Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Financial/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.77 +2.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.99 -.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.28 -1.40%

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +76.32%
  

• Total Put/Call .74 +1.37%

• NYSE Arms .83 +101.0% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.06 -1.23%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 748.0 -3.01%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.25 -.59%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.73 -.69%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 51.0 -3.61%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 254.81 -1.16%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.55 +.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.75 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.42 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.

• Yield Curve 77.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.68/Metric Tonne +.92%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 +4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.40 -1.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% unch.
• 13.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 13.3% chance at Nov. 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +497 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 85.5% of Issues Advancing, 12.4% Declining
• 330 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 56.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.8%
• Vix 13.4 +1.4%
• Total Put/Call .72 -1.4%
• TRIN/Arms .82 +98.1%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.50 -5.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 53.0 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.40 +.08%.
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (OZRK)/.59
• (AA)/.10
• (VOXX)/-.10

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Labor Market Conditions Index for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's George speaking, Japan Machine Orders report, 3Y T-Note auction and the (UAL) June Traffic report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as commodity weakness, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and earnings outlook worries offset central bank hopes, short-covering and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• S&P 500 Closes Near Record as Jobs Data Caps Post-Brexit Rebound. (video) A week’s evidence that the U.S. economy’s ill health has been overstated and dovish talk from the Federal Reserve combined to briefly catapult the S&P 500 Index above its May 2015 record close, leaving stocks on the brink of ending their longest drought of the bull market. Gains on Friday capped an eight-day rebound of 6.5 percent that restored $1.4 trillion of market capitalization to U.S. shares, value that was erased in the aftermath of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. The S&P 500 advanced more than 1 percent for the fourth time in two weeks, after stronger June payroll growth calmed concerns sown by May’s anemic number. Banks, technology and retailer shares were among the biggest contributors to the rally. 
• Spain’s Socialists Won’t Back Rajoy’s Bid to Form Government. Spain’s Socialist Party won’t lend its support to Mariano Rajoy, the nation’s acting prime minister, who is aiming to form a government by August. “From the three options: abstention, a supporting or against, the socialists will vote against,” Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Socialist Party, said in a televised speech on Saturday. Rajoy, whose People’s Party was the only group to increase its vote in June 26 elections, is seeking support from other parties having failed to win a majority. Last month’s vote marked the second time Spaniards had been to the polls in six months. Rajoy won 137 seats in the 350-strong Spanish chamber, short of the 176 seat-threshold for a majority while Sanchez’s Socialists won 85 seats, down 5 from December.
• Voting Starts in Japan as Abe Seeks Upper House Majority. Voting began Sunday in Japan in an upper house election that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has billed as a chance to judge his economic policies. Opposition parties are focused on preventing a resounding win for Abe that would allow him to take the next step toward revising the pacifist constitution. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. Tokyo time and will close at 8 p.m., with media exit polls generally published immediately afterward and official results later in the evening. Media surveys show Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito are likely to win a simple majority of the 121 seats in contention. With support from two smaller conservative parties, the premier has a good chance of gaining the two-thirds of seats in the chamber needed to embark on constitutional change. For a guide to the election, click here.
• Baltics to Black Sea: NATO Unity May Be Tested by Next Challenge. Leaders at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit that ended Saturday sought to demonstrate unity among the 28 alliance members as they face multiple threats and uncertainties, from Islamic State to Russia to Brexit. In that, they appeared to succeed. The seeds of discord, however, were also evident, as leaders wait to discover what Russia’s response to the decisions made at the Warsaw summit will be. For Poland and the Baltic states, the 4,000 troops that NATO members agreed to deploy across four countries may not be the end of what’s required, depending on Russia’s actions. At NATO’s last summit just two years ago, leaders announced a smaller rapid reaction force for the Baltic states, to similar fanfare.
• Bonds Signaling a Fed on Permanent Hold, Fleming Says. Global bond markets in negative or record-low-yield territory signal slow growth that means the U.S. Federal Reserve probably missed its window to raise interest rates, according to former Morgan Stanley wealth-management head Greg Fleming. “Given the uncertainty and a lot of the challenges that these central banks are dealing with, rates are not going up really anywhere,” Fleming said in an interview with “Wall Street Week” scheduled to air Friday. “Our Fed has missed the window to take rates up. And I do think that’s going to be a problem over time.”

Wall Street Journal:

• President Obama Says He Shares FBI Director’s Concerns on Handling of Sensitive Data. FBI chief James Comey said Hillary Clinton’s email use while secretary of state was ‘extremely careless’.
• After Dallas Shootings, U.S. Police Take Extra Precautions. Officers are ordered to work in pairs, wear ballistic vests in wake of violence.

Zero Hedge:

• "Remain" Loses Again - British Government Officially Rejects Petition For 2nd Referendum.
• Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank(DB).
• Obama Blames "Easy Access To Guns" For Surge In Violence Between Police And Minorities. 
• Deutsche Bank(DB) Gives Up: "We Can't Think Of A Time The S&P Was More Disjointed From Everything".
• End All The Myths - The Demise Of Draghi's Self-Delusion.
• Hillary's Seven Biggest Lies Refuted By The FBI, And The "Smoking Gun".
• The Decline & Fall Of The Biggest Bond Market In The World Has Only One Inevitable Ending. (graph)
• When Narratives Go Bad. 
• A Portrait Of Quantitative Failure. (graph)
• How George Soros Singlehandedly Created The European Refugee Crisis - And Why.
• What Happens When This Chart Hits Zero? (graph)
• Dallas Shooter, Army Vet Micah Johnson, "Wanted To Kill White People".
• Breakdown Of US Citizens Killed By Cops In 2016. 
• The Bearish David Rosenberg Reemerges: "What If I Told You Employment Actually Declined 119,000 In June".
• Consumer Credit Jumps $19 Billion In May Thanks To New All Time Highs In Student And Auto Loans. (graph)
• Trader Asks: "Remember The All Time Highs After Bear's Subprime Funds Blew Up?" (graph)
• Weekend Reading: Central Banks Save The World.
• Jobs Bounce Sends Stocks Soaring To Record High As Bond Yields Hit Record Lows. (graph)

Business Insider:

• 'No suspects found': Dallas PD completes search after reports of a new threat.
• Police found bomb-making materials and a journal with combat tactics at the Dallas shooter's home.
• Brutal GOP video outlines the FBI's takedown of Hillary Clinton's email excuses.
• Experts: Police use of robot to kill Dallas suspect is unprecedented.
• Here's what we know about the police officers who died in the Dallas shooting.
• Police say officers have been targeted in Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri in the aftermath of police killings of black men.
• 10 more states sued the Obama administration over its transgender bathroom policy.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,121.89 +1.48%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change