Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.8% 2) Disk Drives -1.7% 3) Semis -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COIN, HPQ, MRVI, SD, SI, CTXS, DNLI, ATUS, IDYA, DOCU, INSW, AZEK, AR, WDC, ESTE, APAM, MTW, PRCH, MU, CPE, UNPQ, RLAY, AVTR, MARA, TREX, RIOT, AMKR, CCXI, PTGX and COLB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PTGX 2) LUV 3) AGEN 4) PCG 5) AMBA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ORGO 2) AMKR 3) TREX 4) HL 5) MU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +3.2% 2) Alt Energy +2.3% 3) REITs +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HUBS, WFRD, DNA, BLI, QTRX, MGM, VVV, MATX, AGL, VFC, AZPN, SPWR, OCUL, BEPC, VC, RRX and NSTG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXC 2) KBH 3) MAT 4) VFC 5) FLR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QTRX 2) MGM 3) BLI 4) ABNB 5) MATX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 61.4% of Issues Advancing, 35.1% Declining
• 56 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
• 57.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,287.0 -89.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,338 -.04%
  
• Vix 19.6 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .82 -16.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +3.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                    

• Huawei Rejected by Three in Four Canadians on Eve of 5G Decision.
• Asia Stocks Set to Dip Amid Inflation, China Risks: Markets Wrap. 
• U.S. Crude Closes Above $80 With Energy Crisis Boosting Demand.
• Commodity Surge Fuels Inflation Threat.
• Morgan Stanley Sees Stocks Suffering on Souring Consumer Outlook  
• Five Traders Tell Us How to Survive a World of Disrupted Markets.  
• Amazon Softens Return-to-Office Policy, Says Remote Work Is Fine. 
• Everyone’s a Dollar Bull as Taper Makes U.S. Currency a Top Bet.  
• U.S. Farmers Reap Bigger Crop Profits and Boost Stockpiles.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Oil Prices and Bad Policy.
• Oil Jumps Above $80, Turbocharged by Supply Shortages.
• Merrick Garland Has a List, and You’re Probably on It.
• Afghan Interpreter Who Helped Rescue Biden in 2008 Escapes Afghanistan.
  
• Virginia Dad Takes On the School Board.

Fox News:

• DeSantis rips those trying to 'defame' the explorer.
• Kamala’s cringe-worthy science video a bigger phony than originally thought.

CNBC.com:  

• Dow sheds 250 points, S&P 500 slides to start the week.
• ‘Turbocharged’ M&A market could hit a record $6 trillion by year end: KPMG.

MarketWatch.com:          

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says ‘bitcoin is worthless’ amid crypto bull run.
  
• A major crypto hedge-fund manager expects bitcoin to tumble once the SEC greenlights a bitcoin-backed ETF — here’s why.
  
• PC sales growth slows as supply-chain issues persist.  
• We’ve ‘almost certainly’ seen the 2021 high in the stock market, unless earnings clear this bar.

Zero Hedge:

• Southwest Blames Cancellations On Worker Shortage, Union Denies 'Sick-Out' Over Vaccine Mandate.
• Beijing Cracks Down On Banks, Regulators In Latest Anti-Corruption Drive.
• "It's A Disastrous Day" - All Hell Breaks Loose In China's Bond Markets.
• Learning To Fear Free Speech: How Politicians Are Moving To Protect Us From Our Unhealthy Reading Choices.
• Taliban Hails Reception Of US Humanitarian Aid, But No Formal Political Recognition Yet.
• Wall Street Is Done With Covid: Pandemic No Longer Among Top 3 Risks For Market.
• 131 Federal Judges Didn't Disclose Their Interests And Cases May Be Reheard.
• China's Military Conducts Beach Landing Assault Drills Just Across From Taiwan.
• Beware Of The Progressive Redefinition Of Moderates.
• Seattle PD May Lose 40% Of Officers Over Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• COVID-19: The Weaponization Of Fear & The Loss Of Freedom.
• Mexican Cartel Seen Firing Machine Guns Into US, Above National Guard Recon Post.
• Our Economy Is Starting To Break Down On A Very Basic Level.
• Stocks Pump'n'Dump, Bitcoin Jumps With Bonds Away For Columbus Day.
  

Newsmax:

• 2 State Ed Boards Say Feds Have No Role to Play in Parent-School Disputes.
• Supply Chain Shortages Threaten Christmas Gift Delays.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• More Than Half of Americans Believe Cheating Tainted the 2020 Presidential Election and the Number of Americans Who Believe This Is Increasing.
• BREAKING: Over 284,000 Ballots, or 1 Out of Every 10th Maricopa County Ballot, Lacked Evidence That It Was the Original Ballot Received.
• JUST IN: Governor Abbott Bans Vaccine Mandates by ANY Entity in Texas.
• Pelosi Says She Thinks “A Lot” About What She Would do if She “Ruled the World” During Remarks at NATO Parliamentary Assembly (VIDEO).
• Callouts Due to Mandatory COVID Vaccinations Lead to Seattle Ferry Crew Shortages and Unprecedented Ferry Cuts (UPDATE: 250 Crew Not Vaccinated).
• ‘Journey of Self-Discovery’ – Superman Comes Out as Bisexual in DC Comics.

The Epoch Times:

• Time for Free and Open Debate on the Origin of COVID.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.75 +9.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 +8.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.50 +.07%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,236.0 -140.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 +.66%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.51%.

• S&P 500 futures -.34%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AZZ)/.65
• (FAST)/.42
  

After the Close:

• (PNFP)/1.55
• (SGH)/1.60
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism for Sept. is estimated to fall to 99.5 versus 100.1 in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings report for Aug. is estimated to rise to 10950K versus 10934K in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (MCHP) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Clarida speaking, G7/G20 Finance Ministers meetings, 3/10Y T-Note auctions, China Exports/Imports data, German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales reports and the (HUBS) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer cyclical shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, China Debt Bubble-Bursting Worries, US Stagflation Fears, Retail/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +2.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,463.0 +155.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.10 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.2 +1.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0  -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -15.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +54.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.89 +.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.39 n/a

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.02 +2.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.85 +7.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.27 -.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.85 -2.4%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.55 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% n/a
  

• Yield Curve 127.0 n/a
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.70 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.8 +1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.4 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 n/a
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 202 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -9/100K people
• 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -1.1% 2) Utilities -1.0% 3) Medical Equipment -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SLGC, COMP, SKIN, HE, BURL, PATH, TLYS, TPTX, SD, PCG, GPS, TASK, AMEH, AVA, IHRT, OLO, FOUR, SRPT, DOCS, AGL, RMNI, CDXS, KNBE, DV, CCRN, DECK and ACMR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PTGX 2) LUV 3) AGEN 4) PCG 5) AMBA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKTX 2) ALLO 3) PAGS 4) CMCSA 5) BBBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume