Saturday, August 01, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (AN), (GPI), (OSTK), (CWH)(KMX), (NEM), (GOLD).
  • Had bearish commentary on (TRUP).
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
The Epoch Times:

Friday, July 31, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Coronavirus 2nd Wave Worries, Global Recession Fears, Technical Selling, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.2 +5.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.42 +.63%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.9 +9.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69 .0 -77.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 +5.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -28.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.77 +1.34%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 851.59 -1.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.25 +.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.75 +.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  73.07 -1.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.25 -.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.91 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.25 -3.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.13 -.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 41.0 -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 246.8 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 166.30 +37.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.1 +5.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +98 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -211 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -2.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gaming -5.2% 2) Oil Service -3.8% 3) Airlines -3.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BZH, CPT, CROX, HCAC, BAND, LRN, DSPG, CAT, ONEM, POWI, GOOG, EXAS, SYK, DVA, CRS, GILD, HTH, CVX, SGEN, LTC, XLNX, SDGR, BTAI, KRA, EXPE, AIMT, MITK, FORM, NWL, FIZZ, FLS, CHEF, ZEN, UAA, BEAT, NATI, NTUS, SHAK, SKYW, WRTC, XPO, SPAQ, PRO, HRC, BLNK and KODK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PTEN 2) EWH 3) F 4) EFA 5) GILD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RFP 2) PRO 3) CVX 4) FCAU  5) PBI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Internet +.6% 3) Computer Hardware +.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PINS, NXGN, EBS, SEM, DLX, BRKS, FB, ATUS, SC, BNFT, AAPL, TWOU, TENB, VCYT, BERY and CHD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EXPE 2) COOP 3) EGHT 4) KODK 5) MARK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PINS 2) JCI 3) AAPL 4) PEG 5) CHTR
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75%  to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.42 +.10%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.82%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.26%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ABBV)/2.20
  • (AXL)/-2.03
  • (BAH)/.86
  • (CAT)/.72
  • (CBOE)/1.24
  • (CBRE)/.41
  • (CHTR)/2.66
  • (CVX)/-.89
  • (CHD)/.62
  • (CL)/.69
  • (XOM)/-.60
  • (FCAU)/-.87
  • (GT)/-2.03
  • (IDXX)/1.17
  • (ITW)/.71
  • (ITT)/.37
  • (JCI)/.48
  • (LYB)/.69
  • (MRK)/1.05
  • (NWL)/.18
  • (PSX)/-.84
  • (SNA)/1.83
  • (UAA)/-.40
  • (VFC)/-.68
  • (WY)/.01
After the Close:
  • (BCC)/.46
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -4.2% decline in May.
  • Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +5.2% versus a +8.2% gain in May.
  • The PCE Core Deflator MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  • The Employment Cost Index for 2Q is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in 1Q.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to rise to 44.5 versus 36.6 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Spain GDP report  could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.