Sunday, June 14, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     
  • Greece’s Last-Ditch Talks Aim at Agreement Before Monday. Greece and its creditors are locked in last-ditch talks, with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker trying to broker a deal over the weekend. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent a delegation to Brussels Saturday with a new set of proposals to close differences on pensions, taxes and a primary surplus target. With positions hardening on all sides, the talks are Juncker’s last attempt to try to bring the sides to a compromise, according to a European Union official, who asked not to be identified. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Stability Mechanism are waiting in the wings to join the discussions if progress is made between Greece’s envoy and Juncker’s chief of staff and the aim is to reach an accord before markets open on Monday, according to the official. Both sides are prepared to continue talks on Sunday.
  • Tsipras Sends Plans to Brussels as EU Warns Greece on Brink. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent a delegation to Brussels with a new set of proposals for Greece's creditors following a barrage of demands to get serious about making concessions or assume responsibility for a default. With markets closed, the negotiators on Saturday are meeting with officials from the trio of lenders withholding money unless their demands are met. The aim is to narrow differences on pension, tax and a primary surplus target ahead of a meeting of finance ministers on Thursday in Luxembourg, according to a Greek government official speaking on condition of anonymity. 
  • China’s Stock Market Value Exceeds $10 Trillion for First Time. The value of Chinese stocks rose above $10 trillion for the first time after doubling this year amid a world-beating rally. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.9 percent this week to its highest level since January 2008. Companies with a primary listing in China were valued at $10.03 trillion at the end of trading Friday, an increase of $5.1 trillion since the end of 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan’s stock market is valued at $5 trillion, while the U.S. is at almost $25 trillion.
  • Fed Watch Spurs Higher Volatility as Stakes Increase for Dollar. Dollar bulls and bears are united on one thing: next week’s Federal Reserve meeting will dictate the path of the U.S. currency. Price swings by the greenback versus the euro reached the highest level since January, raising the stakes for central bank policy makers who have acknowledged a strong dollar poses an economic headwind. Traders are preparing to parse every post-meeting syllable from Fed Chair Janet Yellen for guidance on the timing of its first rate interest-rate increase since 2006 and the path beyond.
Wall Street Journal:
  • When Does a Hack Become an Act of War? Large-scale cyberattacks have in recent years become effective national-security weapons. A tremendous number of personnel records—including some quite personal records—have likely been stolen by computer hackers. The White House won’t say who did it, but a number of U.S. officials and even some lawmakers have said all signs point to China. The Chinese government has denied it, but the staggering haul of records could amount to one of the biggest feats of espionage in decades.
  • Syrian Kurds Nearing Islamic State Border Strongholds. Hundreds of Syrian refugees pour into a Turkish-Syrian border crossing, fleeing intense fighting.
Fox News:
  • Gunman fires on Dallas police outside headquarters. (video) A crazed gunman armed with an automatic weapon and a shotgun fired on officers outside Dallas Police Headquarters early Saturday morning before he was believed killed by a police sniper after an hours-long standoff. Dallas Police Chief David Brown said at a press conference hours later that the gunman ranted in a 911 call about killing cops and came within seconds of doing so in the case of two officers.
CNBC:
  • U.S. poised to put heavy weaponry in East Europe. In a significant move to deter possible Russian aggression in Europe, the Pentagon is poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 American troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, American and allied officials say.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:

Friday, June 12, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,095.17 +.09%*
 photo bye_zpsw8gvj4m6.png

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,095.17 +.09%
  • DJIA 17,904.60 +.32%
  • NASDAQ 5,051.53 -.30%
  • Russell 2000 1,265.10 +.31%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 34.59 -.43%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 144.97 +.04% 
  • Wilshire 5000 21,963.50 +.10%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,004.93 -.09%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,028.60 +.26%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 491.38 +.86%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 136.80 -.38%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,041.96 -.46%
  • Transports 8,417.41 -1.1%
  • Utilities 560.99 -.36%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 118.24 +.37%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 40.44 +.09%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,220.97 -.31%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 988.86 +.35%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 237,328 -.20%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -3 +175
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.1 +12.09%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 339,518 -2.43%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,651,449 +2.30%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +.97%
  • OEX Put/Call .90 +26.32%
  • ISE Sentiment 106.0 +16.49%
  • NYSE Arms 1.70 +135.80%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.76 -2.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.0 -5.67%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.35 +.58%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.36 -2.70%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,374.89 +.08%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.610 Trillion -.29%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.218 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 20.0 -26.7%
  • AAII % Bears 32.6 +32.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 223.53 +.45%
  • Crude Oil 59.96 +1.89%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 212.89 +4.74%
  • Natural Gas 2.75 +6.09%
  • Heating Oil 188.67 +1.20%
  • Gold 1,179.70 +.63%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 166.83 -.55%
  • Copper 267.95 -.83%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 231.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.13 USD/Ton +1.06%
  • Lumber 294.50 +1.10%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,064.96 -1.59%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .9% -10.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0432 -4.43%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.11 +.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.0 +14.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.70 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.80 +5.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/17
  • US Dollar Index 94.99 -1.45%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.1 -.32%
  • Yield Curve 166.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.38% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.429 Trillion +.05%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.51 +2.03%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 223.0 -.90%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.08 -.45%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.92 -1.30%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 319.04 +3.55%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.50 -.62%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 675.24 +2.08%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 348.82 -.13%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.26 +.12%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 28.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.25 +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.0 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.56 +.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,571.0 +35.58%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.32 +1.51%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 312.91 +1.82%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.50 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.964 Trillion -.89%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 965.10 +2.20%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 278,750 +4,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% +10 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.04% +17 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 400.50 +8.39%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.1 -.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.20% -60.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.79/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 642.0 +3.11%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 851.40 -1.24%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -6.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 281,315 +13.81%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Insurance +1.9%
  • Homebuilders +1.5%
  • Banks +1.5%
  • Steel +1.2%
  • Foods +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Semis -1.7% 
  • Gold & Silver -1.8%
  • Oil Tankers -3.0%
  • Gaming -4.9%
  • Coal -8.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)
  • ISLE, HCC, LOXO, SIGM, TBRA, RCPT, ZOES, FLXN, MXL, KKD, LLY, NWBO, IXYS, DMND, WETF, HLS, FOLD, DWRE, AZZ, OXM, BOX, FRSH and IDT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)
  • LC, NRZ, THO, CTRE, SNH, WGO, IRWD, BURL, AVID, NEM, NEWM, ESL, LE, FRAN, VNCE, ZUMZ, ESPR and SHLD
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Greece Debt Deal Worries, Rising Eurozone/Emerging Markets/US HIgh-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Drop, Biotech/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.65 +6.38%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.36 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.36 -.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.03 +1.45%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 +72.58%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +32.53%
  • NYSE Arms 2.06 +82.89% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.40 +2.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,576.0 +2.61%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.32 +2.19%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.69 +11.3%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.23 +2.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 312.67 +.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.25 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.25 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 28.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 166.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $65.13/Metric Tonne -.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.0 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.80 +5.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -78 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.83%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -3.62% 2) Gaming -1.92% 3) Energy -1.31%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • AGIO, SNY, KMI, NWE, SHLD, LOXO, CMP, AHGP, SPH, VIMC, LLY, XONE, ZSPH, DDC, BOX, MPAA, ESPR, AER, E, AVID, CHRS, DBVT, JCI, NTCT, USLV and AGIO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWG 2) XLU 3) RH 4) CNX 5) GREK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AET 2) GMCR 3) PBR 4) AZZ 5) SUNE
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.31%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.22% 2) Homebuilders +.14% 3) Restaurants +.08%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ZPIN, FOLD, XNET, DSKY, TEDU, KNDI, AMBA, SUPN and LL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CSC 2) EXEL 3) NFX 4) OCN 5) VRX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BOBE 2) WSM 3) CTRX 4) DRI 5) MNST
Charts: