Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,159.03 +3.67%

• DJIA 18,814.24 +5.10%

• NASDAQ 5,223.03 +3.37%

• Russell 2000 1,276.64 +9.82%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.12 +7.59%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 114.89 +9.56%

• Wilshire 5000 22,399.10 +4.04%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,027.70 +2.83%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,049.01 +4.62%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 517.03 -2.24%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2858 +6.55%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,188.73 +1.33%

• Transports 8,554.37 +6.02%

• Utilities 626.91 -3.77%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.79 +7.70%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 35.06 -3.41%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,138.96 +1.05%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.71 +.19%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 265,580 +.96%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 529 +914

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.8 +47.4%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 354,399 -12.19%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,854,612 +1.8%

• Total Put/Call 1.11 -19.12%

• OEX Put/Call 1.61 +19.7%

• ISE Sentiment 77.0 -7.41%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +9.61%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.03 -33.67%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.50 -44.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.38 +1.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.38 +5.42%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,905.87 +2.62%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.683 Trillion +.22%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.779 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 38.9 +64.5%

• AAII % Bears 29.3 -14.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 180.74 -.84%

• Crude Oil 43.21 -1.79%

• Reformulated Gasoline 129.81 -5.98%

• Natural Gas 2.62 -5.65%

• Heating Oil 139.60 -2.46%

• Gold 1,222.70 -6.41%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.32 +10.5%

• Copper 251.30 +11.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 176.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.81 USD/Ton +22.78%

• Lumber 319.80 +2.66%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,159.03 -1.31%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.7% -60.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0742 +15.39%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 129.34 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.90 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.6 -1.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 26.0% chance of no change, 84.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14

• US Dollar Index 97.07 +2.25%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,519.81 -1.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.90 +.76%

• Yield Curve 124.0 +25.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% +37.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.415 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.99 +22.84%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 359.0 -.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 20.82 +7.62%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 41.82 +14.98%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 97.41 +2.66%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.64 +3.4%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 749.93 unch.

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 233.93 -1.46%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.75 +.12%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91% +22.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 43.5 -8.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.25 +5.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 77.28 -3.75%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 643.0 -1.55%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 98.52 -1.64%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 267.04 +6.58%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.333 Trillion -.43%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 907.70 unch.

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 259,750 +2,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.57% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 480.50 -1.17%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.1 +.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.7% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.19/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 974.0 +13.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 763.78 +1.44%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -6.25%

• Rail Freight Carloads 272,115 -.48%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +10.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.8%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +14.7%

• Education +14.7%

• I-Banks +14.1%

• Defense +13.1%

• Banks +12.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming -1.0% 

• Foods -1.8%

• Utilities -3.7%

• Hospitals -5.8%

• Gold & Silver -12.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (96)

• TUBE, EXEL, ESTE, IONS, AIMT, XLRN, INSY, CXW, RVNC, KRO, FGEN, SNHY, ECPG, ADUS, WLB, FEYE, GEO, PRI, SNCR, CMC, SUM, OSTK, REGN, ARCB, DERM, CC, AMBC, ATSG, MWA, TASR, TRUE, SEAS, ZLTQ, DTLK, PRIM, PI, LPLA, CRVS, WRLD, NNI, NILE, MFS, MTZ, PODD, DV, BOJA, OSK, HUM, WTW, VSAT, CSRA, SHAK, ACXM, INVA, HI, PLKI, SC, WIFI, CACQ, MPAA, AAOI, ESL, KEYW, LOPE, PFE, SYY, W, HFWA, APEI, JEC, MXL, OSIS, SPXC, BW, ACRS, SLCA, MGM, EGOV, PCLN, MITT, LQ, CECE, KOP, UVSP, FTD, VRTU, ILG, KBAL, NCMI, EPC, NEWR, SJI, FMC, CSWI, EDGE and FMNB

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)

• CVS, DEPO, HR, BRSS, ATRO, KSU, KAR, IFF, CNC, QRVO, PEGI, MNST, ANDE, CPSI, MATX, SSTK, AMN, IPXL, REV, FCE/A, MDRX, CSOD, HTZ, RPD, BNFT, THC, TRIP, ALR, SWHC, PCTY, LTRPA, RGR, HMSY, NPTN and OMF

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Concerns, Oil Decline, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.02 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.96 -.48%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.28 +8.99%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.57 +9.92%

• ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 -17.2%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +24.72%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +99.0% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.98 +.97%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 643.0 +.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.46 +3.88%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.82 +6.93%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 41.82 +6.97%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 267.04 +.58%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.75 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 43.50 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.25 +.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.06 -.41%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .47% unch.

• Yield Curve 124.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $79.81/Metric Tonne +7.68%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.90 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.60 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91% +1.0 basis point
• 85.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 87.1% chance at March 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.1% 2) Oil Service -1.8% 3) Steel -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PRXL, GKOS, KTWO, PRAH, MOH, GWW, UGLD, SCCO, KORS, BUFF, DDS, CEF, GOL, PAM, KOF, MELI, USLV, AU, MAG, HCA, ARLP, CNC, GRUB, ADM, NEM, ALXN and EVH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FE 2) EWT 3) ADM 4) IEF 5) SLV

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLAB 2) PRXL 3) MOH 4) LPNT 5) CNC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.1% 2) Disk Drives +2.0% 3) Defense +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DRYS, PTCT, LOCK, NVDA, ENVA, TRTN, TTD, MMS, OMER, DECK, CPSI, RGNX, TPC, NXST, GM, HQY, SANM, SBGI, HTLD, ENTA, STOR, OMF, STL, SRC, F, PZZA, ELGX, DOC, WCG, MSCC, NVO and SHAK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NVDA 2) CTSH 3) XLP 4) EEM 5) PRU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPWR 2) TASR 3) CMS 4) APA 5) ALXN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +48.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 41.4% of Issues Advancing, 56.3% Declining
• 127 New 52-Week Highs, 142 New Lows
• 52.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0%
• Vix 15.6 +6.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +20.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.93 +219.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Emerging Asia Currencies Drop as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Sink Bonds. South Korea’s won tumbled with the Malaysian ringgit and a global bonds selloff extended into Asian trading amid speculation the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates to cap inflation as a Donald Trump-led administration steps up spending. The won sank to a four-month low and the ringgit slipped to levels last seen in January as Bloomberg’s dollar index held near an eight-month high. Australia’s 10-year bonds fell to their lowest since April, sliding with notes in New Zealand and South Korea. Most Asian stocks gained, led by a rally among banks. Technology shares tracked losses in Apple Inc. and Microsoft Inc. as the winners and losers of Trump’s victory become clearer. Crude oil was headed for its lowest close of the week, weighed down by glut concerns.
• Trump Crushes China M&A.
• China’s Tech Giants Are Cloning the Apple Store. With e-commerce growth slowing, tech leaders such as Alibaba and DJI push harder into local brick-and-mortar.
• Bank of Korea Keeps Rate Unchanged as Political Storm Rages. South Korea’s central bank held its key rate at a record low as policy makers seek to calm markets amid uncertainty caused by the U.S. presidential election and a home-grown crisis that’s shaken President Park Geun-hye. The decision to keep the seven-day repurchase rate at 1.25 percent was projected by all but one of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Royal Bank of Scotland was the sole forecaster for a cut to 1 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump’s Transition Team Works to Form Cabinet. Jeb Hensarling, a foe of financial regulation is floated as a candidate for powerful Treasury secretary role, as process heats up.
• Trump and the Democrats. The lesson: Progressive government can’t be imposed from the top.

Fox News:

• Boss says employees who agree with Trump's rhetoric should resign. (video)

CNBC:

• Donald Trump recognizes the energy renaissance, ConocoPhillips(COP) CEO says. (video) Michael Kors' streak has ended. Shares of Michael Kors dipped more than 4 percent in after-hours trading Thursday, after the handbag maker reported its first quarterly revenue decline since going public five years ago.
• Nvidia(NVDA) shares spike after reporting earnings, revenue beat; firm raises dividend, buyback.

Zero Hedge:

• China 'Devalues' Yuan To Weakest Since Breaking The Peg In 2010. (graph)
• HFT Legend Exits The Business: "It's Harder To Make Money".
• Russell Napier Interviewed: Fiscal Stimulus Comes With Dangerous Baggage – Financial Repression.
• The Unbearable Smugness Of The American Media.
• Calexit - California Secession Petition Gaining Strength After Trump Win.
• Disney(DIS) Misses As ESPN's Subscriber Losses Take A Toll.
• 3 Things: Distortions, Earnings Missed, You're Crazy.
• The Trump Triumph: Dow Hits Record High Amid Bond Bloodbath, Currency Carnage, And Tech Turmoil. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Trump's win has shattered the Democratic Party.
• Donald Trump wins Arizona — two days after the election.

Politico:

• Trump will quit TPP in first days. Within first 200 days his administration could also withdraw from NAFTA unless certain demands are met.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.0 +.5 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 39.0 +2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.21 -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.20%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (BAM)/.51
• (JCP)/-.20
• (ATW)/.60

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for November is estimated to rise to 87.9 versus 87.2 in October.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fischer speaking, German Trade Balance report, OPEC Monthly Update, (DGX) investor day and the (GWW) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.