Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as Fed rate hike worries, earnings outlook concerns and China bubble-bursting fears offset technical buying, short-covering and Greece debt deal hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Greece Talks Spill Into 2nd Day as Finance Chiefs Deadlock. European finance ministers deadlocked over how to keep Greece in the euro, forcing emergency talks to continue Sunday and threatening to delay the infusion Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras desperately needs. With Greece running out of money and its banks shut for the past two weeks, the hardline group led by Germany signaled that the country’s debt was too great, Tsipras’s reform proposals were inadequate and, in any event, the Greeks couldn’t be trusted to keep their word. Finance ministry aides will work through the night, allowing finance chiefs to reconvene at 11 a.m. in Brussels before a leaders’ summit.

• Greek Bailout Dissected as German Skepticism Clouds Talks. European officials are grilling Greece on its bailout proposals in talks to save its place in the euro as a German-led bloc questions whether they go far enough. Hours after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won overwhelming support in Parliament for the package of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases, some finance ministers arriving in Brussels voiced skepticism over the details. Their meeting begins two days of wrangling that will conclude with a summit on Sunday, the deadline to reach a new deal. 

• Yellen Puts Bond Market on Notice 2015 Rate Increase Is Looming. Janet Yellen is reminding the bond market that 2015 will include at least one interest-rate increase. After Treasuries posted a four-day rally through July 8 on refuge demand linked to unsolved Greek bailout talks and plunging Chinese stocks, U.S. debt reversed direction. The Fed chair’s remarks then helped extend the biggest two-day rout since 2013, along with improved chances of a Greek solution and a rebound in China’s equities, which cooled concern of a meltdown for the world’s second largest economy.

ZeroHedge:

• Eurogroup Meeting Ends Without Agreement: "Huge Problems", "Issue Of Greek Trust Very Difficult".

• Someone Told Merkel...

• Varoufakis' Stunning Accusation: Schauble Wants A Grexit "To Put The Fear Of God" Into The French.

• German FinMin Blasts Greek Proposal: Debt Restructuring Impossible, "Everyone Knows They Can't Be Believed".

• It's Not Just The Troika: 79% Of Greeks Oppose Syriza's Third Bailout Proposal.

• Schauble Proposes "5 Year Grexit With Humanitarian Support".

• The Chart That Keeps Angela Merkel Up At Night. (graph)

• Over To You Merkel: Greek Govt Approves Bill The Greek People Soundly Rejected.

• "There Is Going To Be A Taper Tantrum In Latin America... It Is Inescapable".

• How The World Works - The Santelligram.

• Risky Loans Are 'Driving' US Auto Sales: 3 Charts.

• Violent Crime Is Surging In Major U.S. Cities And The Economy Is Not Even Crashing Yet.

• China's Margin Mania In Context, The "Striking" Comparison With The US And Japan. (graph)

• Finland Echoes Germany, Wants Greece Out; Five Other Nations Back Grexit.

• Mapping The World's "Grey Swans". (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: "China Rising" Or Not? (graph)

• Dramamine Required: Stocks End Week Unchanged Despite Nausea-Inducing Wild Ride. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Greece appears to be on its way to a 3rd bailout.

• High valuations are weighing on US stocks ahead of earnings.

• The entire world learned a very important lesson about China this week.

• Jeb Bush’s ‘longer hours’ remark will haunt him.

• Junk bond issuance has 'frozen up'.

Telegraph: 

• Greece news live: Germany readies five-year temporary Grexit plan after finance ministers fail to reach agreement. Wolfgang Schauble reportedly rejects Greece's new austerity measures, favouring a "temporary" Grexit as creditors demand even more austerity from Greece.

• A focus on Greece means we risk downplaying important events in China. The reduction in the value of Chinese shares in the past month alone has been 13 times the size of the Greek economy.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,078.99 +.20%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,078.99 +.20%

• DJIA 17,779.10 +.24%

• NASDAQ 5,003.25 -.16%

• Russell 2000 1,250.90 +.24%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.97 -1.46%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 139.93 -1.01% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,760.70 +.04%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,003.48 +.49%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,012.37 -.18%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 505.55 +2.17%

• Solactive US Cyclical 129.60 -1.36%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,011.64 -.28%

• Transports 8,205.26 +.97%

• Utilities 571.85 +1.83%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 116.87 +.66%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.38 -4.08%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,182.87 -2.46%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 989.04 -.70%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 232,493 -.76%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -370 -112

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.21 +33.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 328,179 +.23%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,670,091 +1.22%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -.98%

• OEX Put/Call 1.0 +163.16%

• ISE Sentiment 79.0 -.34%

• NYSE Arms .92 -17.85%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.72 -1.07%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.39 -4.68%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.79 -2.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.87 +.91%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,735.92 -.31%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.634 Trillion +.73%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.514 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.9 +23.4%
• AAII % Bears 29.2 -16.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 218.25 -2.81%

• Crude Oil 52.72 -6.64%

• Reformulated Gasoline 202.22 -.63%

• Natural Gas 2.78 -2.29%

• Heating Oil 173.78 -5.19%

• Gold 1,160.80 -.47%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 158.15 -2.47%

• Copper 254.20 -3.70%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 249.33 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 50.10 USD/Ton -9.34%

• Lumber 295.20 +2.37%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,164.74 -.18%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.2% -20.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1268 +.94%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.70 +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.9 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.5 -.9 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/29
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 7.43 +13.1%

• US Dollar Index 96.02 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.88 +.13%

• Yield Curve 177.0 +1.0 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.42% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.443 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.94 -4.33%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 229.0 +1.60%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.25 -3.99%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 59.92 +.98%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 298.53 -4.29%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.0 +1.14%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 740.24 +2.22%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 327.66 -1.11%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.24 -1.24%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.75 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.41 +2.05%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,259.0 +1.27%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 79.42 -13.33%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 298.55 -.23%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 91.0 +.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $3.049 Trillion +.62%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,020.60 +7.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 279,500 +4,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.04% -4 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 383.50 +4.64%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.50 -.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.50% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.76/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 853.0 +5.96%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 804.80 +1.79%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +15.38%
• Rail Freight Carloads 255,015 -7.46%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.5%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +2.6%

• Utilities +1.9%

• Drugs +1.9%

• Homebuilders +1.9%

• Tobacco +1.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -4.0% 

• 3D Printing -4.6%

• Oil Tankers -5.0%

• Gold & Silver -6.1%

• Coal -9.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (5)

• DEPO, TISI, CTCT, MDCO and TCS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• WCIC, HNT, CAP, YELP, SC, CATM, AOS, PRFT and QLGC

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Greece Debt Deal Hopes, China Bounce, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Drug/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.36 -13.07%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.83 +2.10%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.87 -3.06%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.88 -5.42%

• ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -10.2%

• Total Put/Call .97 -17.09%

• NYSE Arms .86 +8.92% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.86 -5.37%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,261.0 -.80%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.43 -13.37%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.25 -17.09%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.92 -2.91%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 300.99 -3.12%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.24 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 26.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +2.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 176.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $50.10/Metric Tonne +2.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.9 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.50 -2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 +3.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 7.43 -.44

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +331 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -366 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Europe Weighs Greek Proposal as Tsipras Seeks Lawmaker Support. France praised a Greek package of reforms while other nations voiced skepticism, as lawmakers in Athens prepared to debate whether to support Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s plan to access a bailout of at least 53.5 billion euros ($60 billion). The packet of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases was being studied on Friday by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank after it was submitted late the previous day. While the German government said it will wait for the institutions to make their assessment, French President Francois Hollande said in a rare Twitter post that the reform proposals were “serious, credible” and demonstrated Greece’s determination to stay in the euro area. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite voiced pessimism, saying the new offer “will really not be enough,” Reuters reported.
• Greek Bank Restructuring May Be Unavoidable Even With Bailout. Greece’s last-minute efforts to secure a 53.5 billion euro ($60 billion) bailout may have come too late to save the nation’s banks and their bondholders. “Even with an agreement between the government and Europe, bank senior debt may need to be bailed in,” said Michael Doran, a partner at law firm White & Case in London. “Additional recapitalization tools may also be required given the scale of the problems.” Doran worked on the restructuring of Cypriot banks in 2013, which included seizing nearly half of all deposits over 100,000 euros.
• Greek Skeptics Say Market Rally Masks Lingering Risks of Failure. While European markets show signs of optimism that Greece can reach a deal with its creditors as soon as this weekend, not everyone is ready to call time on the saga. Fitch Ratings’s global head of sovereigns says the two sides remain far apart. And strategists at Societe Generale SA still see a 65 percent chance that Greece will leave the euro. “Even with the program that we saw submitted last night, we think it’ still going to be quite difficult to reach an agreement,” Fitch’s James McCormack said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The two sides are further apart than ever. In the Greek economy the hole that they’ve been digging is deeper now so the adjustment on the fiscal side is going to have to be that much bigger.”
• China's Richest People Just Lost About $100 Billion in a Month. Market Seesaw Reshapes Global Wealth Landscape. It takes an iron stomach to be one of the richest people in China. Billionaires from China and Hong Kong who rank among the 400 wealthiest people on earth gained $121 billion this year through June 12, 2015, when equity markets peaked there. They lost almost $100 billion as shares plummeted this month, including $30 billion at the start of the week, before the rally on Thursday and Friday. ``I hope these people realize that it's just paper money,'' said Niklas Hageback, who helps oversee about $202 million at Hong Kong-based money management firm Valkyria Kapital. ``I hope for their own personal mental health that they have been able to realize that. Otherwise, if you just start to look at your own income statements, the losses are truly horrendous.''
• China Slashes Vehicle Sales Forecast to 3% Amid Stocks Rout. China slashed its forecast for vehicle sales in the world’s largest market, projecting deliveries to expand at the slowest pace in four years amid a stock-market rout that threatens to dent consumer sentiment. Total vehicle deliveries including trucks and buses will probably rise by 3 percent this year, down from the 7 percent projected in January, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday. That would be the smallest increase since 2011, when the government unwound stimulus measures unleashed in the wake of the global financial crisis.
• Volkswagen Said to Give out $161 Million to China Dealers. The funding will be paid to distributors selling VW brand cars made by the company’s joint venture with China FAW Group Corp., according to two people familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private. Volkswagen, the biggest foreign automaker by sales in China, is the latest company to extend financial subsidies to distributors hit by the slowing economy and a stock market that erased $4 trillion in market value in less than a month. BMW AG earlier this year agreed to pay subsidies to its distributors in China to help cover losses after retailers stopped ordering cars from the manufacturer.  
• China's Stock Market Selloff Explained in Six Charts.
• Putin Calls U.S. Debt ‘Serious Problem’ as He Defends Greece. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of dangers to the global economy from U.S. borrowing while saying Greece isn’t solely to blame for its debt crisis. “It’s a serious problem not just for the United States but for the whole world economy,” Putin told reporters Friday in the Russian city of Ufa in response to a question on the prospects of the biggest developing nations. “Debt exceeds gross domestic product there.” 
• Canada Jobs Loss in June Ratifies Faltering-Economy View. Canadian employment fell by 6,400 in June on the biggest decline in part-time work in more than four years, sustaining the view the economy is losing steam and may require another jolt of stimulus from the central bank. The unemployment rate remained at 6.8 percent for a fifth month, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. Part-time work fell 71,200, exceeding the 64,800 gain in full-time work. Quebec posted a decline of 33,300, the most since May 2005.
• India’s Factory Output Misses Estimates as Consumer Goods Fall. India’s factory output rose less than economists estimated, boosting pressure on policy makers to revive investment in Asia’s third-largest economy. Industrial production rose 2.7 percent in May from a year earlier after a revised 3.4 percent gain in April, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement on Friday. That compares with a 4 percent rise predicted by the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Manufacturing output climbed 2.2 percent, electricity 6 percent, mining 2.8 percent and capital goods production rose 1.8 percent. Consumer goods fell 1.6 percent. 
• Europe Stocks End Dizzying Week With Biggest Gain in Three Years. Investors got quite the ride with a week of almost symmetrical contrasts, culminating in the largest two-day rally since November 2011. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4 percent this week amid speculation that Greece may finally secure a fresh bailout. Shares had earlier tumbled to the lowest level since February, flirting with a correction, as Greek voters rejected creditors’ demands. Stocks wrapped up the week with a 2 percent gain.
• IEA Says Oil Prices May Fall Even Further Before Supply Fades in 2016. (video)
  Oil prices may fall further as the world remains “massively oversupplied,” before markets tighten in 2016 when output growth outside OPEC grinds to a halt, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Traders Dump Energy Hedges Amid Another Low Hurdle for Earnings. Investors see history repeating for energy companies this season, speculating that profit forecasts are again so low that there’s little need to hedge against a miss. Implied volatility on an exchange-traded fund tracking energy companies is at its lowest in 14 months versus another ETF mirroring the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The decline signals falling demand for options used to protect against losses in the shares. 
• For Big Miners, the Pain's Only Likely to Get Worse. (graph) Overproduction and a weakening Chinese economy could put dividends at risk. Even after a bounce-back over the past two days, the Bloomberg World Mining Index of 79 producers has tumbled 61 percent from a 2011 peak as prices for iron ore, coal, copper, and other industrial metals collapsed. 
• Yellen Maintains Outlook for First Rate Increase in 2015. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she still expects to raise interest rates this year and repeated that the subsequent pace of increases will be gradual. “I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy,” Yellen said in her first public remarks since the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. “But I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step,” she said in the text of a speech Friday in Cleveland.
• Plosser: A Lot of Desire for Federal Reserve Rate Hike. (video)
• Confederate Flag Removed From Capitol in South Carolina. (video)

Wall Street Journal:

• Memo to China: Your Market Moves Are Doomed to Fail.

Fox News: 

• OPM director Katherine Archuleta resigns in wake of data breach. (video) U.S. personnel chief Katherine Archuleta resigned Friday in the wake of massive data breach that allowed hackers to steal the records of more than 21 million people under her watch, Fox News confirmed. Archuleta submitted her resignation to President Obama Friday morning. Her resignation is effective at the close of business today.

CNBC:

• Protesters gather as Greece debates austerity. (video)

ZeroHedge: 

• The Latest Thing In China: Brokers Refusing Sell Orders.
• Someone Pull The Plug Or This Will End In War.
• Why GM Is Back Below Its IPO Price, Part 2 - Chinese Auto Sales Collapse At Fastest Rate In 3 Years. (graph)
• John Taylor: IMF Loans To Greece Bailed Out Banks And Worsened The Situation.
• The Complete Visual Summary Of The "New" Greek Bailout Proposal.
• Oil Price Plunge Reignites Fears for Indebted Shale Companies. (graph)
• Here Is The Flashing Red Light In The Inventory-Sales Ratio. (graph)
• TD Ameritrade Breaks, Experiencing "Widespread Order-Routing" Problems. 
• Why China's Stock Collapse Could Lead To Revolution. (graph)
• Maintaining The Illusion Of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes.
• Snow In The Summer? Card Data Shows Unexpected, "Disappointing" Drop In June Retail Spending. (graph)

Business Insider:

• EX-CIA GOLDMAN ANALYST: 'We are in an extraordinarily dangerous time right now'.
• Oil rig count rises for a second straight week.
• The massive China hack on US data 'will be debilitating to US intelligence for a generation'.
• ALBERT EDWARDS: China's stock market crash foreshadows how the 'global equity Ponzi scheme' will fall apart.
• Now China is forcing students to recite chants praising its stock market intervention.

Telegraph:

• Greece news live: Tsipras quells rebellion as Greeks set to pass tougher three-year rescue package. Deal looks to be more severe than the proposal rejected by Sunday's referendum and - crucially - there is no mention of debt sustainability.

ZDF TV:

• Tsipras's Proposals Run Against Greek People's Will: Brinkhaus. Ralph Brinkhaus, deputy chairman of German Chancellor Angel Merkel's Christian Union bloc in parliament, says he doesn't see how Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's govt can implement proposed reforms that were rejected by a majority of Greeks. "It's interesting that he seems to be offering the EU and his partners what his own people rejected in the referendum on Sunday," he said. "We have to ask ourselves two questions: what's on this reform list and how credible is it that this reform list will actually be implemented?"

China Auto New:

• Volkswagen's China Partner Says Co. 1H Sales 'Fail'. Changes in the market structure was "beyond our expectations," citing FAW-VW's board secretary Sun Guowang. FAW-VW 1H sales fell 11.3% y/y, according to the report. Sales performance was not up to expectations, he said.