Friday, May 03, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,943.95 +.14%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 26,510.17 -.08%
  • NASDAQ 8,152.18 +.08%
  • Russell 2000 1,609.82 +1.08%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 43.99 -.09%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 163.23 +.52%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,345.18 +.27%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,591.32 -.09%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,254.30 +.44%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 590.26 +.77%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,122.33 -.30%
  • NYSE Technology 1,998.89 +.71%
  • Transports 10,955.02 +.77%
  • Utilities 783.03 +.12%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 81.20 +.58%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 44.21 +.56%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,228.22 +.08%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 962.98 +.08%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 255,359 +.26%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 19 -127
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 -37.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 547,359 +6.23%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,139,213 +2.25%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -14.5%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.18 +27.59%
  • ISE Sentiment 90.0 -12.0%
  • NYSE Arms .90 +9.41%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.09 +3.53%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.42 +.57%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.91 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.87 -3.91%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,354.72 -.85%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.072 Trillion +.71%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.993 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 39.0 +16.4%
  • AAII % Bears 21.3 +5.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 181.77 -1.56%
  • Crude Oil 62.0 -1.32%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 202.62 -.24%
  • Natural Gas 2.56 +1.19%
  • Heating Oil 207.19 +1.52%
  • Gold 1,280.50 -.57%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 180.26 -2.73%
  • Copper 281.70 -2.29%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 307.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.81%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.62%
  • Lumber 350.10 +.17%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 858.24 -1.78%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.67% -100.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.1% -30.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0426 +14.46%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 100.16 -.44%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 173.51 +.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.10 +5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.40 +16.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.40 -5.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 96.8% chance of no change, 3.2% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/19
  • US Dollar Index 97.50 -.55%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,635.77 -.16%
  • Bitcoin/USD 5,679.48 +11.67%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.21 -.01%
  • Yield Curve 19.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.53% +2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.851 Trillion -1.0%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.72 +10.72%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.49 -.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.5 -7.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.07 -2.16%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.45 -3.18%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.75 +1.19%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.21 +2.11%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.92 -.69%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.21 +.29%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91% -6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -2.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.76 +.31%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 456.0 +2.0%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.62 -2.77%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 187.63 -3.66%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.789 Trillion -.28%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,065.0 -.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -6,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.14% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 407.20 -4.32%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 60.4 -.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.50% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.90/gallon +.06/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1032.0 +16.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 802.27 +.12%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265,874 +.66%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +1.0%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Homebuilding +2.6%
  • Disk Drives +2.4%
  • Social Media +2.4%
  • Airlines +2.3%
  • Shipping +2.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Construction -2.2% 
  • Gaming -2.3%
  • Oil Service -4.2%
  • Gold & Silver -4.8%
  • Coal -5.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)
  • ZIXI, WAIR, CBLK, UCTT, BRKR, WW, CCS, NWL, LPLA, PODD, BLDR, MNST, FLOW, SSYS, CYRX, XRAY, BE, DATA, ENPH, IDCC, VIAV, WSC, TACO, KBR, CONE, PRFT, GMS, COHU and FRPT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)
  • UTHR, MSGN, FLR, VIVO, AXL, HRTX, POST, FTNT, ALNY, FLDM, TDC, EBS, STAA, ANET, CTSH and REGI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.16 -8.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.22 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.87 -1.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.34 -4.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -8.91%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -19.4%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -7.84%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.71 -2.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 456.0 +.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.62 -1.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.5 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.85 +.59%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.56 -3.99%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.21 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.53 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 19.50 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.10 +3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.40 +10.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.40 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 -4.0 basis points
  • 10.9% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 25.5% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +226 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/medical/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long