Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Hurricane Irma Sparked Florida Consumer Spending Roller Coaster. Consumer spending in Miami and Fort Lauderdale plunged more than 57 percent from a year earlier last weekend as Hurricane Irma caused residents to evacuate or take shelter, according to a report from First Data Corp. Information released by the Atlanta-based company, which tracks shopping activity through the transactions it processes, shows consumption peaked Sept. 5 and then cratered Sept. 8, two days before Irma made landfall. A narrower gauge of retail spending that strips out industries such as restaurants and grocery stores shows an even steeper decline of 72 percent for the period of Sept. 8 to Sept. 10.
  • Stock Rally Stalls in Asia; Dollar Holds Gains. The rally in risk assets took a breather in Asia ahead of key data on China’s economy and U.S. inflation that will offer a guide for global economic growth and central bank actions. The dollar held on to gains triggered by revived hopes for U.S. tax reform. Benchmarks in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney were little changed at the open on Thursday after the S&P 500 Index eked out a fresh record high. The dollar was supported by a slight increase in expectations of a U.S. interest-rate increase this year and President Donald Trump’s push for bipartisan support on tax reform. U.S. consumer-price data due Thursday may sway arguments on the chance of any further tightening this year, while in the U.K. the Bank of England is expected to stand pat in its policy decision. The Topix index fluctuated as of 9:07 a.m. Tokyo time. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Hang Seng Index futures in Hong Kong lost 0.3 percent.
  • Waymo CEO Says Self-Driving Trucks May Precede Taxis. Alphabet Inc.’s(GOOGL) driverless vehicle technology may come to market first in trucks, rather than as an autonomous ride-sharing service. John Krafcik, chief executive officer of Alphabet’s Waymo division, said Wednesday he’s exploring at least two paths for its self-driving systems and software. "Ride-sharing makes a lot of sense for the world," he said at Bloomberg’s Sooner Than You Think conference on Cornell University’s Tech engineering campus in New York City. "For goods transportation, which could travel primarily on highways, there’s a good and compelling use-case there, too. Either of those two might be the first ones you see."
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com: 
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.25 -.25 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.57 -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (ORCL)/.60
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 300K versus 298K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1965K versus 1940K prior.
  • The CPI MoM for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  • Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
Upcoming Splits
  • (HSIC) 2-for-1
  • (NWFL) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Retail Sales/Industrial Production reports, Australia Unemployment report, UK Retail Sales report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BMO Education Conference, CL King Best Ideas Conference and the BofA Merrill Gaming/Lodging Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Goepolitical Concerns, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.6 +.09%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.01 +.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.67 -.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 27.07 -3.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .86 +2.38%
  • NYSE Arms .66 +1.94%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.09 -.78%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 426.0 -2.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 49.25 -1.01%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.15 -2.74%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.97 +.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.32 -1.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.81 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 28.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.61 -.37%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 84.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $76.56/Metric Tonne +.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.50 +2.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.70 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.20 -.9 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 unch.
  • 13.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 44.8% chance at Dec. 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.3% 2) Homebuilding -1.2% 3) Steel -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  •   EFX, LXRX, IRBT, ICPT, VERI, PLSE, TRU, SBNY, WDC, SBLK, Z and ZG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) OCLR 2) JWN 3) EFX 4) SAGE 5) NRG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MNK 2) ZG 3) ICPT 4) EFX 5) LXRX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.5% 2) Retail +1.4% 3) Alt Energy +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SUPV, DLB, LOXO, SIEN, CBRL, BEDU, ZAGG, JWN, TREX, GPRE, ACH, PVAC, BZUN, IDTI, MACK, BRSS, CNC, SFL, NGL, AAAP, IRWD, GDS, UVE, WBT, NEWR, HIIQ, WBT, CHFC. CPE, GPRO, CHUY, OSTK and TACO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) COF 2) IGT 3) TOL 4) JWN 5) PHM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LITE 2) CBS 3) GLOG 4) WLL 5) SQ
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: