Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,390.14 -.39%

• DJIA 20,884.1 -.57%

• NASDAQ 6,118.74 +.33%

• Russell 2000 1,385.22 -.93%

• S&P 500 High Beta 36.91 -.97%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 128.29 +.76%

• Wilshire 5000 24,736.10 -.60%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,178.22 -.08%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,121.23 -.91%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 563.94 -.52%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3447 +.75%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,455.25 +.30%

• Transports 8,997.93 -2.12%

• Utilities 700.0 -.19%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.60 -1.51%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.07 +2.44%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,197.86 -.14%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,006.16 -.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 287,629 +.28%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 229 -105

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.7 +26.05%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 373,144 -9.39%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,215,531 +1.25%

• Total Put/Call .80 -23.23%

• OEX Put/Call 2.85 +222.37%

• ISE Sentiment 94.0 -9.28%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +58.21%

• Volatility(VIX) 10.70 +.76%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.05 -1.12%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.35 -5.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.99 -3.77%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,435.81 +.90%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.650 Trillion +.06%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.404 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.7 -14.0%

• AAII % Bears 30.2 +.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 181.58 +1.83%

• Crude Oil 47.70 +2.09%

• Reformulated Gasoline 157.37 +3.82%

• Natural Gas 3.42 +4.02%

• Heating Oil 149.14 +2.74%

• Gold 1,228.0 +.07%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 170.77 -.29%

• Copper 252.35 -.79%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 61.38 USD/Ton -.57%

• Lumber 365.80 -4.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,081.88 -.11%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.6% -60.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +5.1% -30.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1477 -3.7% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 184.72 +9.87%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 136.07 +.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.50 -11.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.50 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.10 -.8 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 2.5% chance of no change 97.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 6/14

• US Dollar Index 98.65 -.40%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,581.54 +.06%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.44 +2.02%

• Yield Curve 104.0 +1.0 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.35% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.435 Trillion +.06%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.49 +1.5%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 393.0 -.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 7.87 +6.33%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 20.54 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 45.47 -.32%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.0 unch.

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.41 -5.27%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 154.34 -.32%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 137.66 +.23%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 31.75 +2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.0 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.93 -1.3%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 372.0 -4.04%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.11 -.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 195.78 +1.03%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 145.50 +1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.420 Trillion -.08%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 981.60 -1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 243,500 +500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.05% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 415.70 +2.44%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.70 -1.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.3% -70.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.34/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,012.0 +1.81%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 837.74 +2.34%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.69%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,123 -1.94%

Best Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.8%

• 3D Printing +4.1%

• Semis +3.0%

• Coal +3.0%

• Homebuilding +1.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -2.2% 

• Oil Service -2.2%

• Retail -2.5%

• Paper -2.6%

• Construction -3.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (49)

• WRLD, VRX, PETS, W, DDD, OLED, HDP, NVDA, TDOC, ANF, WIFI, TTEC, REGI, HLF, COHR, BW, DIOD, EA, DPLO, TCMD, NTRA, PEGA, MTSC, LOCO, XON, ZGNX, PRXL, VRNS, SHAK, CTLT, VSTO, RPD, KATE, CHEF, QTNA, MXL, MPMQ, ENTL, APTI, WING, ACLS, PCTY, COTY, LYV, TRCO, RGR, SEAS, CSII and WWW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)

• HTGC, IFF, STOR, UEIC, AL, AHH, BKFS, AXDX, EBIX, TGNA, SBRA, MB, SP, SSP, KITE, ATKR, ACET, TREX, DDS, M, PBYI, IESC, YELP, REV, NVRO, DERM, NXTM, DGII, SNAP, FOSL, HCKT, HTZ, VSI, ARCB and HZNP

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic Optimism, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Oil Service/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.67 +.66%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.28 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.99 -2.20%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.25 +1.46%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -7.62%
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -9.89%

• NYSE Arms 1.16 +1.67%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.50 +.74%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 372.0 -.39%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.70 +2.1%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 7.88 +5.99%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.51 +.22%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.57 -.36%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 137.66 -.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 31.75 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.44 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .87% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.38/Metric Tonne +1.66%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.50 -10.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.50 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.1 +3.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -5.0 basis points
  
• 88.4% chance of Fed rate hike at July 26 meeting, 92.9% chance at Sept. 20 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Construction -1.7% 2) Oil Service -1.6% 3) Retail -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KNSL, CYBR, ALR, JWN, W, DKS, CBI and PSDO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VER 2) CLR 3) JWN 4) JCP 5) AMT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AKTX 2) SSI 3) CSLT 4) CYBR 5) UNXL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.8% 2) Social Media +1.4% 3) Drugs +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CQH, TTD, AYA, AZN, MCFT, PEGA, PCTY, HAIN, BDX, WATT, ASIX, TRTN, BITA, LAUR, LNG, WRLD, NVDA, JD, GSK, VC, MGA, JAG, MOMO, ZBH and BAP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PX 2) DKS 3) HAIN 4) EWC 5) JWN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TIF 2) TTD 3) CC 4) VC 5) STNG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 43.2% of Issues Advancing, 51.1% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 48.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.2%
• Vix 10.5 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .72 -20.9%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -36.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Stocks Are Tumbling Again. Unlike 2015, World Doesn't Care. Global investors are still shaking off a rout that’s erased more than $560 billion from the value of Chinese equities, making them the world’s worst performers since mid-April. Below are four charts showing just how deep the pain has spread in China’s mainland. Outside of the nation’s borders, investors are indifferent to the weakness in the second-largest equity market after the U.S. The MSCI All-Country World Index is near a record and the VIX Index, the so-called fear gauge for U.S. stocks, is close to its lowest level since 1993.

• Asia Stocks Fall on Consumer Woes, Bonds Hold Gain. Asian stocks declined on concern about the appetite of U.S. consumers to keep spending, while bonds and gold held gains. Weakness in U.S. shares followed through to Japan, Australia and South Korea. Disappointing results from Macy’s Inc. and Kohl’s Corp. added to concerns that Americans continue to hold back from buying goods in the world’s largest economy, dragging the S&P 500 Index lower. Gold held gains as Australian government bonds tracked gains in Treasuries. Oil held close to $48 a barrel. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.5 percent.

• In Its Fight Against U.S. Shale Oil, OPEC Risks Lower for Longer. When Khalid Al-Falih arrived at Davos in late January, the Saudi oil minister was exultant. The output cuts he’d painstakingly arranged with fellow OPEC states and Russia were working so well, he said, they could probably be phased out by June. Almost five months later, U.S. production is rising faster than anyone predicted and his plan has been shredded. In a series of phone calls and WhatsApp messages late last week, Al-Falih told his fellow ministers more was needed, according to people briefed on the talks, asking not to be named because the conversations are private. In their battle to revive the global oil market, OPEC and its allies are digging in for a long war of attrition against shale.

Wall Street Journal:

• Donald Trump Planned Firing of James Comey Before Aide’s Letter. President contradicts previous White House account that he acted on advice of Justice Department officials.

Fox News:

• Trump says he wants Russia investigation 'done properly,' was going to fire Comey 'regardless of recommendation'. (video)

MarketWatch:

• Morgan Stanley(MS) says risk of a recession has decreased to 1-in-4 odds.

CNBC:

• Obamacare's crushing cost to some families: 49 percent price hike since 2014, premiums of $14,300. (video)

• From coding to cancer: How AI is changing medicine. (video)

• Nordstrom's(JWN) earnings, revenue top estimates; shares fall on same-store sales miss.

• Buyout firms sitting on record cash are ready to make some deals this year before it's too late.

• Saudis reportedly plan to invest $40 billion in US infrastructure.

Zero Hedge:

• Why Tesla's(TSLA) Solar Roof Is Just Another Giant Taxpayer Gift To Elon Musk.

• Is A Chinese Recession Imminent? Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Ever. (graph)

• NBC Releases Extended Trump Interview: "No Collusion Between Me And The Russians". (video)

• Spot The Odd One Out. (graph)

• Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid But VIX Breaks Another Record. (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.75 +.25 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.5 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.28 +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%. 

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MT)/.27

• (JCP)/-.24

Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in March. 

• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in March.

• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings for April.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for April are estimated to rise +.6% versus a -.2% decline in March.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for April are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated at 97.0 versus 97.0 in April.  

• Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in February
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, (CF) general meeting and the (AET) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.