Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -3.3% 2) Alt Energy -3.1% 3) Oil Service -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• X, SHAK, LITE, AZEK, AFRM, JACK, GDRX, ABNB, RNG, HRTX, GRWG, SQ, UTZ, DDD, IKNA, ARQT, SLP, LQDT, REAL, RBLX, UPST, ONTF, OPEN, MEG, EAR, MGTA, MASS, HAE, CRIS, ONEM, BMBL, FLR, PCT, MARA and POSH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CWB 2) OIH 3) SKT 4) EQT 5) BOX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FLR 2) CAN 3) PCT 4) EBON 5) RIDE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +2.2% 2) Steel +1.9% 3) Industrials +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMC, VRS, MCFT, SI, BOOT, ARRY, GO, LRCX, PTON and YETI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BOX 2) GCI 3) FNKO 4) VG 5) MDLZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BW 2) NUE 3) LOW 4) YETI 5) CVAC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 76.0% of Issues Advancing, 27.0% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 84.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,819.0 +228.0 points
• Vix 23.1 -16.2%
• Total Put/Call .97 -3.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +28.7%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Israel-Gaza Crisis Drags Biden Into Vortex He Sought to Avoid.
• Asian Cities Face Greatest Environmental Risks, Report Shows.
• Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Drop; Yields Jump on CPI: Markets Wrap.  
• Fed Optimism, China’s Costs Soar, Aussie Spending Spree: Eco Day.
• ‘Transitory’ U.S. Inflation Pressures Seen Lasting for Months.
• ‘Arm Waving’ Response to Hackers Makes Oil Industry Easy Prey.
  
• Panic Buying of Gas Seen Hundreds of Miles From U.S. East Coast.  
• Traders Ratchet Up Fed-Hike Bets for 2022 on Hot Inflation.
• Economists Struggle to Forecast U.S. Recovery With Huge Misses.
• Record Surge in Used-Car Prices Is Key Culprit in Inflation Jump.  
• Wall Street Pondering Ugly Outcomes for Sky-High Tech Shares.  
• Hedging Gets Frantic as Puts Soar Amid Stock Market Hammering.

Wall Street Journal:

• Cheating at School Is Easier Than Ever—and It’s Rampant.
• Is the American Work Ethic Dying?
• Powell Gets His Inflation Wish.
• Cathie Wood’s ARK Stumbles as Tech Trade Unwinds.

Fox News:

• Biden takes questions, even though he's not 'supposed' to.
  

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Bumble, Sonos, Vroom & more.
• Colonial Pipeline restarts after hack, but supply chain won’t return to normal for a few days.
• Dubbed ‘WoodStocks,’ Jim Cramer sees Cathie Wood’s top tech picks heading lower.
• CDC OKs Pfizer’s Covid vaccine for use in teens, clearing way for shots to begin Thursday.

MarketWatch.com:          

• Beware heightened risks of ‘fragility shocks’ in a market too dependent on the Fed, BofA warns.

Zero Hedge:

• 120 Retired Generals, Military Officers Sign Letter Warning Of Conflict Between Marxism And "Constitutional Freedom".
• Israel's Security Cabinet Approves Expanding Gaza Strikes As Riots Spread In Jewish-Arab Cities.
• US Spends 90% More Than It Collects In First 7 Months Of Fiscal 2021.
• Colonial Pipeline Restarts Operations After Ransomware Attack.
• CDC Credibility 'Eroding' According To Ex-Obama Official.
• U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers To "Resume" Border Wall Construction.
• Tesla Suspends Bitcoin Payments Over "Concerns About Environmental Impact"
• US Considering Foreign Tankers To Move Domestic Fuel Supplies.
• "I'm Not At All Excited": China's Digital Yuan Is Turning Into A Giant Flop.
• 'Did Joe Biden Put Hunter In Charge?': Trump Rips 'Long And Horrible Gas Lines'.
• Liz Cheney Ousted From Leadership Post By House Republicans.
• Taibbi: Reporters Once Challenged The Spy State. Now, They're Agents Of It.
• Stagflation Scare Sparks Carnage In Crypto, Stocks, & Bonds.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• In Midst of Massive Gas Shortages Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer Orders Shutdown of Pipeline.
• WOW! Same FBI that Pushed Trump-Russia Hoax for 3 YEARS then Exaggerated Russia 2020 Election Threat — NOW Blames Russia for Pipeline Hack.
• Indian Health Ambassador Gets COVID Vaccine Live on TV to Show Everyone How Safe It Is – Dies 2 Days Later.
• Biden’s Pompous Climate Envoy John Kerry During Hearing, “I am Flying Commercial and Have a Flight That I Have to Make” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• US Will Remove Xiaomi From Blacklist, Reversing Action by Trump.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.0 +4.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,559.0 -29.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.60 -3.15%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.53%.

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/13.28
• (GOOS)/-.12
• (PLCE)/-.21
• (YETI)/.21
  

After the Close:

• (ABNB)/-.95
• (COHR)/1.14
• (COIN)/NA
• (DDS)/2.16
• (DASH)/-.14
• (DIS)/.27
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.0% gain in March.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 490K versus 498K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3650K versus 3690K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CP)/5-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Japan Money Supply Data, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Credit Suisse Renewables/Utilities Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Inflation Worries, Escalating Mid-East Tensions, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.9 +23.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,644.0 -265.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.88 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 +.21%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.4 +1.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +2.0%

• NYSE Arms .78 +16.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.0 -.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.89 +1.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.14 +3.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.52 +3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.38 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.10 -.70%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 146.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 226.60 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.5 +29.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 162.0 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.80 +8.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 +3.0 basis points
• 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -175 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -4.5% 2) Steel -4.0% 3) Semis -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FSK, RXT, BIGC, GSBD, AINV, CCXI, RA, FCX, PFLT, ELY, BRP, BX, AVNS, CLF, ABR, NHI, DKNG, AXTA, JAMF, ENTG, UBER, RQI, SNOW, DHI, CNR, X, PDI, MAIN, RBLX, BLDR, PCI, NARI, PFN, MTH, AMAT, PAR, PLTR, CVNA, ARQT, SHAK, PTY, BMBL, LPX, SHLS, GTBP, NVAX, KBH, SPCE, AFRM, REKR, OPEN, DDD, RVLV, LMND, LITE, GO, SLQT and ARRY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JNK 2) EWJ 3) AMLP 4) WY 5) SSSS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ARRY 2) PCT 3) CYDY 4) NVAX 5) GO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume