with the nurse
who became the first case of an Ebola infection outside Africa when she
was diagnosed in Madrid yesterday. The government is taking action
to keep doctors and staff safe at Hospital Carlos III, and is
investigating how the woman became infected, Health Minister Ana Mato
said at a news conference yesterday. The nurse treated Manuel Garcia, a
priest who died of Ebola last month, at the hospital. Her husband and
thirty medical workers are being monitored, officials said.
- Euro-Area Bonds Drop as Investors Question ECB Response to Slump. Euro-area
government bonds declined on investor concern the European Central Bank
will fail to revive the region’s faltering economy, curbing demand for
assets across the currency bloc. A gauge of price-growth
expectations in the euro region dropped to the least on record even as a
German official said the government doesn’t see a deflation risk.
Benchmark 10-year bund yields earlier approached an all-time low as data
showing industrial production dropped the most since 2009 in August
boosted speculation the outlook for Europe’s largest economy is
deteriorating. Spain sold index-linked debt due in November 2019
via banks today.
- European Stocks Decline as German Output Data Disappoint.
European stocks slid to a seven-week low as a report showed German
industrial production contracted the most in more than five years, and
the International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth.
Travel and health-care companies led declines on the Stoxx Europe 600
Index. Schroders (SDR) Plc lost 2.3 percent after Bank of America
Corp.recommended investors sell shares of the asset
manager. Rio Tinto Group gained after saying it rejected a
merger offer from Glencore Plc. The Stoxx 600 fell 1.5 percent to 330.85 at the close of
trading, extending losses after the IMF release.
- Oil Plunge Magnifies Russia’s Sanctions Pain: Chart of the Day. Oil
prices that have plunged to a 27-month low are inflicting damage on a
Russian economy already contending with escalating sanctions from the
U.S. and European Union over its role in Ukraine. The CHART OF THE
DAY shows how an average oil price of $90 a barrel, close to where
prices are now, would give Russia a budget deficit of 1.2 percent of
gross domestic product next year,
according to Sberbank CIB, the investment bank of Russia’s biggest
lender.
- Copper Falls Amid Concern European Demand Is Set to Slow.
Copper in London capped the first
loss in three sessions as industrial production dropped in Germany, the world’s third-biggest consumer of the metal. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.6 percent to
settle at $6,670 a metric ton ($3.03 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on
the LME. The metal lost 9.4 percent this year on concern that
demand is slowing in China, the biggest user.
- Several Dozen U.S. Troops to Have Contact Testing Ebola.
A few dozen U.S. troops will have direct exposure to potential Ebola
patients by running testing labs in Liberia, the head of U.S. Africa
Command said for the
first time today.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -1.91% 2) Drugs -1.61% 3) Networking -1.43%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BBEP, SODA, TCS, XOOM, RIO, AGCO, BURL, LRN, WPPGY, TOT, QRE, CUK, SOXX, GEOS, IDT, OSK, RCL, MRKT, CMI, EZCH, LVNTA, TARO, BERY, SYT, AEGN, EMES, IPI, CCL, BBY and URI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) MDR 2) HTZ 3) RCL 4) CCL 5) YUM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GM 2) AGCO 3) F 4) CCL 5) CLF
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Oil Service +1.74% 2) Hospitals +.90% 3) Steel +.89%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- LAKE, CAMP, CMRX, GMCR, PBR and DO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) OCN 2) RICE 3) TRN 4) SE 5) ABT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) AMXL 2) VALE 3) GMCR 4) SIMO 5) PSMT
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Stagflation Risk Seen Holding Back BOJ on Yen Drop: Japan Credit. Bank
of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda faces resistance to faster monetary
easing as politicians and businessmen lament the waning buying power of
the yen. The yen’s effective exchange rate against a basket of
currencies was at 77.2 at the end of August, lower than its 10-year
average of 92.93 and near a more than two-decade low of
74.91 reached in January. Its nominal rate broke above 110 per
dollar last week for the first time since 2008.
- North and South Korea Navies Trade Warning Fire Near Border. Naval
boats of North Korea and South Korea exchanged warning fire near their
disputed sea border in the Yellow Sea, days after high-ranking officials
from both countries agreed to seek better relations. South Korea’s navy fired warning shots at a North Korean
patrol boat that crossed the Northern Limit Line that serves as
the de facto maritime border between the two countries, South
Korea’s defense ministry said today. Both sides exchanged fire
before the North Korean boat retreated to its own territorial
waters. No casualties or damage were inflicted on the South’s
navy, which fired about 90 shots in total, the ministry said.
- RBA Holds Rates at Record Low to Spur Growth in Slowing Economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at a record
low to spur hiring in an economy struggling to expand outside the
property market. The overnight cash rate target was held at 2.5
percent for a 14th month, Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement
today following an RBA board meeting in Sydney. The decision was
predicted by all 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and markets
had priced in almost no chance of a move.
- China Removes Phantom Staff, Government Vehicles to Cut Spending. The Chinese government removed staff who receive salaries without
working and cut government car use amid an austerity drive by President
Xi Jinping. A total of 162,629 so-called “phantom employees”
have been cleared out of central and provincial governments,
state-controlled financial companies and universities as of Sept. 25,
the official People’s Daily reported yesterday. The country also
disposed of 114,418 vehicles, about 95 percent of a planned cut, it said
in a separate report.
- Pockets of Hong Kong Protesters May Defy Student Leaders. With
Hong Kong’s student-led protests dwindling and rally leaders in talks
to end their 12-day campaign, a small number of demonstrators are
threatening to ignore any call to abandon their posts. Pro-democracy protesters
still on the streets of central Hong Kong increasingly don’t answer to
the leaders from various student groups. As people drift back to school
and jobs, those who remain pose a challenge to police under pressure to
remove blockades and open roadways.
- Samsung Earnings Slump as Galaxy Smartphones Struggle. Samsung
Electronics Co. (005930) posted its biggest drop in quarterly profit
since at least 2009 as the world’s largest smartphone maker loses ground
to Apple Inc. and Chinese
competitors. Operating profit fell 60 percent to 4.1 trillion
won ($3.8 billion) in the three months ended September from a year
earlier, the Suwon, South Korea-based company said in a regulatory
filing today. The shares rose on expectations fourth-quarter earnings
will improve on new devices.
- Hockey Says Falling Commodity Prices to Hurt Australia’s Budget. Falling
commodity prices will hurt
Australian government efforts to rein in its budget deficit, spurring
possible new savings measures, according to Treasurer Joe Hockey. “Lower commodity prices in iron ore and coal are going to have an impact on our budget bottom line,” Hockey said in an
interview in New York yesterday. “There are many variables at
play but there will be a negative impact.”
- Asian Stocks Advance Second Day as Rio Tinto Advances.
Asian stocks headed for a two-day gain as information-technology and
materials companies advanced, with Rio Tinto Group surging amid optimism
for a merger with Glencore Plc. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.2 percent to 139.43 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo before markets open in Hong Kong.
- Cotton Glut Eroding Cost for Gap Jeans as China Buys Less. Cotton inventories in the U.S., the
world’s top exporter, are heading for the biggest increase since
1986 as growers across the South store more crops that, for
some, are worth less than they cost to produce.
Wall Street Journal:
- Islamic State Battles Kurdish Fighters in Syrian Border City for First Time. Black Flag Is Raised as Fears Grow of Imminent Fall of City to Extremist Group. Islamic State militants waged fierce battles with Kurdish fighters on
the outskirts of Kobani, raising fears the Syrian city would fall to
the extremist group despite U.S.-led airstrikes aimed at halting the
latest advance. Islamic State has captured more than 300 Syrian
Kurdish villages around the city, also known as Ayn al-Arab, over the
past three weeks. But Monday was the first time the group entered the
outskirts of the...
- Hong Kong Pops the China Bubble. The protesters know that what’s hailed in the West as ‘the China dream’ is a hoax. Whatever comes next with the demonstrations in Hong Kong, they’ve
already performed a historic service. To wit, they remind us of the
silliness of the China infatuation so prevalent among pundits and
intellectuals who don’t live in China.
Fox News:
- Biden comment shakes US-Arab alliance against ISIS. This
time, Joe Biden’s gaffes are causing an international fracas. The vice
president has apologized twice now for suggesting last week
that key U.S. allies inflamed the situation in Syria by sending arms and
money to extremists opposed to Bashar Assad. The fallout over Biden’s remarks is perhaps unprecedented – his
verbal miscues typically cause headaches for the White House, but
otherwise are diplomatically harmless.
CNBC:
- Party's coming to a close for high-debt companies. Companies that have used cheap money to load up on debt and boost
earnings have been the market darlings for the past two years, but it's a
trade that is getting old. With tightening conditions—particularly a rising
dollar and upward pressure on interest rates—companies with weak,
high-debt balance sheets would be the big losers as that trend plays
itself out.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- White House urges U.S. regulators to rein in Wall Street risk-taking. U.S.
President Barack Obama is urging the country's top financial market
regulators to find additional ways to "prevent excessive risk-taking
across the financial system," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said
on Monday. Obama spoke about his concerns in a closed-door meeting
convened earlier with the heads of regulators at the Federal Reserve,
Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau,
among others.
Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goa
Telegraph:
Nikkei:
- Japan Needs Sales Tax Increase, Economist Ito Says. The planned increase to 10% from 8% next October is necessary to reduce the nation's fiscal deficit, economic professor Takatoshi Ito said in a speech in New York. Ito advocates >10% rate, warning of potential fiscal crisis.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.0 new series.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.0 -2.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- JOLTS Job Openings for August are estimated to rise to 4700 versus 4673 in July.
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October is estimated to fall to 45.1 versus 45.2 in September.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for August is estimated to fall to $20.0B versus $26.0B in July.
Upcoming Splits
- (PHX) 2-for-1
- (APH) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Dudley speaking, HSBC China Services
PMI, UK industrial production/gdp data, $27B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly
US retail sales reports, (CDE) investor day, (VRA) analyst day and the
(ACN) analyst conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 15.09 +3.71%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.65 +.13%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.80 -.13%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.74 +4.25%
- ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +81.0%
- Total Put/Call 1.01 +10.99%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.45 +15.19%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.38 +8.28%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.20 +2.76%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.84 -1.52%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 260.29 -6.63%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 319.36 n/a
- 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 189.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $77.50/Metric Tonne n/a
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.20 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.20 +.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
