Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -16.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,193.0 +348.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.32 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.27 -1.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.0 -4.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +33.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -5.0%

• NYSE Arms .46 -54.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.24 -2.46%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 432.55 -.65%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.24 -3.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.29 -.92%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.11 -1.95%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.25 -.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.25 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.34 +.38%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 198.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 -20.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 158.0 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 71.70 +1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 unch.
• 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +211 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/tech/biotech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -.3% 2) Shipping -.3% 3) Paper unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALKT, LEGN, CRC, SI, RSI, TVTX, STKS, HRTX, VOXX and PLT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IYR 2) ELY 3) ET 4) SPXU 5) LB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACB 2) KRMD 3) BLFS 4) FGEN 5) RIDE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +4.5% 2) Airlines +4.0% 3) Disk Drives +4.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DASH, CRCT, AVIR, VVNT, DDS, AMWL, PRAX, UPST, VERX, PCT, AFRM, M, RAD, FUBO, TREE, PLUG, SNOW, HAE, DKNG, TLS, GDRX, APPN, NEWR, HOOK, EB, POSH, GPMT, NTNX, GMRE, NTRA, AMC, SHAK, MPC, BSY, REAL, UA, AVTR, GOLF, ASH, EAR, ANGI and MXIM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SEEL 2) UA 3) LNC 4) FLR 5) LB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DASH 2) DDS 3) VVNT 4) BNGO 5) SNOW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 80.0% of Issues Advancing, 16.9% Declining
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 85.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,171.0 +326.0 points
• Vix 19.7 -15.0%
• Total Put/Call .87 -12.1%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -40.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,775.0 -70.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.0 -.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.40%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +9.8% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for April is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +8.4% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +8.2% gain in March.
• The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.2% gain in March.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.9% gain in March.
• The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +2.1% gain in March.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.4% gain in March.
• Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 75.0% versus 74.4% in March.
• Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.7% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to rise to 90.2 versus 88.3 in April.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for May is estimated to rise to 3.5% versus 34% in April.

Upcoming Splits

• (CP)/5-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Spain CPI report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for May and the (Y) investor meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, CDC Mask Guidelines, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 -10.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,714.0 +125.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.68 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.49 +.42%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.2 -4.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 -2.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.51 +60.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.7 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 433.27 +.84%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.26 -1.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.13 +3.37%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.93 -1.22%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 -.17%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 unch.

• TED Spread 15.0 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 -.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.09 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 152.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 207.0 USD/Metric Tonne -9.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 160.1 -1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.60 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 -3.0 basis points
• 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long