Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,164.75 -36%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,268.50 -.51%

• NASDAQ 13,502.23 +.47%

• Russell 2000 2,220.62 -.44%

• S&P 500 High Beta 74.61 -1.38%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 292.81 +1.0%

• Wilshire 5000 43,313.64 -.19%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,538.25 +.26%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,572.0 -.76%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 728.39 +.02%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,372.50 -.48%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,807.33 +2.7%

• Transports 15,517.0 -2.6%

• Utilities 906.44 -.53%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.96 +.04%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 53.25 +.54%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,397.06 +.08%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 947.61 -.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 470,115 +.61%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 269 +378

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.31 +1.44%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 496,561 -.69%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,444,466 +1.0%

• Total Put/Call .81 -3.33%

• OEX Put/Call 2.05 -7.6%

• ISE Sentiment 115.0 -17.0 points

• NYSE Arms .97 +78.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,136.0 -6.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 20.1 +7.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.7 +1.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.3 -.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.1 -2.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,967.5 +2.9%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.541 Trillion +.56%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +9.700 Million

• AAII % Bulls 37.0 +1.4%

• AAII % Bears 26.3 -2.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 200.89 -1.2%

• Crude Oil 63.72 -2.89%

• Reformulated Gasoline 206.96 -2.3%

• Natural Gas 2.91 -2.2%

• Heating Oil 198.90 -2.2%

• Gold 1,878.78 +1.69%
• Silver 27.55 -.01%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 263.9 +1.7%

• Copper 449.75 -3.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 507.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 186.05 USD/Metric Tonne -10.3%

• Lumber 1,453.0 +4.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,232.56 -1.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton +3.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +10.1% -.9 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +23.8% -.6 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +11.6 +1.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 213.07 +338.15%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 195.44 +.60%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 -9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.1 -15.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 56.1 -15.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 93.0% chance of no change, 7.0% chance of rate hike on 6/16

• US Dollar Index 90.1 -.23%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,734.50 +.03%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 37,150.0 -24.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.04 -.14%

• Yield Curve 148.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.62% -2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.883 Trillion +1.2%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9.46 -.11%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 137.97 -.03%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.90 +4.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 178.40 +1.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.67 +10.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.22 +2.1%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 92.46 -3.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.22 -.2%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -10.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.4 +3.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 324.0 +2.3%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.02 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 163.08 +2.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 63.75 +.75 basis point
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.75 +.25 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $1.868 Trillion n/a

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,198.5 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 504,750 -5.7%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.7% +10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.0% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 724,200 +1.2%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 55.3 +.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +13.0% -30.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.04/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 2,824 -3.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,134.37 +2.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 227.74 -4.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 291,066 +1.3%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%
  

Leading Sectors

• Shipping +8.4%

• Alt Energy +58%
  

• Video Gaming +3.8%

• Gold & Silver +3.4%

• Networking +2.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -2.5%
  

• Agriculture -2.8%

• Steel -3.0%

• Road & Rail -3.4%

• Homebuilding -5.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)

• EOSE, LC, DDD, RBLX, TEN, SPCE, F, CDZI, WWE, ASAN, PANW and LEGN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• ALLO, PRLB, KURA and IOVA
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Valuation Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,155.0 +17.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.07 -.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -1.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0  -33.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 unch.

• NYSE Arms .93 -33.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.30 -.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 437.37 -.41%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.10 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 +.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.08 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.23 -.27%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.41 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 148.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 186.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +14.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.10 +7.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 56.1 +2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -1.0 basis point
• 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 64.7% of Issues Advancing, 31.2% Declining
• 139 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 87.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,152.0 +14.0 points
• Vix 20.2 -2.1%
• Total Put/Call .86 +2.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 -17.1%

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Inflation Worries, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.5 -7.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,155.0 +156.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.2 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.3 -1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0  +38.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -21.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 -19.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.34 -.98%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 439.44 +.72%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.39 -1.75%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 +3.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.17 -2.65%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.26 -.17%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 unch.

• TED Spread 15.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.41 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 151.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 198.90 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 134.60 -1.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.0 +3.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -7.0 basis points
• 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 87.1% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 53.9% of Issues Advancing, 41.7% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 86.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,083.0 +74.0 points
• Vix 21.0 -5.3%
• Total Put/Call .78 -26.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 -23.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.29 -02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,988.0 -21.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.9 +2.2%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.3%.

• S&P 500 futures -.28%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BJ)/.56
• (CSIQ)/.39
• (HRL)/.41
• (KSS)/-.12
• (MNRO)/.29
• (WOOF)/.09
• (RL)/-.71
• (PLCE)/-.21
  

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.51
• (DECK)/.62
• (FLO)/.39
• (PANW)/1.28
• (ROST)/.83
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Business Outlook for May is estimated to fall to 41.0 versus 50.2 in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 450K versus 473K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3630K versus 3655K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for April is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.3% gain in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The PBOC interest rate decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (PLT) investor day and the (VMI) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.