Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +5.4% 2) Oil Service +3.2% 3) Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZYME, PAAS, ORCL, ZYXI, HCP, THOR, UGLD, FNKO, DTIL, SSRM, VTR, TLRY, TALO, CMC, WLL, IIPR, ARQL and TALO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RHT 2) SYMC 3) MAS 4) ORCL 5) RSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ORCL 2) CMC 3) VRA 4) COMM 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 77.7% of Issues Advancing, 20.0% Declining
• 268 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 56.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.5%
• Vix 14.2 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .90 +2.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -6.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:       

• Treasury 10-Year Yield Slides Below 2% for First Time Since 2016. 

• U.K. Tories Prepare to Pick Final Two Candidates to Succeed May.

• Dell, HP, Intel and Microsoft Join Forces to Oppose Trump Tariff.

• Trump Believes He Has the Authority to Replace Powell at Fed.

• Treasuries Extend Gains on Fed; Asia Stocks Mixed. Treasuries extended gains while Asian stocks were mixed after the Federal Reserve struck a dovish tone in its latest policy statement. U.S. futures rose. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 2% to its lowest since November 2016. Stocks posted modest gains in Tokyo and were little changed in South Korea and Australia. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index rose as the Fed indicated an increased readiness to cut interest rates and the yield on two-year Treasuries slumped. The dollar slipped. Next up comes the Bank of Japan policy decision, where government-bond yields remained under pressure. Topix Index rose 0.5% as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. Kospi Index fell 0.1%. S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.3%.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. 

• Fed Loses Patience, Asia Hikers Turn Cutters, Rate Bets: Eco Day.  

• Bond Market Screams at Fed: Don't Dawdle on Those Rate Cuts.  

• Oil Finds Support on Tighter U.S. Supplies, Robust Gas Demand.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Hints at Possible Cuts.

• One of the Most Powerful Women in Hedge Funds Doesn’t Run Money.

• Women Working Longer, Sleeping Less, Labor Department Finds.

• The Future of Housing Rises in Phoenix.

• YouTube Weighs Major Changes to Kids’ Content Amid FTC Probe.

• Union Pacific Says Uncertainty, Harsh Weather Driving Down Rail Shipments.

• Oracle’s Revenue Beats Targets in Latest Quarter.

Fox News:

• 2nd Dem staffer charged in doxing plan amid Kavanaugh confirmation fight.

MarketWatch.com:

• Tim Mullaney: How the Fed got it right by showing patience.

CNBC:

• Here’s what the stock market liked from the Fed.

• Slack reference price set at $26 per share: NYSE.

Zero Hedge:

• "Bond King" Gundlach Says Biden's "Time Has Passed", Warns Trump Could Pull Out Of 2020 Race.

• "We're All Socialists Now!".

• Harley Davidson Partners With Local Firm To Build New Bikes In China.

• CA Voters Not Happy With Free Medical For Illegals.

• Gold Spikes As 10Y Yield Plunges Below 2.00% For First Time Since Nov 2016.

• There Is Now A Real-Time Index Of US-China Trade Deal Odds.

• Dovish Fed Sparks Safe-Haven Scramble For Bonds & Bullion As Traders Dump Dollar.

Business Insider:   

• 'Facebook is already too big and too powerful': Senate to dig into Libra, the tech giant's new crypto project.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.50 -3.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -4.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.00 +.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.57%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CMC)/.61

• (DRI)/1.73

• (KR)/.71

After the Close:

• (CGC)/-.35

• (KFY)/.88

• (RHT)/.86

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The 1Q Current Account is estimated at -$124.3B versus -$134.4B in 4Q.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 220K versus 222K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1680K versus 1695K the prior week. 

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for June is estimated to fall to 10.7 versus 16.6 in May.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoJ meeting, BoE meeting, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, Bloomberg US Economic Expectations Index for June, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Piper Jaffray Heartland Summit, (QGEN) investor day, (MRK) investor day, (TSN) investor day and the (NUE) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Metal&Mining/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.14 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.43 +.12%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.75 -3.67%

• ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -42.7%
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -5.43%

• NYSE Arms .99 +33.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.14 -3.69%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 634.0 +.27%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.70 -3.38%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -10.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.72 -3.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.59 -2.89%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.71 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 22.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +3.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.87 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.17% -3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 26.75 +7.75 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.30 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.4 +5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.50 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -2.4% 2) Gaming -1.1% 3) Social Media -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GPRE, KURA, BHVN, ZYME, DD, PLT, NCR, ENR, YY, RUN, OLN, MTCH, RIO, BPT, GTLS, RRR, EPC, ESTC and ENPH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) ITCI 3) EMR 4) Z 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QUIK 2) HDSN 3) ENR 4) BYND 5) MTSI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +5.0% 2) Shipping +1.2% 3) I-Banking +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LZB, AXTA, ZYXI, AAXN, ADBE, JBL, NSSC, WGO, IQV, OSW, ARCH, GTHX, X and AGN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JWN 2) KMB 3) XME 4) SRPT 5) CTXS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JBL 2) MLNT 3) ADBE 4) AKTX 5) NTGR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume