Friday, August 14, 2020

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:       
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75%  to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 40.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.39 -.04%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +7.5% gain in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +7.3% gain in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.7% gain in June.
  • Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity for 2Q is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -.9% decline in 1Q.
  • Preliminary 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +6.9% versus a +5.1% gain in 1Q.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +5.4% gain in June.
  • Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 70.3% versus 68.6% in June.
  • Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +7.2% gain in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for June is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -2.3% decline in May.
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for August is estimated to fall to 71.9 versus 72.5 in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP report and Bloomberg US Economic Survey for August could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Coronavirus Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.78 -2.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.02 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.17 -.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 -3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99 .0 +1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .60 -21.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 -24.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.93 +.83%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 754.85 -.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.82 +3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.05 -1.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.78 +1.70%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.87 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.5 +.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 50.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.74 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 250.3 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 206.50 -2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -24 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -56 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer staple/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.5% 2) Banks -1.8% 3) Disk Drives -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NTAP, HASI, MU, OFC, AHCO, COOP, IIVI, VIE, FBC, LYFT, PING, PRTS, HFC, CRS, PFSI, PI, MNRL, SPTN, CSCO, VRM, ADVM and VREX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SWN 2) IBB 3) EMB 4) CSCO 5) XRT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LYFT 2) DE 3) ATI 4) MU  5) BJ
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.9% 2) Alt Energy +1.7% 3) Software +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GRWG, AZPN, MCRB, RVLV, SHLL, WCC, EXPI, ONEM, FLGT, BE, PLUG, SRNE, SDGR, SPT, NVAX, DDOG, TDOC, ETSY, APPS, CACI, EAT, VRT, PSNL, TSLA and GPRE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PSTG 2) GRWG 3) CLNY 4) GLUU 5) FIT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GRWG 2) RVLV 3) NVAX 4) EAT 5) MGIC
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: