Sunday, March 08, 2015

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greek Tensions Revived as Creditors Reject Reform List. Greece’s provisional agreement with creditors to avert a default started to crack as European officials said the country’s latest proposals fell far short of what was tabled two weeks ago and Greek ministers floated the prospect of a referendum if their reforms are rejected. The list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors such as tourists, is “far” from complete and the country probably won’t receive an aid disbursement this month, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday.  
  • Greece Mulls Referendum as No Deal With Lenders in Sight. Greece’s anti-austerity coalition is considering calling a referendum on government policy as euro-area finance ministers are set to withhold further aid payments at a meeting in Brussels tomorrow. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said he doesn’t expect the Eurogroup to make any decisions on Greece on Monday. Reform proposals must first be approved by the Greek parliament and then implemented before the next bailout disbursement is made, Dombrovskis said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
  • China Overtakes North Korea as Japan’s Top Security Concern. Japanese people are more concerned about China’s military strength and assertiveness in Asia than any other security issue, according to a public opinion poll released by the government at the weekend. More than 60 percent of respondents to the survey conducted in January said China concerned them, compared with 46 percent in a similar poll three years earlier. The number worried about North Korea fell to about 53 percent from around 65 percent.  
  • China Defaults Seen in Private Bonds as Real Yields Surge. A forklift maker, a leather producer and a textiles company have missed payments on privately sold bonds in China this year, as the central bank’s failure to cut borrowing costs in line with slowing inflation wrecks profits. HSBC Holdings Plc is forecasting more defaults after consumer price increases in the world’s second-biggest economy cooled to 0.8 percent in January, the slowest since 2009. Rates on the benchmark one-year lending rate after accounting for living costs rose to a five-year high at 4.59 percent. Prices received by manufacturers dropped 4.3 percent last month, matching January’s decline that was the biggest since 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey before data due tomorrow.
  • Tesla(TSLA) Cuts Jobs in China; Sales Are Slow on Car Charging Concerns. Tesla Motors Inc., the electric-car maker led by billionaire Elon Musk, said it’s cutting jobs in China after a local newspaper reported the company will reduce staff by 30 percent. Tesla will eliminate some positions as it makes structural changes to its business in China, Gary Tao, a local spokesman for the carmaker, said Monday by phone. He said he didn’t know how many jobs will be affected. The Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported earlier Tesla will eliminate 180 of the 600 positions at its China unit because sales haven’t met expectations. 
  • Russian Court Charges Five in Connection With Nemtsov Murder. A Russian court indicted five men on Sunday in connection with the murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, little more than a week after his death sparked protests and brought condemnation from world leaders. The men, from the country’s predominantly Muslim North Caucasus, were charged in Moscow a day after being arrested, the Interfax news service reported, citing Judge Natalya Mushnikova. One of the accused, Zaur Dadaev, admitted a role in the murder, Interfax said.
  • Japan’s Emergence From Recession Weaker Than First Thought. Japan’s emergence from recession was weaker than estimated as companies unexpectedly cut investment and drew down inventories, offsetting a pickup in consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 1.5 percent in the three months through December from the previous quarter, less than a preliminary 2.2 percent, revised government data show. The rebound followed a contraction caused by an increase in the sales tax last April.
  • China’s Stocks Fall to Three-Week Low as Brokerages Slump. China’s stocks fell to a three-week low amid concern new share sales will divert funds from existing equities and as securities firms tumbled after regulators said they may allow banks to conduct brokerage businesses. Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. retreated more than 3 percent after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it’s considering allowing banks to apply for brokerage licenses. Jiangxi Copper Co. dropped 2.6 percent to pace declines for commodity shares as a steeper-than-forecast drop in imports signaled weak demand. The Shanghai Composite Index fell for a third day, losing 1 percent to 3,209.22 as of 9:45 a.m.
  • Asian Stocks, Bonds Pace U.S. Rout on Payrolls; Oil Slips. Asian stocks and bonds fell, tracking a selloff in the U.S., after American jobs data spurred traders to bring forward bets on higher interest rates and Japanese growth was revised down. The dollar held gains, while oil and copper slipped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.8 percent by 10:52 a.m. in Tokyo, extending last week’s drop as Japan’s Topix index slipped from a seven-year high.
  • Iron Ore Majors Raising Supply as Surplus, China Sink Prices. Global iron ore supplies are set to expand further as the world’s biggest producers press on with capacity expansions, raising shipments of the steel-making raw material into a market facing a record surplus and sinking prices. Net supplies will increase about 60 million to 75 million metric tons in 2015, in line with a 75 million ton rise in 2014, as mine expansions in Australia and Brazil more than offset closures in China, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Morgan Stanley predicts a net rise of 63 million tons this year, with production expected to peak in September to October. 
  • China’s Scrap Copper Imports Seen Lingering Near 10-Year Low. China’s imports of scrap copper, the feedstock for one-third of the country’s production of the metal, are unlikely to rebound from a 10-year low as U.S. supplies remain tight, according to the world’s largest listed metals and electronics recycler. Industries that provide the bulk of recycled material in the U.S., the biggest exporter of scrap metal to China, have not yet recovered sufficiently to improve supply, Michael Lion, chairman of Sims Metal Management Asia Ltd., said in a March 6 interview in Hong Kong.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • The Clinton Foundation and Haiti Contracts. After the earthquake in 2010, the Clintons’ outsize influence in the small nation increased. The Clinton Foundation lists the Brazilian construction firm OAS and the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB) as donors that have given it between $1 million and $5 million. Those relationships are worth learning more about. OAS has been in the news because it is caught up in a corruption scandal centered on Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras. In November Brazilian police arrested three top OAS executives for their alleged roles in a bribery scheme involving inflated contracts
Fox News:
  • McConnell vows no debt default as deadline nears. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday that the Republican-controlled Congress won’t allow the government to default as the Treasury Department quickly approaches its so-called “debt ceiling.” “I made it clear after November that we won’t shut down the government or default on debt,” the Kentucky Republican told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:.
Reuters:
  • Exports jump in China, but slide in imports signals economic weakness. China's exports picked up in the first two months of 2015, propelled by February's exceptionally strong performance that was inflated by the timing of Lunar New Year, while a slide in imports pointed to persistent weakness in the economy. China's imports tumbled 20.2 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, signalling stubborn weakness in the world's second-largest economy that may require more policy support, analysts say. Imports inched up 0.4 percent in 2014. "The sharp decline in imports highlights slackening domestic demand, so we expect the government to take more policy measures to stabilise economic growth," Nie said. A 20.5 percent slide in February imports was the sharpest since the global financial crisis.
Telegraph: 
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.5 +2.5 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (URBN)/.57
  • (UNFI)/.67
  • (IDT)/.40
  • (KFY)/.46
  • (CASY)/.83
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (ROL) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, German Trade balance, Labor Market Conditions Index for February, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom conference, (MCD) Feb comps, (AAPL) watch media event and the (QCOM) annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike fears,
global growth worries, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday, March 06, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,071.26 -1.58%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,071.26 -1.58%
  • DJIA 17,856.78 -1.52%
  • NASDAQ 4,927.37 -.73%
  • Russell 2000 1,217.52 -1.29%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 34.49 -1.57% 
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 136.72 -.83% 
  • Wilshire 5000 21,643.89 -1.48%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 994.21 -1.30%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,012.85 -1.74%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 500.41 -2.61%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 139.76 -2.01%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,036.06 -1.70%
  • Transports 8,907.41 -1.30%
  • Utilities 570.03 -4.06%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 113.74 +.91%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.80 -2.22%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,200.61 +.08%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 991.73 +.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 237,538 -.11%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -16 -205
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.47 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 262,289 -2.80%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,687,908 -.44%
  • Total Put/Call 1.28 +29.29%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.82 +37.88%
  • ISE Sentiment 41.0 -64.04%
  • NYSE Arms .80 -35.25%
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.22 +15.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.76 +.21%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.69 +6.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.38 +4.74%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,900.62 +.28%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.672 Trillion -.69%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.072 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 39.8 -12.3%
  • AAII % Bears 23.4 +15.1%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 220.14 -1.76%
  • Crude Oil 49.71 +.28%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 188.02 -4.85%
  • Natural Gas 2.85 +4.83%
  • Heating Oil 186.84 -14.42%
  • Gold 1,165.50 -3.97%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 169.69 -.49%
  • Copper 260.95 -3.69%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 59.49 USD/Ton -4.91%
  • Lumber 281.80 -4.93%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,135.88 -3.20%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.6% -10 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1379 -5.75%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.21 +.11%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.5 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.30 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 +1.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 48.0% chance of no change, 52.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/18
  • US Dollar Index 97.70 +2.53%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.77 -2.18%
  • Yield Curve 152.0 +15.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.24% +25.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.449 Trillion +.03%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.54 +.24%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 +.23%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.50 -4.51%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.99 +3.87%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 350.10 -.09%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.50 +.35%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 336.56 +.29%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 453.84 -5.35%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 -.22%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% unch.
  • TED Spread 25.75 +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.50 unch.
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 691.0 +6.0%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.45 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 390.28 +3.96%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 85.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.990 Trillion +.13%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 998.60 -2.70%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 304,750 +10,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.75% -5 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 420.70 +.10%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.5 +.8 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.46/gallon +.09/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 561.0 +3.90%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,064.23 -1.11%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 241,598 +13.1%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -1.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Hospitals +2.7%
  • Alt Energy +1.6%
  • Biotech +1.5%
  • Banks +1.0%
  • I-Banks +.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Computer Hardware -4.5% 
  • Energy -4.5%
  • Steel -7.4%
  • Coal -10.9%
  • Gold & Silver -12.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (37)
  • EYES, OHRP, VSLR, PEIX, LEAF, OMER, DVAX, HRTX, DGI, CLDN, W, PCYC, AIRM, DTSI, KYTH, BIO, FIX, MVNR, MNST, INSM, AEO, FSL, AMBA, PMC, FCB, TNDM, NTRI, HZNP, MEI, IBP, ARUN, HPTX, XENT, HRTG, TSE, WMC and SWHC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (37)
  • INSY, NRF, CALD, TRK, SCMP, HTGC, PRAA, SPLK, GSIG, SQBK, SMTC, AMED, EVDY, TNET, IM, JOY, CECE, GEF, AAC, WMAR, PEGA, TPC, NSR, PCRX, BOBE, ANF, CENX, CORE, PRIM, CALA, VEEV, CDI, EGL, TUBE, OPWR, LL and ENOC
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Fed Rate Hike Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Worries, Homebuilding/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.59 +11.04%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.91 -1.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.38 +2.57%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.37 +6.41%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 59.0 +63.9%
  • Total Put/Call 1.22 +28.42%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -41.04% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.77 +2.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 690.0 +.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.44 +3.27%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.39 -5.14%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.01 +1.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 389.84 +1.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 152.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.49/Metric Tonne -.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.50 +7.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -130 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Greece Gears Up for Euro-Area Talks as Cash Crunch Looms. Greece’s creditors are assessing proposals including hiring non-professional inspectors to clamp down on tax evasion as the government attempts to unlock bailout funds necessary to keep the country afloat. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s administration sent a set of commitments Friday to Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of his euro-area counterparts, in the hope that the policy proposals will pave the way for the disbursement of aid.
  • Greek Loan Payout Hinges on Review of Reforms, EU Says. The institutions overseeing the Greek bailout program will need to scrutinize the probable impact of the government’s latest reform proposals before the country can receive another loan payout, a senior EU official said. The European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- together formerly known as the troika -- must assess the overall balance of the measures proposed by the government in Athens and this will not happen before euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels on March 9.  
  • Putin Cuts His Salary 10% as Russian Living Standards Decline. Russian President Vladimir Putin cut his salary, and that of his prime minister and other government employees, by 10 percent as the economy slides into the first recession in five years, eroding citizens’ living standards. Putin, 62, ordered the wage reductions from May 1 to the end of the year, according to decrees posted Friday on the government website. Putin increased his and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s salaries by 165 percent in April last year. The president declared income of 3.7 million rubles ($60,000) in 2013, and Medvedev 4.3 million rubles. 
  • Putin Takes a Pay Cut as Approval Rating Rises to 85%. (video)
  • China Said to Slash Senior Executive Pay at Top Banks, SOEs. China cut pay for top executives at its biggest banks and some other state-owned companies as part of efforts to combat inequality, said people with knowledge of the matter. Senior managers at the nation’s five largest lenders -- all of which are government-controlled -- had their total compensation for this year cut to no more than about 600,000 yuan ($95,800), said the people, who asked not to be named discussing private information. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Jiang Jianqing earned about 2 million yuan in 2013.
  • Dollar Climbs Most Since 2011 as Job Gains Fuel Fed Speculation. The dollar rallied the most in more than three years after a report showing strength in the U.S. labor market bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as global peers embrace monetary stimulus. The greenback rose against most major counterparts as U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 2008. Traders boosted wagers on a rate rise by September. While the Fed has said it will be “patient” on increasing borrowing costs, Chair Janet Yellen said last week timing will depend on economic data. 
  • Emerging Currencies Weaken, Stocks Decline on U.S. Rate Concern. Emerging-market currencies weakened for a seventh day and stocks slid as a bigger-than-forecast increase in U.S. payrolls stoked speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner, damping demand for riskier assets. A gauge tracking 20 developing-country currencies slid 0.7 percent to a record low as Brazil’s real dropped 1.8 percent to the lowest level since 2004 and peers in South Africa and Mexico lost at least 1.6 percent. Emerging-market stocks headed for a three-week low.
  • European Stocks Little Changed as Investors Weigh U.S. Jobs Data. European stocks were little changed at a seven-year high as investors considered whether a strengthening U.S. economy will bring forward a rate-increase decision. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent to 394.18 at the close of trading. The benchmark gauge jumped as much as 0.7 percent after data showed U.S. payrolls rose more than estimated in February, before paring gains.
  • Oil Rigs Get Slammed for the 13th Week. (video) The number of U.S. oil rigs out drilling new wells fell for the 13th straight week as the U.S. sinks deeper in a glut of excess oil. Drillers idled 64 oil rigs (excluding gas rigs), dropping the number to 922, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. The rig count is down 43 percent since October, an unprecedented retreat. The median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 20 #RigCountGuesses on Twitter was for a decline of 20 rigs.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC: 
  • Fed should not be too patient on rate hikes, Williams says. Federal Reserve policymakers should not wait too long to raise interest rates, a top U.S. central banker said on Thursday, because doing so could mean "drastically" overshooting on inflation and forcing the Fed to hike rates dramatically. "I think that by mid-year it will be the time to have a serious discussion about starting to raise rates," San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Oil falls as dollar spikes on US jobs data and rate hike fears. Oil fell on Friday as the dollar surged on bets of a near-term rate hike from strong U.S. jobs growth, offsetting an early run up in crude prices on worries about Libyan and Iraq supplies. A stronger dollar makes oil, quoted and traded in the greenback, costlier for holders of the euro and other currencies. The dollar rocketed to 11-/12 year highs against a basket of currencies after the U.S. government reported the U.S. jobless rate fell to 6-1/2 year lows. Benchmark Brent oil was down 44 cents at $60.04 a barrel by 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT). U.S. light crude fell 71 cents at $50.05.