Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 29.4% Declining
• 146 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 60.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.4%
• Vix 10.8 -.9%
• Total Put/Call .97 +4.3%
• TRIN/Arms .98 +18.0%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Investors Are Snapping Up Asia's High-Risk Junk Bonds. When it comes to Asia’s high-risk bond market, investors are unfazed by the threat of trade conflicts and currency wars. Asian high-yield issuers are capitalizing on this exuberance, churning out almost $6 billion of junk-rated debt so far this year, the most since the same period in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s not just a pick-up in the amount of primary supply. The issuers have broadened, with South and Southeast Asian players joining the pipeline in the last few weeks.
• Asian Stocks Jump With Dollar on Trump Tax Pledge. Asian stocks rose with the dollar and government bonds slumped after U.S. President Donald Trump promised a plan to overhaul business taxes in the next few weeks. Japan’s Topix rose more than 1 percent and markets in South Korea, Australia and New Zealand advanced after U.S. stocks climbed to records. The dollar headed for its first weekly gain of the year and Treasuries retreated for a second day as Trump’s pledge revitalized trades that had begun to show signs of cracking. Gold slipped while crude extended a rally to a third day. Japan’s Topix rose 1.5 percent at 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo, while South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.8 percent to head for a fourth-straight gain and the best weekly performance of the year. New Zealand’s benchmark added 0.2 percent.
• Trump Renews Call to Mend ‘Obsolete’ Airports, Trains and Roads. President Donald Trump renewed his focus on infrastructure improvement, using a meeting with airline bosses and airport managers to bemoan the country’s “obsolete” transportation system. “Our airports used to be the best,” he said in a White House meeting on Thursday. “Now they’re at the bottom of the rung. We have an obsolete plane system. We have obsolete airports. We have obsolete trains. We have bad roads. We’re going to change all that, folks.” Trump has said he wants to channel as much as $1 trillion to infrastructure investment, promising to repair and upgrade roads, bridges and airports without providing details on how he would achieve his goals. He also contrasted a lack of U.S. high-speed trains with their widespread use in China and Japan, a day before a scheduled meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
• Biggest Stock Market Bull Says Trump Rally’s Just Getting Going. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank AG’s chief global strategist and the most optimisticstock market analyst on Wall Street, says the rally since Donald Trump’s election is only beginning. Many investors are incorrectly attributing $2 trillion of gains in stocks since early November to expectations for stimulus and policy changes, Chadha wrote in a note Thursday. He believes the rally is reflecting nothing more than the removal of uncertainty around the vote. Looking at equities, Chadha wrote that they aren’t expensive on an absolute basis and will extend recent gains as earnings and the economy improve.
• Kushner Family Is Bidding for the Miami Marlins. The Kushner family, relatives by marriage to President Donald Trump, is in talks to buy the Miami Marlins from art dealer Jeffrey Loria, according to people familiar with the discussions. The people asked for anonymity because the talks are private. Marlins spokesman P.J. Loyello didn’t immediately return a phone call or e-mail seeking comment. Wayne Katz, the Proskauer Rose attorney representing the team, declined to comment. A spokesperson for Kushner Cos. declined to comment. Kushner Cos., which was founded by Charles Kushner in 1985, focuses on Manhattan real estate. His son, Jared, is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka and is a senior adviser to the President.
• Brick-and-Mortar Shops Bet on Startup Tech to Bring Back Customers. E-commerce companies are tapping data for clothes and other goods. Old-school rivals want them, too.
• Silence at CSX(CSX) May Signal Takeover by Harrison as Deadline Looms.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Trump Effect: The President’s Wild Start Churns Domestic Politics Around the World. From Germany to Mexico to Iran to Australia, U.S. president looms large; next up, a visit by Japan’s prime minister.
• Stocks Surge on Tax-Cut Signal. Shares rally after president says he would soon make an announcement that would be ‘phenomenal in terms of tax’.

Fox News:

• Appeals court upholds ruling blocking Trump's immigration order. (video)

MarketWatch:

• Goldman’s(GS) No. 1 is so bullish on Wall Street, he coined his own term for it. In Thursday videocast on Goldman’s website, Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive officer and chairman of Goldman Sachs Group GS, said he sees pessimism fading and the prospects for the market brightening. “The change in the market today is from a cycle where we were of very low economic activity, consequently very low interest rates, and a very, very high level of—maybe call it pessimism about where we go. And it feels like we’re changing to one in which it’s going to get growthier. More growth out there, more opportunity and one in which we are getting a bit more optimistic” he said.

CNBC:

• After-hours buzz: P, ATVI, NVDA & more.
• Does this sound familiar? Peer lenders are packaging loans and selling them to Wall Street.
• Here are 25 stocks that will benefit most from Trump cutting taxes.
• Here's why President Trump should say no to the carbon tax.

Zero Hedge:

• Court Of Appeals Unanimously Rules Against Reinstating Trump's Immigration Executive Order: Full Ruling.
• OPEC Production Cut May Need to Be Extended: Oil Ministers. (graph)
• Defiant Trump Lashes Out At Court Of Appeals: "SEE YOU IN COURT!".
• Chinese Banks Begin To Raise Mortgage Rates.
• Trump Signs Three Executive Orders To "Stop Crime", "Crush Drug Cartels", Stop Cop-Killers. (video)
• Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Trump Drops The 'T' Word, Sparks Biggest Short-Squeeze Since Election. (graph)

Busines Insider:

• This is how you know something desperate is going on in China's economy.
• A military spending boom is likely on the horizon.
• Things are starting to unravel in Europe.

Reuters:

• EXCLUSIVE-Trump border 'wall' to cost $21.6 bln, take 3.5 years to build - internal report.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.25 -1.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 29.25 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.17 -.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AXL)/.67
• (MT)/.02
• (CBG)/.81
• (IPG)/.67
• (VTR)/1.02

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for January is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in December. 

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to fall to 98.0 versus 98.5 in January.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for January is estimated at $45.0B versus -$27.5B in December.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade balance report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.90 -4.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.93 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 -2.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.70 -3.01%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -1.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -5.21%

• NYSE Arms .85 -16.16%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.96 -2.28%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 381.0 -.48%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.0 -2.72%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.90 -1.54%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.42 -.91%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.20 unch.
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 134.29 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 50.5 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.20 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .54% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 122.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $83.84/Metric Tonne +.37%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.40 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.10 -2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.70 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0 +3.0 basis points
• 40.8% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 65.1% chance at June 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +180 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my in my retail/tech/biotech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.60%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Utilities -.9% 3) Semis -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRBT, VSTO, DNB, ENSG, SNCR, MOD, SEE, BZH, CAB, CREE, MTRX, SEE, TWTR, FOSL, QLYS, VRNS, OHI and COTY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JWN 2) COTY 3) RCII 4) TWTR 5) KO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNCR 2) DYN 3) STRL 4) CREE 5) GRUB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.6% 2) Computer Hardware +2.3% 3) Airlines +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AQMS, OSUR, BLKB, FGL, ACOR, MDSO, CLF, THS, SCSS, ZEN, DNKN, WWE, CRAY, NSIT, DECK, FLT, LPX, PAYC, PRLB, COTV, TYL, FNHC, IMPV, PCMI, ORBK, BANC, CRAY, FTK, BLKB, MDSO, PAYC, ACOR, THS, TTMI, ARRY, TDC, WWE, UIS, TPX, PXD, SCSS, TWLO, BHE, ROP, LITE, UA, CALD, VSH, K, OC, GT, EEFT, IIVI, OII and MC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRU 2) CIEN 3) TER 4) CMI 5) CLF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PAYC 2) LPX 3) OSUR 4) AKS 5) MU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 66.2% of Issues Advancing, 30.3% Declining
• 117 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 58.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.5%
• Vix 11.1 -2.8%
• Total Put/Call .84 -12.5%
• TRIN/Arms .91 -6.8%