Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 45.8% of Issues Advancing, 50.8% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 49.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 248.0 +13.0 points
• Vix 26.3 -.4%
• Total Put/Call .77 -19.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 +22.9%

 

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 +2.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.84 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 218.0 -16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.95 +.42%
• FTSE 100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Current Account Deficit for  2Q is estimated at -$160.0B versus -$104.2B in 1Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for August is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.4% gain in July.
• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Sept. is estimated to rise to 75.0 versus 74.1 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Price report and the (MOS) analyst presentation could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminished Central Bank Stimulus Hopes, China Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.4 +5.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 177.0 -150.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.47 -.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.1 +7.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -32.0 points

• Total Put/Call .88 +11.4%

• NYSE Arms .73 +5.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.3 +2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 811.52 +.26%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.45 +1.96%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 151.25 n/a
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  57.84 +1.61%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.15 +2.1%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.07 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 +3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  94.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 540 +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.78 USD/Metric Tonne +1.73%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 170.1 -7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.2 -4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Internet -2.8% 2) Alt Energy -2.2% 3) Restaurants -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TFX, DOCU, QTS, MKC, LPRO, AIG, AVNS, PYPL, UBER, INTU, CONE, VRS, MDLA, CMG, EBAY, COUP, ADSK, SMAR, SMTC, CHWY, CLDR, KHC, W, ANGI, DXCM, AMT, PSNL, RCM, DCP, SPLK, CVNA, AA, DEI, TSLA, PING, PLCE, VRM, MRSN, OSTK, NLS, TTD, CNK, PGNY, CYRX, ALRM, TWOU, ILMN, RNG, FRTA, INO and PLAY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PLAY 2) ILMN 3) FSLR 4) EWW 5) RNG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INO 2) NNOX 3) LL 4) NKLA  5) LVS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.2% 2) Agriculture +.1% 3) Construction unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MLHR, KNL, SCS, TSE, FMCI, APOG, CATM, PENN, SBE, WRK and MAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PUMP 2) MLHR 3) WRK 4) GNW 5) FITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APOG 2) VCNX 3) PVCT 4) INTEQ 5) DPZ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 37.9% of Issues Advancing, 58.8% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 50.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 203.0 -125.0 points
• Vix 27.0 +3.8%
• Total Put/Call .88 +11.4%
• TRIN/Arms .77 +11.6%