Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.7%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -3.4% 2) Biotech -3.1% 3) Disk Drives -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• VRX, ZYNE, CBPX, ALR, GWPH, WBAI, WPXP, DDD, LLY, ADRO, ACOR, UBIO, TCO, MOMO, TTEC, AWR, MNK, ENDP, PLKI, WCC, NVS, GB, CXRX, QIWI and PRSC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWT 2) VRX 3) QCOM 4) JNK 5) DXJ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NE 2) TIF 3) PBR 4) SAFM 5) DDD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 

• Large-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.2% 2) REITs +.2% 3) Restaurants +.1% 
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• INGN, FOE, MJN, PLCE and RCII

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) ODP 2) CIT 3) SIG 4) VRX 5) MJN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) ABX 2) OUTR 3) WHR 4) PLCE 5) DSW

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 19.0% of Issues Advancing, 78.6% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1%
• Vix 17.1 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .92 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.57 +17.4%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.5 +1.25 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.0 -1.25 basis points. 
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.76 -.07%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (DSW)/.07
• (FDS)/1.66
• (HDS)/.24
• (JASO)/.68
• (VRX)/2.62
• (XONE)/-.15
• (ORCL)/.62

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for February are estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for February are estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in January.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in January.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for February is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in January.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in January.
• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to -10.5 versus -16.64 in February. 

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to rise to 59.0 versus 58.0 in February. 
• Business Inventories for January are estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in December. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoJ rate decision, RBA minutes, US weekly retail sales reports, Barclays Healthcare Conference, BofA Merrill Consumer/Retail Tech Conference and the (CBS) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.95 +2.73%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.92 -.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.46 -1.72%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.42 -1.58%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -6.58%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -.99%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +44.65% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.36 +2.88%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,754.0 -5.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.25 +2.66%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.59 -.7%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.59 -2.42%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 320.42 -.04%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.60 +.25%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 unch.
  

• TED Spread 31.25 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -1.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.89 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% unch.

• Yield Curve 100.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.55/Metric Tonne -2.70%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.50 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.40 +3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.30 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53% unch.
• 26.7% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 53.1% chance at June 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +16 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold and Silver -2.4% 2) Oil Service -1.8% 3) Computer Hardware -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GEF, IILG, CTB, BPT, GB, ACOR, LCI, ANET, SA, WBAI, BOJA, PSXP, RNG, LOCO, LXK, TSO, EVA, CWEI, ORA, TGNA, FF, ERIE, XRAY, KOF, HIBB, RNG and IILG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) DOW 3) MAR 4) HP 5) ORCL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PBR 2) WERN 3) MON 4) ALV 5) K

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume