Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,425.12 +.21%

• DJIA 21,407.60 +.60%

• NASDAQ 6,153.28 +.15%

• Russell 2000 1,412.03 -.32%

• S&P 500 High Beta 37.23 +.70%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 131.72 -2.03%

• Wilshire 5000 25,118.50 +.14%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,194.91 +.42%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,137.47 -.10%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 562.19 -.60%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3255 +1.37%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,467.25 +.01%

• Transports 9,689.91 +2.16%

• Utilities 701.74 -.74%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.88 +2.89%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.18 -.60%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,202.09 +.29%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 994.63 +.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 292,699 -.19%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 45 -97

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 -17.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 327,188 -.48%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,143,111 +1.18%

• Total Put/Call .88 -18.92%

• OEX Put/Call 1.42 +204.17%

• ISE Sentiment 78.0 -17.86%

• NYSE Arms 1.87 +195.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.33 +.52%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.69 +2.42%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.66 +.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.88 +1.29%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,536.25 -.33%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.627 Trillion +.18%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.581 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.6 -.4%

• AAII % Bears 29.9 +11.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 172.47 +.29%

• Crude Oil 44.24 -1.49%

• Reformulated Gasoline 149.64 +1.21%

• Natural Gas 2.86 -5.63%

• Heating Oil 144.57 unch.

• Gold 1,210.70 -2.87%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 177.31 -.74%

• Copper 265.0 -1.25%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 261.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 62.80 USD/Ton -3.31%

• Lumber 352.80 -3.52%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,103.15  +6.33%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.7 +50.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.7% -30.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0784 -5.77% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 381.42 +118.93%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 138.64 +.30%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.50 +14.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.1 +9.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.30 +5.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 7/26

• US Dollar Index 95.98 +.37%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,586.78 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.67 +1.23%

• Yield Curve 99.0 +8.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.39% +10.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.428 Trillion +.10%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.90 +.30%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 370.0 -.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 6.02 -11.2%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.01 +7.07%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.16 +9.28%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 69.78 +1.20%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.46 +19.33%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 177.39 +4.53%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.89 +.21%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 28.0 -1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.50 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.66 +3.25%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 476.0 +3.87%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.71 +3.34%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 205.08 +1.96%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 146.50 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.516 Trillion +1.38%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 946.80 -2.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 243,000 +750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.96% +8.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 423.30 +1.41%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.50 -.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.26/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 829.0 -7.99%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 851.59 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 276,008 -1.84%

Best Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value -.6%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +4.5%

• Homebuilding +3.6%

• Defense +3.0%

• Banks +1.7%

• Semis +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming -3.3% 

• Gold & Silver -3.3%

• Coal -3.6%

• Oil Service -3.7%

• Hospitals -3.7%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• WMAR, HSNI, MORE, PKY, RATE and CISN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• CRZO, SCSS, AOBC, ORLY, DBD and CARA

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.33 -9.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.69 +.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.88 -.88%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.70 -5.82%

• ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -9.3%
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -20.72%

• NYSE Arms 1.78 +19.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 +1.77%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 477.0 +1.61%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.23 +3.32%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 6.02 -2.82%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.99 +1.95%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.96 -1.82%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.89 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 27.75 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.43 +.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 99.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.80/Metric Tonne -3.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.50 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.10 +3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.30 +2.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -2.0 basis points
  
• 27.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 20 meeting, 29.3% chance at Nov. 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +141 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Latrge-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.8% 2) Oil Service -1.5% 3) Steel -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SIMO, OSK, SLCA, RH and SCSS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHK 2) Z 3) LB 4) GPRO 5) PEP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CHKE 2) DMRC 3) ORLY 4) NBR 5) OSK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +3.1% 2) Airlines +2.3% 3) Semis 1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPA, BGNE, AMWD, YUMC, CLB, ARNA, HSNI, SEDG, ABCO, BIB, PSMT, VNTV, DBD, DSLV, LGIH, SRT, DSPG, CBPO, RPM, CYD, MTD, SCWX, GWRE, UVSP and GOL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DHI 2) EA 3) LB 4) SNCR 5) T

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BABA 2) PANW 3) ARNA 4) SPKE 5) DGLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 52.6% of Issues Advancing, 42.8% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
• 45.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.4%
• Vix 11.9 -5.3%
• Total Put/Call .91 -18.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.6 +6.0%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• May to Urge G-20 to Coordinate on Tracking Terrorist Finances. Theresa May will use the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg to call for international coordination to track even small sums of money being transferred between terrorist groups. The British prime minister will argue that new technology is needed to monitor such transactions, as they can provide clues to coming attacks. She’ll say that parts of the international finance system act as “safe spaces” for Islamic State and related groups, and suggest partnerships between police and banks to spot suspicious activity.

• Police Break Up Hamburg Protest on Eve of G-20 With Water Cannons. (video) Hamburg police deployed a water cannon and pepper spray on Thursday against thousands protesting the Group of 20 summit, breaking up the march on the eve of the global gathering in Germany’s second-largest city. As authorities tried to separate about 1,000 people belonging to a masked group and let the protest move forward, demonstrators tossed projectiles and set off fireworks. The already tense situation -- with the crowd shouting: "all of Hamburg hates the police" -- then turned chaotic as police responded with water and pepper spray.

• Samsung Rides Surging Chip Demand to Record Quarterly Profit. Samsung Electronics Co. topped analyst estimates with its best-ever operating profit as global demand for semiconductors remained strong and the new Galaxy S8 flagship smartphone won over customers. Operating income rose to 14 trillion won ($12 billion) in the three months ended June, the Suwon, South Korea-based company said in preliminary results released Friday. That compares with the 13 trillion-won average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue rose to 60 trillion won, compared with the 58.4 trillion won projected.

• Bond Rout Deepens as Asia Stocks Set to Join Drop. Asian equity markets look poised to join a global selloff amid a rout in bonds with investors on edge as central bankers step up talk of tighter policy conditions. Bonds in Australia will likely join declines seen in Treasuries after German yields climbed to the highest level in 18 months following weaker-than-expected demand in a French debt auction. Futures on stock indexes in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong all retreated after a decline in the S&P 500 Index dragged the gauge below its average level over the past 50 days. The dollar weakened. Contracts on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.5 percent in Singapore trading, while futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.4 percent, as did Hang Seng Index contracts.

• Iron Will Slump Back Below $50 on Supply, Top Exporter Says. (video)

• Fed's Fischer Says Fiscal-Policy Uncertainty Denting Investment. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policy may be holding back economic growth because of its negative impact on business investment, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said. A “cautious approach to investment” by U.S. companies “may in part reflect the uncertainty about the policy environment,” Fischer said Thursday in remarks prepared for a speech in Vineyard Haven, Massachusetts. “Mitigating the damping effect of uncertainty by providing more clarity on the future direction of government policy is highly desirable.”

• Qualcomm(QCOM) Seeks Limited Ban on iPhone Shipments, Sues on Patents. Qualcomm Inc. is suing Apple Inc. for patent infringement, the latest volley in an increasingly bitter legal battle over whether Apple should pay for Qualcomm technology used in the iPhone.

• Goldman(GS) Economists See Drug Epidemic Taking Toll on U.S. Economy. “Use of both legal prescription pain relievers and illegal drugs is part of the story of declining prime-age participation, especially for men,” Goldman economists wrote in the study released Wednesday.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Says West Must Defend Its Civilization. U.S. president speaks to thousands of Poles during his second trip to Europe.

• Ships Exporting Iranian Oil Go Dark, Raising Sanctions Red Flags. Analysis reveals type of behavior U.S. officials say could be used to evade sanctions.

• Buffett’s Berkshire Nears Deal to Buy Electric-Grid Giant Oncor for More Than $17.5 Billion. Deal would cement electricity as one of the conglomerate’s largest businesses.

Fox News:

• Trump chides Russia ahead of Putin meeting, though not enough for Dem critics. (video)

CNBC:

• June job growth is expected to be strong, but the focus will be on whether wages are rising. (video)

• Global food prices set two-year high in June as meat, dairy and wheat climb.

• Amazon(AMZN) and Dish Network(DISH) could be exploring potential wireless partnership, according to a report. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• If You Want To Get A New Job, Don't Do This On Social Media.

• CNN's Ratings Collapse As Primetime Shows Draw Less Viewers Than Re-Runs Of "Yogi Bear".

• 14 Facts That Show America's System Of Public Education Deserves An 'F' Grade.

• "They're Selling Everything" - Bonds, Stocks, Oil, Gold, & Dollar All Tumble. (graph)

Business Insider:

• WHO warns of imminent spread of untreatable superbug gonorrhoea.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.25 +.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 22.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.35 -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to rise to 178K versus 138K in May.

• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in May.

• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The G-20 Conference, German Industrial Production report and the UK Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.