Monday, December 12, 2016

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:18 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -4.4% 2) Airlines -2.4% 3) Disk Drives -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • UVV, ALXN, CNI, EQT, PERY, VIAB, NOC, NOAH, LMT, BYD, AAXJ, DEPO, BAH, RH, KSU, CNXC, CC, RTN, TIF, GD, FOXA, UA, TGP, SLCA, ACIU and XTLY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DKS 2) LMT 3) ALXN 4) AMTD 5) JWN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DEPO 2) SYNA 3) FINL 4) CF 5) CC
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:05 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.9% 3) Energy +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AKAO, CSOD, PEIX and AKRX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CSOD 2) DVA 3) LMT 4) CBS 5) ARNC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PFE 2) REGN 3) PEP 4) TRV 5) AMD
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:19 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, December 11, 2016

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:13 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Why 2017 Could Be Do-or-Die for China's Bond-Fueled Builders. For China’s highly leveraged real estate developers, 2017 could be the year that the borrowing binge finally catches up with them. Regulators have choked off a key source of funding, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange raising the threshold for property firms to sell bonds on their platform in October. Since then, builders haven’t sold any notes in a market that played host to about 40 percent of their onshore debentures over the past two years, Bloomberg-compiled data show. The curbs couldn’t have come at a worse time, with a record $17.3 billion of developer bonds due next year, and another $27.9 billion in 2018.
  • ECB Delivering a Dovish Taper Reinforces Bets on Euro Parity. The European Central Bank’s latest policy decision is reinforcing calls for the euro to drop to parity against the dollar. The odds of the euro weakening to $1 in the next six months have risen to about 44 percent, from 31 percent on Dec. 7, the day before the ECB decision, options prices show. The euro dropped to $1.0506 on Dec. 5, the lowest since March 2015. It was last below $1 in December 2002.
  • Oil Soars as OPEC Deal With Rivals Buoys Stocks While Bonds Sink. Oil in New York and London jumped more than 5 percent after Saudi Arabia signaled it will cut output by more than was previously agreed amid a weekend deal to tackle oversupply with competitors such as Russia. While the dollar extended gains versus haven currencies ahead of an anticipated interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve, it succumbed to the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. Asian energy stocks jumped as U.S. index futures rallied with copper. Government bonds from Australia to America retreated with gold. A .7 percent advance in energy stocks drove the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up .3 percent as Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index increased .4% in a fifth straight day of gains.
  • Oil Surges as Saudis Eye Deeper Cuts While Non-OPEC Joins Deal. Oil jumped to the highest since July 2015 after Saudi Arabia signaled it’s ready to cut output more than earlier agreed while non-OPEC countries including Russia pledged to pump less next year, strengthening the coordinated commitment by the world’s largest producers to tighten supply. Futures rose as much as 5.8 percent in New York and 6.6 percent in London. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Saturday the biggest exporter will “cut substantially” below the target agreed to last month with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Al-Falih’s comments followed a deal by non-OPEC countries to join forces with the group and reduce production by 558,000 barrels a day next year, the first pact between the rivals in 15 years.
  • OPEC Doomed to Repeat History.
  • Senators Balk at Tillerson Over Putin Before He’s Nominated. Senators signaled that President-elect Donald Trump’s leading choice for secretary of state, Exxon Mobil Corp. chief Rex Tillerson, could have trouble winning confirmation because of his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Being a ‘friend of Vladimir’ is not an attribute I am hoping for from a #SecretaryOfState,” Florida Republican Marco Rubio, who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee that would consider Tillerson’s nomination, said Sunday in a Twitter post signed with his initials. Criticism from Republicans such as Rubio and Senator John McCain as well as key Democrats suggest that nominating the Exxon chairman and chief executive officer could become a messy distraction for the new president. It also would become a proxy fight over Trump’s position that Putin is an effective leader with whom he can reach agreements, a stance widely unpopular among lawmakers in both parties.
  • Is the U.S. Economy Ready for a Fed Rate Hike? (video)
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
People's Daily:
  • China Home Sales, Prices to Decline, Vanke's Yu Says. Chinese home transactions may decline "significantly" in the coming year with property prices drops in cities where prices have risen "overly fast," citing China Vanke President Yu Liang as saying in an interview.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.0 +3.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 36.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.85 +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (PAY)/.29
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for November is estimated to widen to -$115.0B versus -$44.2B in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 9:10 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, more hawkish FOMC commentary, yen strength, technical selling, profit-taking and rising long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 7:01 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Broadening Trump Rally Christens a New S&P 500 Champion Each Day. One of the many remarkable things about the Donald Trump bull market is the breadth of the industries it is benefiting. Consider the week just ended, in which leadership in the S&P 500 Index changed all five days, a real-time rotation that helped send the measure and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to records. Industries as disparate as phone, financial and health-care companies took turns as the best performing group in the broader gauge, with nary a down day in the lot. So powerful is the advance that a measure of price momentum, the relative strength index that measures the speed of gains over the last 14 days, on the Dow average just notched its highest reading since the Internet bubble. The S&P 500 capped a sixth day of gains, its longest rally since June 2014.
  • Non-OPEC Said to Join OPEC in First Global Cut in 15 Years. Russia and several other non-OPEC nations pledged to curb oil production next year at a meeting in Vienna, joining forces with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to end a global glut that’s crashed oil prices and shaken energy-rich economies. The pact -- the first between the two sides in 15 years -- involves a reduction of about 600,000 barrels a day from non-OPEC countries, delegates familiar with the situation said, asking not to be identified before an official announcement later on Saturday.
  • Saudis Signal Deeper Cuts After Deal With Non-OPEC Countries. Saudi Arabia signaled it’s ready to cut oil production more than expected, a surprise announcement made minutes after Russia and several non-other OPEC countries pledged to curb output next year. Taken together, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’s first deal with its rivals since 2001 and the Saudi comments represent a forceful effort by producers to wrest back control of the global oil market, depressed by persistent oversupply and record inventories. "This is shock and awe by Saudi Arabia," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. "It shows the commitment of Riyadh to rebalance the market and should end concerns about OPEC delivering the deal."
  • Exxon CEO Tillerson Said to Be Trump’s Secretary of State Pick. Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson is Donald Trump’s choice as secretary of state, NBC reported on Saturday, a move that would hand top diplomatic powers to a man whose ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin go back almost two decades. The report, already triggering pushback from some lawmakers, couldn’t be immediately confirmed. NBC said its sources, people close to the president-elect’s transition, cautioned that nothing is final until the president-elect makes an announcement. Trump has said he’ll disclose his decision next week.
  • GOP Unity With Trump Faces Test Over Spending Early Next Year. Congress just navigated through the threat of a U.S. government shutdown, but Republicans may have set themselves up for an even bigger showdown next year at the start of Donald Trump’s presidency. The Senate on Friday cleared 63 to 36 a stopgap spending measure to fund the government through April 28, averting a shutdown but putting off a long list of decisions on bills to finance the rest of the fiscal year through October.
  • The Robots Aren't Coming for Your Job. They're Already Here.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • ISIS militants re-enter Syria's historic Palmyra. (video) ISIS militants re-entered the historic city of Palmyra in central Syria on Saturday for the first time since they were expelled by Syrian and Russian forces nine months ago. The activist-run Palmyra Coordination network said the militants had nearly encircled the city and entered its northern and northwestern neighborhoods. The group, which maintains contacts inside the city, said ISIS fighters were approaching the city's UNESCO heritage site as well.
  • At least 20 wounded in twin bomb attack near Istanbul stadium. Two explosions struck Saturday night outside a soccer stadium in central Istanbul Saturday, wounding at least 20 police officers, Turkish officials said. In photographs on social media, smoke was seen rising from behind the newly built Vodafone Arena Stadium, known as Besiktas Stadium, after the local team and neighborhood.
Zero Hedge:
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