Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 51.7% of Issues Advancing, 43.7% Declining
• 81 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 63.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,083.0 +176.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,032 +.14%
  
• Vix 18.3 -2.6%
• Total Put/Call .89 +9.9%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -3.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Xi Jinping Hasn’t Set Foot Outside China for 600 Days.  
• It’s a Lehman Moment, Not Volcker, That China Should Fear.
• France Shuns Austerity With Plan to Cut Debt Burden With Growth.
• Brazil Assets Jump as Bolsonaro Signals Truce With Top Court.
• Asian Stocks Set for Steady Open on Growth Caution: Markets Wrap.
• Yellen Warns of Financial System Risk If Debt Ceiling Not Raised.  
• Goldman, Citi See Aluminum Rally Raging On as Bears Flag Caution.  
• U.S. Oil Output Drops by Most on Record After Hurricane Ida.
• Palladium Plunges to 12-Month Low on Automaker-Demand Concerns.  
• Home Nurses Caring for Fragile Children Must Now Be Vaccinated.  
• Apple’s Watch Software Chief Takes Over Self-Driving Car Project.  
• These Are the U.S. Companies Requiring Covid Vaccines for Employees.  
• Natural Gas Excluded in Democrats’ Budget Plan for Clean Energy.  
• Tougher SPAC Disclosure Rules Endorsed by SEC Advisory Group.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Star of the Munich Auto Show? The Push for Electrification.
• Transforming America in 17 Days.
• Biden’s Mandates Explained.
• ‘Moneyball’ Analytics Help Fight Wildfires. This Year’s Blazes Are Testing Their Limits.
• Taliban Allow Americans, Others to Fly Out of Kabul.
• Democrats Advance Proposal to Require Retirement Plans.
• Airlines Warn of Dimming Outlook Amid Delta Variant.
• Amazon to Pay for Bachelor’s Degrees for U.S. Workers.
  

Fox News:

• Lawmakers explode in fury as president declares war on unvaccinated, maskless.
• Top retailers to play role in Biden's sweeping COVID plan. 
• Biden ordering millions of Americans be vaccinated, but one group is off the hook.
  

CNBC.com: 

• Los Angeles to require vaccine for all students 12 and up.
• TSA to double minimum fines for air travelers who refuse to wear masks.
• New York law phases out most gas-powered vehicles by 2035.
• Natural gas prices are rising and could be the most expensive in 13 years this winter.  

MarketWatch.com:             

• Bitcoin could collapse and isn’t ‘a good safeguard of value,’ global central bankers warn.
  
• Here’s why Coinbase is in hot water over crypto lending — and how the SEC is sending a shot across the bow for DeFi.
  
• As Democrats push $3.5 trillion package, Republican lawmaker blasts ‘spending that drives up prices, kills jobs’.
  
• Affirm stock surges 20% after earnings beat and positive outlook.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Unveils Most Severe COVID Actions Yet: Mandates Vax For All Federal Workers, Contractors, & Large Private Companies.
• Owner Of The Country's Most Expensive Mega-Mansion Has Defaulted On $165 Million In Debt. 
• Beijing Blinks: Will Allow Evergrande To Renegotiate Debt Terms.
• Merit System Is Unjust Because It Rewards Productive Individuals, Professors Argue.
• Walmart Is Ending Quarterly Bonuses For Store Workers After Decades.
• Following Mass Outrage, Fed Presidents Kaplan, Rosengren Will Sell All Their Stocks Due To "Ethics Concerns".
• Major US Cities Are Becoming Fentanyl-Infested Cesspools As Millions Plunge Into Hopelessness, Despair.
• Recall Election Could Reverse The California Ideology.
• "It Has Arrived": Uranium ETF Sees Record Inflows Amid Retail Buying Frenzy; Japan Hints At Restart Of Nuclear Power Plants.
• New Evidence Surfaces That The Biden Admin Committed To A Knowingly Unconstitutional Act.
• How Will The Debt Limit Drama Play Out: Here Are The Two Scenarios.
• As NFL Season Kicks Off, Fearmongering Fauci Frets Over Unvaxx'd Attending Games.
• Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid; Big-Tech & Black Gold Skid.

Reuters:

• U.S.-bound migrants fill Colombia town as COVID-19 border closures lifted. (Aug. 11)
  
• Colombia has administered at least 35,750,492 doses of COVID vaccines so far. (graph) Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 35.5% of the country’s population.
• COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Colombia, with 1,959 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 6% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on June 27.

 Jerusalem Post:

• COVID-19: New 'Mu variant' from Colombia could be vaccine resistant - WHO.

Nature: 

• Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.

Newsweek:

• Mu COVID Variant, Which Could Be Resistant to Vaccines, Now in Almost Every State.

Newsmax: 

• Vaccine Mandates Could Exacerbate Nursing Shortage, Experts Fear.
• Congress Republicans Quick to Assail Biden's Vaccination Mandates.
• Rep. Donalds to Newsmax: Biden Vaccine Mandate 'Gross,' 'Totalitarian'.
• Governors Take Issue With Biden Vaccine Order.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• SAY WHAT??? COVID Positive Patients Are Told Type of Variant They’re Infected With Cannot Be Legally Disclosed.
• This Didn’t Age Well… CDC Chief Says There Will Be No Forced Federal Vaccine Mandates.
• Obama Judge Ignores and then Throws Out Attorney Sidney Powell’s Trump 2020 Election Case in Michigan – Now Assessing Powell Fine of $200,000 for Filing Case.
• Biden Slams Hand on Podium and Bolts as Reporter Asks if Vax Mandate is Constitutional (VIDEO).
• Federal Law Enforcement Association Representing 30,000 Officers and Agents Opposes Biden’s Covid Vax Mandate – Floats Lawsuit.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.19 +.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,846.0 -225.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.12 +.9%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (KR)/.64
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for August is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for August is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Trade Data report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept., Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference and the (ALB) investor day  could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Labor/Product Shortage Concerns, Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Decline, Road & Rail/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 +4.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,926.0 -46.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.0 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.35%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.1 -2.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -19.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.71 -.18%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 399.50 +1.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.38 -.99%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.03 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.65 +.16%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.30 -.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 112.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.5 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.8 -7.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 327 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -7/100K people
• 61% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -58 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -49 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -2.0% 2) REITs -1.3% 3) Video Gaming -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• S, DLR, SAM, PATH, BIGC, AGL, VICI, BIIB, SKIN, OCDX, CDMO and BASE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) ALB 3) PII 4) EEM 5) BBIG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HGEN 2) AVAV 3) CVGW 4) RSKD 5) BIIB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Computer Hardware +1.0% 3) Retail +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RKLB, CURV, HYZN, IMPL, LOVE, BLDE, MTTR, REKR, SFTW, ATER, BBIG, MGNX, RH, PTON, REAL, SRZN, OSCR, AMBA, SLQT, AAL, SANA, HQY, TRHC, JBLU, FLYW, OCUL, ALEC, LCID, SMAR, UAA, BGFV, DKS, OPAD, KFY, KRON, ASO and KFY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HIG 2) GEVO 3) REI 4) OPK 5) RH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LULU 2) ASO 3) LOVE 4) TOPS 5) RH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 70 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 65.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,000.0 -71.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,020 +.11%
  
• Vix 18.2 +1.6%
• Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 -16.8%