Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Greek debt deal concerns, Fed rate hike worries, global growth fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, China bubble concerns and earnings worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Weekend of Fear in Greece as Banks, People Live Day to Day. Dorothea Lambros stood outside an HSBC branch in central Athens on Friday afternoon, an envelope stuffed with cash in one hand and a 38,000 euro ($43,000) cashier’s check in the other. She was a few minutes too late to make her deposit at the London-based bank. She was too scared to take her life-savings back to her Greek bank. She worried it wouldn’t survive the weekend. “I don’t know what happens on Monday,” said Lambros, a 58-year-old government employee. Nobody does. Every shifting deadline, every last-gasp effort has built up to this: a nation that went to sleep on Friday not knowing what Monday will bring. A deal, or more brinkmanship. Shuttered banks and empty cash machines, or a few more days of euros in their pockets and drachmas in their past - - and maybe their future.

• Greece’s Tsipras to Assemble Cabinet on Eve of Bailout Talks. Greece’s cabinet will huddle with the prime minister on Sunday to map out its strategy for a meeting the next day that will decide the nation’s future in Europe’s currency bloc. On the agenda at the meeting in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ residence is whether to compromise on election promises in order to avoid a default on its debt. Months of back and forth with creditors have left banks living day-to-day on European Central Bank funding. Panicked depositors have withdrawn 30 billion euros ($34 billion) since December and 4 billion euros the past week alone. Without a deal at an European Union leaders summit on Monday, Greece faces the specter of capital controls and what U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said was a “terrible” economic decline.

• EU, Greece Pursue Quiet Diplomacy to Stave Off Default. (video) European Union leaders and Greece’s creditors head into a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy ahead of high-level meetings to unlock aid for the nation flirting with default. With markets closed, the weekend gives negotiators trying to avert a Greek exit from the euro some room to lay out a road map for what will be a high-stakes week with an emergency summit of EU chiefs on Monday. The clock is running down on a June 30 deadline to make payments and work out a new deal amid disagreements on pensions, sales tax and a deficit target.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Greece Considers Last-Ditch Proposals to Avoid Collision With Bailout Creditors. Athens would consider culling tax breaks to pay for smaller pension cuts.

• Anthem(ANTM) Raises Offer for Cigna(CI) to $47.5 Billion. Aetna(AET) in the last few days made a takeover proposal to Humana(HUM).

• ObamaCare’s Oligopoly Wave. Bigger insurance, bigger medicine, and a health consolidation frenzy.

ZeroHedge:

• Meanwhile, Greece Is Quietly Printing Billions Of Euros.

• "The Collateral Has Run Out" - JPM Warns ECB Will Use Greek "Nuclear Option" If No Monday Deal.

• The Lesson In China: Don't Go Bubble In the First Place. (graph)

• So You Think You Are Rich. (graph)

• China Must Be Getting Really Nervous To Do This.

• Black Box Trading: Why They All “Blow-Up”.

• Dumb Or Smart Money? Bullish Bets On VIX Highest Since 2008. (graph)

• Liquidity And Manipulated Prices Are Not An Economy And Never Will Be.

• The Coming US Recession Charted.

• "Bank Holiday" Preparations Begin In Greece, Lines Form At Athens ATMs.

• Cities, States Shun Moody's For Blowing The Whistle On Pension Liabilities.

• Disgraced, Demoted Pathological Liar To Collect $10 Million At MSNBC.

• Fearing Capital Controls, Tourists Request Hotel Safes In Greece.

• Carl Icahn: Donald Trump Is Completely Correct That "We Are In A Bubble Like You've Never Seen Before". (video)

• This Is The Most Profitable "Strategy" Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund In The Past Decade. (graph)

• Inciting Bank Runs As A Negotiating Tactic.

• Bonds & Bullion Beat Stocks As Fed Frenzy Fades. (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Shades Or Umbrella. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Talking Barbies are ushering in a new era of mass surveillance.

• Relations between the US and China are getting tense.

• SOROS: The US needs to befriend China or all hell is going to break loose.

• Developers in China are giving away Porsches to sell houses.

• Iranian official: There will be a nuke deal because 'Americans need it more than we do'.

• Greece is now officially a part of Russia big new gas plan.

• Russia built one of the most alarming antiaircraft systems in history — and won't say who it's sending it to.

• Here's what stock market valuations look like if you add back all the bad stuff companies like to take out.

Financial Times:

• Greek banks: Athens’ Achilles heel. Until this week, the big suspense surrounding Greece was whether Athens would be able to meet a €1.6bn debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund due at the end of June or go bankrupt. But the fear of default is rapidly being overtaken by a separate — and possibly more dangerous — ticking time bomb: the solvency of Greece’s banks.

Telegraph: 

• The euro was doomed from the start. The Greek crisis epitomises the complete mess that Europe has made of the single currency.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,109.99 +.76%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,109.99 +.76%

• DJIA 18,015.95 +.65%

• NASDAQ 5,117.0 +1.31%

• Russell 2000 1,284.66 +1.55%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.57 -.15%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 149.79 +3.32% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,138.49 +.82%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,014.28 +.99%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,033.69 +.52%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 500.68 +1.92%

• Solactive US Cyclical 136.68 -.08%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,044.61 +.27%

• Transports 8,411.88 -.06%

• Utilities 569.68 +1.63%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 116.31 -1.63%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.25 +.51%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,220.52 -.04%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 992.21 +.34%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 237,043 +.25%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 170 +173

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 39.13 +69.54%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 325,855 -4.02%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,641,774 -.59%

• Total Put/Call .91 -13.33%

• OEX Put/Call 1.08 +18.68%

• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -26.96%

• NYSE Arms 1.80 -3.23%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.96 +1.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.40 +3.71%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.86 -4.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.99 -3.95%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,498.44 +.71%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.599 Trillion -.42%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.879 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 25.4 +26.8%

• AAII % Bears 34.3 +5.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 222.13 -.63%

• Crude Oil 59.61 -.55%

• Reformulated Gasoline 205.86 -2.78%

• Natural Gas 2.82 +1.88%

• Heating Oil 186.69 -.98%

• Gold 1,201.90 +1.79%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 161.54 -3.17%

• Copper 256.90 -4.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 249.33 USD/Ton +7.6%

• China Iron Ore Spot 61.36 USD/Ton -5.79%

• Lumber 298.60 +1.39%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,062.0 -.28%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.0% +10.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0432 unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.30 +.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.8 -6.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.90 -1.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/29

• US Dollar Index 94.09 -.87%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.39 +.12%

• Yield Curve 164.0 -2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.26% -12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.450 Trillion +.45%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.78 +1.65%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 216.0 -3.12%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.87 +12.42%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.22 -2.10%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 319.27 -.35%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.92 -.12%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 671.54 -.55%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 354.16 +1.48%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.59 +.28%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 28.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.81 +1.0%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,555.0 -2.62%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 89.87 +14.44%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 310.55 -.63%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.50 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.963 Trillion -.04%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 974.50 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 276,750 -2,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.0% -4 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 378.50 -5.49%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.9 +.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.20% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.80/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 773.0 +20.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 825.97 -2.99%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +14.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 283,363 +.73%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.8%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +6.3%

• Biotech +4.0%

• Homebuilders +3.2%

• Hospitals +3.2%

• Utilities +2.3%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -.7% 

• Computer Hardware -.9%

• Steel -2.8%

• Oil Service -2.9%

• Coal -6.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• TRAK, AERI, ADMS, KYTH, POZN, RDUS, COTY, TRIP, LTRPA, NYRT, CI, LPG, NCR, NHTC, IL, BCC, KFY, RYL, WRE, MASI, BOBE, HRC, BEE, ZAYO and OPB

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• HCHC, SSTK, GRUB, JBL, AVHI, REI, ONDK, RATE, EGN, CNSI, AGIO and AAVL

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Greek Debt Deal Worries, Global Growth Concerns, China Bubble Fears, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.41 +1.67%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.48 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.95 +.34%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.14 -.50%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +10.11%

• Total Put/Call .83 -10.75%

• NYSE Arms 1.81 +185.60% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.91 -.51%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,554.0 -.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.87 -1.29%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.88 +.03%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.22 -.15%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 308.90 +.62%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.59 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 28.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

• Yield Curve 165.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.36/Metric Tonne -.66%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.0 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.80 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.90 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -15 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.44%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -2.02% 2) Oil Service -1.76% 3) Gaming -1.30%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• WSTC, HWAY, TERP, KWEB, MAC, FNSR, ZOES, RAVE, NNBR, AAVL, RDHL, KMX, HSY, AMBA, KB, TKMR, DBVT, EHIC, AAOI, AIT, SHG, RUBI, NVS, VILE, ORCL, MDXG, CAVM, ISLE and SAGE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WBA 2) SWN 3) ADSK 4) KMX 5) JNK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZOES 2) FNSR 3) BMRN 4) PBR 5) AIT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume