Monday, January 15, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 7:44 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Xi Jinping’s Debt Clampdown Has Left a Trail of Dead Projects. A pile of rusty pipes and materials are all that remain of Lanzhou New Area’s tram project. Only a year ago it was a flagship public-private partnership for the planned city in Central China, before it fell victim to President Xi Jinping’s debt clampdown.
  • Lira Falls as Erdogan Warns of Attack on Syria at Any Moment. Turkey’s currency weakened for the first time in three days, extending early losses against the dollar on Monday after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of a potentially imminent offensive against a Kurdish stronghold in northwest Syria, raising the prospect of further escalating tensions with the U.S.
  • Dollar Down, Euro Gains; Asia Stock Futures Steady. Stock-index futures declined in Japan, while contracts for markets in South Korea and Australia signaled a muted open on Tuesday. Focus remains on China’s yuan, trading at the strongest level in more than two years and prompting speculation about possible steps to cool its gains. The euro held gains after comments from ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson on the prospect of a September end to bond purchases. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.6 percent in Chicago trading. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and on South Korea’s Kospi index were little changed. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.1 percent after yesterday coming close to its all-time high reached in 2007. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index remained 0.2 percent higher, with American equity markets poised to reopen Tuesday after the holiday.
  • Great Iron Ore Wave Set to Peter Out as Exporters Hit Targets. Rio Tinto Group forecasts its iron ore shipments will remain flat this year or rise by 3 percent at most, reinforcing market sentiment that a wave of new supply is turning into a trickle. The world’s second-largest exporter expects shipments from Western Australia of between 330 million metric tons and 340 million tons in 2018, the company said Tuesday, confirming guidance published last month. That compares with 330.1 million metric tons recorded last year.
  • GOP Sees Possible DACA Deal as Trump Bemoans Sticking Points. Republican lawmakers held out hope that a deal can be reached allowing young undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S., despite President Donald Trump saying the effort is “probably dead” amid growing tensions about keeping the government funded past Friday. Trump told reporters on his way to a dinner Sunday evening that “I don’t know if there is going to be a shutdown” at the end of the week. Heading to dinner at his Palm Beach, Florida, golf club with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, Trump said that on immigration “we have a lot of sticking points but they are all Democrat sticking points,” adding “they don’t want security at the border.”
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:  
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.75 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.66 -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AZZ)/.51
  • (OZRK)/.55
  • (C)/1.19
  • (CMA)/1.25
  • (UNH)/2.51
  • (ADTN)/.00
  • (CSX)/.56
  • (IBKR)/.40
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for January is estimated to rise to 19.0 versus 18.0 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Congressional recommendation on steel/aluminum import tariffs, UK CPI report, Eurozone CPI report and the Deutsche Bank Auto Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are Slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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Sunday, January 14, 2018

Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 9:07 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, positive earnings outlooks and economic optimism offset profit-taking, technical selling and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 7:47 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Seoul's Painful Stock Tax. Along with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's saber rattling, foreign investors with an eye on South Korea may soon face another problem: higher taxes.
  • Asia Set for Equity Gains on Economic Optimism. Futures on stock indexes in Japan, Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong all rose. U.S. markets are shut Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday after the S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at a fresh all-time high. Retail sales spurred optimism in the American economy and JPMorgan Chase & Co. signaled tax cuts will boost profits, while an acceleration in core inflation bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve’s path of higher rates. The euro remained near a three-year high against the greenback on bets that central bank stimulus will be pared back further in Europe as its economy mends. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, compared with prices from late Friday. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.5 percent.
  • Republicans See Possible DACA Deal Despite Trump's Twitter Posts. Republicans held out hope that a deal can be reached allowing young undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S., despite President Donald Trump saying the effort is “probably dead” amid growing tensions about keeping the government funded past Friday. Trump escalated his rhetoric on immigration in a pair of early-morning Sunday Twitter messages that appeared to move away from what a few days ago seemed to be a potential deal with Democrats and moderate Republicans on legislation to continue the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.
Wall Street Journal:
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Saturday, January 13, 2018

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 7:54 PM
 Bloomberg:
  • Abe in Latvia Calls for Pressure on North Korea. The international community should step up pressure on North Korea to help defuse the stand-off over the isolated country’s pursuit of long-range nuclear weapons, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Saturday during a visit to Latvia. “As the international order founded on the rule of law is being challenged, our two nations need to closely work together to maintain and strengthen the system,” Abe said in a statement after meeting Latvian Prime Minister Maris Kucinskis. The two leaders agreed “on the importance of reinforcing pressure on North Korea,” he said. 
  • Iraq Joins U.A.E., Qatar in Call to Keep Oil Cuts. Iraq joined the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman in calling for OPEC and allied producers to stick with their agreement to cut oil output until the end of the year, despite recent price gains.
  • Tax Reform to Fuel Rotation to Stocks, JPMorgan's Kolanovic Says. U.S. tax reforms may not have finished boosting stocks yet. Asset allocators should stay strongly overweight equities and underweight government bonds in the near term due to the uptick in global growth and boost to risk-on assets from U.S. fiscal reform, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note Friday.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (PYPL), (MA), (IT), (PH), (SHW), (PFE), (ABBV), (LLY), (BEN), (BMY), (JNJ), (AAPL), (FB), (AMZN), (GOOGL) and (AMGN).
Zero Hedge:
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