Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 39.9% of Issues Advancing, 57.2% Declining
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 44.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.4%
• Vix 15.1 +2.4%
• Total Put/Call .85 -8.6%
• TRIN/Arms .95 -13.7%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 +.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 +.25 basis point

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.21 -.08%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.13%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DF)/.10

• (DISCA)/.44

• (DISH)/.69

• (EXPD)/.65

• (FSS)/.20

• (IT)/.58

• (HAIN)/.47

• (JEC)/.87

• (JLL)/.61

• (LOXO)/-.13

• (MCHP)/1.35

• (FSS)/.20

• (WLH)/.20

• (CA)/.59

• (CLVS)/-1.37

• (EA)/1.16

• (FOSL)/-.96

• (JAZZ)/2.78

• (MAR)/1.22

• (MNST)/.39

• (OXY)/.70

• (OSTK)/-.87

• (PZZA)/.62

• (RGR)/.80

• (DIS)/1.70

• (WEN)/.10

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to fall to 104.5 versus 104.7 in March.
  

 10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for March are estimated to rise to 6100 versus 6052 in February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Exports/Imports report, President Trump speech on drug pricing, WV Republican Primary, $31B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Wells Fargo Industrial/Construction Conference, Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Staples Forum, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference and the (RHT) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 59.4% of Issues Advancing, 36.6% Declining
• 77 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 42.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1%
• Vix 15.1 +2.0%
• Total Put/Call .66 -30.5%
• TRIN/Arms .83 +33.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Giuliani Leans Against Trump Walking Into Mueller's `Trap'.  

• U.S. Crude Edges Toward $70 as Traders Brace for Iran Decision.

• Asian Stocks Mixed at Open; Dollar Pares Gains: Markets Wrap. Equity benchmarks in Japan fluctuated and gained in Australia. Hong Kong futures climbed alongside S&P 500 Index futures. The MSCI Asia Pacific declined for a second consecutive week last week. Oil hovered closer to $70 a barrel as traders braced for a re-imposition of some U.S. sanctions on Iran. Treasuries were little changed. Topix index fell 0.1 percent as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7 percent. Hang Seng Index futures gained 0.7 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Mueller Probe Might Have to Go Dark for Midterm Elections. 

• Trump Lawyers Take Aggressive Stance on Mueller Investigation.

• Privacy Is Dead. Here’s What Comes Next.

• Unemployment Plunge Raises Stakes in Fed’s Goldilocks Conundrum.

• Companies Trying to Deal With Discrimination Face Backlash.

• State Budgets Get Lift From Economy, Tax Bill.

• Solving the Riddle of the Eurozone’s Missing Inflation—in 11 Charts.

• Labor Strikes and Worker Protests Erupt Across Iran: ‘This is Slavery’.

• Why Fund Managers, Accountants May Rest Easier This Weekend.

• Chinese Telecom Seeks Reprieve From U.S. Ban on Parts Sales.

• Scientists in China Race to Edit Crop Genes, Sowing Unease in U.S.

• Saudis Move to Push Oil Prices Higher, in Break From Past Policy.

Fox News:

• Ailing senator asks Obama, Bush to speak at his funeral, wants Pence to attend but not Trump.

• Devin Nunes: AG Jeff Sessions should be held in contempt of Congress.

CNBC:

• Tech's momentum could continue as Buffett buy helps give Apple its best week since 2011.

• How to block the annoying robocalls that you keep getting.

• US-China trade talks end with strong demands, but few signs of a deal.

• Wall Street's first analyst to cover bitcoin is now urging caution on the cryptocurrency.

• ‘I'm not a real positive guy, but I’m starting to turn more positive’ on stocks: Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Happy Birthday Karl: Top 10 Goals Of Marx' Manifesto Accomplished In America.

• Social Media, Not Religion, Is The Opium Of The People.

• FBI Refuses To Pursue Personal Strzok-Page Texts; Grassley Goes Nuclear.

• "That Link Has Been Broken": Morgan Stanley Makes A Stunning Claim About China's Credit Impulse.

• 2018: When Orwell's '1984' Stopped Being Fiction.

• Watch Drone Taxi "SureFly" Lift Off In Its First Manned Flight.

• "Real Socialism" Has Indeed Been Tried... And It's Been A Disaster.

• Iran Warns Trump Of "Historic Regret" If US Withdraws From Nuclear Deal, Has "Plan To Counter Any Decision".

Business Insider:

• Giuliani: Trump could plead the 5th in the Russia investigation.

• Psychedelic drugs appear to fundamentally reorganize the brain — and they're starting to turn into approved treatments.

• The smallest oil producer in the Gulf needs a ridiculously high oil price to break even.

• A hidden gauge of the jobs market is approaching historic lows — and it reveals the most underrated story of the US economy.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 -1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.62 +.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.84%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (CTSH)/1.06

• (GCI)/.03

• (LPX)/.69

• (PETS)/.47

• (SYY)/.63

• (TSN)/1.31

• (CENT)/.84

• (HTZ)/-1.27

• (MOS)/.27

• (MYGN)/.27

• (ZG)/.06

Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for March is estimated to rise to $16.0B versus $10.601B in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, NAFTA talks in Washington, China Foreign Reserves report, German Retail Sales report, Morgan Stanley Energy Conference and the (PSMT) monthly sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Reuters. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on yen weakness, oil gains, less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, economic optimism, short-covering and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Giuliani Suggests Trump Will Pull Out of Iran Nuclear Deal. Rudy Giuliani suggested that Donald Trump plans to pull the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear agreement, pointing to the presence in the president’s inner circle of new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and long-time foreign policy hawk John Bolton. “We have a president who is tough,” Giuliani said Saturday at a conference organized in Washington by the Organization of Iranian-American Communities. “We have a president who is as committed to regime change as we are.”

• Nine Days, One Signal: U.S. Economy Is Doing Fine If Not Great.  

• Hedge Funds Curb Bets on Oil Rally Just Before Price Nears $70.

Wall Street Journal:

• Politics in the Pews: Anti-Trump Activism Is Reviving Protestant Churches—at a Cost.

• Flood of Trademark Applications From China Alarms U.S. Officials.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (XOM).

• Had bearish commentary on (WWW).

MarketWatch.com:

• After earnings barrage and data, stock-market moves now hinge on global trade. 

Fox News:

• White House slams China's demands to US airlines.

CNBC: 

• Warren Buffett: US and China will avoid an 'extremely foolish' trade war.

• Warren Buffett says bitcoin is 'probably rat poison squared'.

• Warren Buffett: 'We would love to see Apple go down in price,' endorses its stock buyback.

• The value of what Buffett once called 'financial weapons of mass destruction' is plunging.

Zero Hedge:

• FBI Chaos: Comey Caught In Lie Over Flynn Investigation; Anti-Trump "Lovebird" Lisa Page Quits.

• NSA Spied On 534 Million US Calls In 2017, Up Sharply From 2016.

• Elon Musk Has A "Next Level" Warning For Tesla Shorts: "Short Burn Of The Century Coming Soon".

• Leaked Transcripts Reveal Courtroom Showdown Between Manafort Judge And Mueller Attorney.

• Yemeni Rebels Begin Attacking Saudi Oil Infrastructure: You Know What That Means.

• US Navy Laser Cannons Could Replace Gatling Guns, Missiles On Warships.

• Facebook(FB) Co-Founder Wants To Slap $3 Trillion Tax On Rich To Pay For Universal Basic Income.

• Dramatic Drone Footage Shows Fountains Of Lava From Mount Kilaeua Eruption.

• Schizophrenic Silver: Biggest ETF Inflow In 2 Years (After Major Outflow).

• Weekend Reading: Are You Not Entertained?

• Stocks Bounce On Biggest Short-Squeeze Since Brexit, But Banks & Bullion Bruised.

Business Insider:

• Tensions between NATO and Russia are rising, and now the US is reactivating a fleet to patrol the Atlantic.

• Trump is winning and heads are spinning as North Korea talks get off to a running start.

• All the ways that Tesla(TSLA) could go bankrupt in the next year.

• WALL STREET PAYDAY: Dealmakers could pull in $330 million in fees from takeover frenzy.  

• Cambridge Analytica's data may be sold to the highest bidder during bankruptcy.