Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.5 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 -2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.52 -.06%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,570.0 -10.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.7 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ASO)/1.11

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.9% gain in Oct.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Oct.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Dec. is estimated to rise to 68.0 versus 67.4 in Nov.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for Nov. is estimated at -$193.0B versus -$143.3B in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Manufacturing Report, (HPE) fireside chat, (CNC) investor day and the (ADM) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by energy and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Worries, Global Virus Lockdown Fears, Oil Decline, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +3.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,650.0 -92.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.22 -.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.9 +4.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0  -28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -6.9%

• NYSE Arms .89 -4.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.36 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.86 +1.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.47 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.56 -.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.62 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.26 +.26%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.25 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.54 -.48%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 82.25 +4.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.6 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +3.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.4 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 -5.0 basis points
• 92.6%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 64.2%(-.7 percentage point) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 260 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +4/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.9% 2) Gold & Silver -2.9% 3) Video Gaming -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DOCU, ALXO, CORT, ACI, CFLT, LH, WMG, LWLG, ADC, CHTR, FUBO, ROKU, SPWH, CONN, LZ, CFVI, GTLB, NCR, SUMO, RNG, PHR, CURV and RETA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BHC 2) SPHB 3) CIEN 4) CKPT 5) CVNA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGLS 2) RETA 3)  4) CURV 5) PHR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.7% 2) Homebuilding +1.2% 3) Road & Rail +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CIEN, ARHS, RH, CBAH, PI, SFIX, EVGO, HRL, INGN, GTN, TYRA, ACAD, XMTR, LOVE, MP, LITE, AOSL, CVS, BSIG, SWBI, CCS, CADE, JAMF and RAD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTA 2) NCR 3) CVNA 4) RH 5) DOCU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVCT 2) HOV 3) CIEN 4) ANET 5) RH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 33.7% of Issues Advancing, 62.1% Declining
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 51.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,643.0 -100.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,542 -.31%
  
• Vix 20.4 +2.4%
• Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 +17.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China’s Bid to Rival U.S. as Debt Haven at Risk After Crackdowns.  
• U.S. House Passes Bill to Punish China Over Oppression of Uyghurs.  
• Emerging Markets’ Pandemic-Fueled Debt Party Is Coming to An End.
• Fear of Outages Is Boosting Chinese Battery Unicorn on IPO Track.
  
• Indonesia’s Brisk Curve Steepening Signals Fed Tightening Risk.
  
• U.K. House Prices Keep Rising on a Dearth of Supply.  
• Volatility Surges in Australia’s Bond Market With QE in Question.
• Asian Stocks Steady; Treasury Yields Hold Advance: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Gains Near $72 as Stockpiles Dip, Omicron Fears Abate.  
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Wall Street's 2022 Market Forecasts Differ by Second-Most in a Decade.
• From the Archives: Apple Accelerates Work on Car Project, Aiming for Fully Autonomous Vehicle.
• Apple Nears $3 Trillion in Market Value. Here’s Some Context.  
• Pfizer Booster for More Teens Moves Closer to FDA Clearance.  
• Maxwell Prosecutors Point to Money as Motive for Sex Trafficking.  
• Bill Ford Acquires 2 Million Shares of Automaker With Stock Near 20-Year High.  
• ‘Omi-whatever’: Variant Grip on Stocks Lasted Just Two Weeks. 
• Two Men Arrested Over Wildfire That Almost Reached Lake Tahoe.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.K. and Canada Join Olympics Boycott.
• Photos Emerge at Trial of Maxwell With Epstein.
• Beijing Reins In China’s Central Bank.
• Instagram, Other Social-Media Apps Need Stricter Regulation, Senators Say.
• California May Pay Expenses for Women Seeking Abortions From Other States.
• Yes, the Crime Wave is as Bad as You Think. Progressives gaslight the public by claiming things used to be worse.
• Covid-Era Travel Risks Are Changing: What to Consider So You Don’t Get Stranded.
• Biden Commits U.S. Government to Net-Zero Emissions by 2050.
• FDA Authorizes AstraZeneca Covid-19 Antibody as Tool to Prevent Symptomatic Disease.
• Hispanic Voters Now Evenly Split Between Parties, WSJ Poll Finds.

Fox News:

• Accuser drops 'pregnancy' bombshell about Ghislaine Maxwell during trial.
• CNN mocked for desperate attempt to pump up Biden with gas price reporting.

NY Post:

• Ghislaine Maxwell Trial: Live Updates from Day 7.
• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals. 
  

CNBC.com:

• GameStop shares fall as video game retailer reports widening losses in third quarter.
• Charts suggest the S&P 500 is set up for a year-end Santa rally.
• Powell’s fourth major shift raises questions about the Fed’s policy credibility. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GameStop, Lucid Group, RH & more.
• ‘6% inflation is devastating’ to everyday Americans, rising prices need to be curbed, expert says.
• Debt collectors can now DM you on Twitter, Instagram: ‘People who owe money will be bombarded’.

MarketWatch               

• Opinion: If GameStop earnings looked weak to you, you’re not who GameStop really cares about.
  
• America’s new export problem: 12.1 million shipping containers left biggest U.S. ports empty.
  
• The popular Ford Bronco Sport features a tiny, potentially industry-changing part that no other vehicle has.

Zero Hedge:

• Explosion In New Heart Conditions Dismissed As "Post Pandemic Stress Disorder". 
• FDA Says It Now Needs 75 Years To Fully Release Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Data. Nothing says 'trust the science' like asking for the data to be hidden for 75 years...
• New Zealand Prime Minister Admits "There's Not Going To Be An End Point To This Vaccination Program".
• Judge Grants Project Veritas Request To Insert Special Master After FBI Raids.
• "The Problem Is Getting Worse" - China Sees New Marriages Fall To Lowest Level In 13 Years.
• Can Any Nation-State Survive The Era Of Inequality And Scarcity?
• Canada Forced To Tap Its "Emergency" Maple Syrup Reserves.
• Twitter Un-Nukes Ghislaine Maxwell Trial Tracker Account Following Outrage.
• Where Is China Going?
• What's Tougher: Finding Drivers Or Trailers?
• Democrats View Socialism More Favorably Than Capitalism: Gallup.
• Bonds Bloodbath, Dollar Dumped As Omicron Anxiety Ebbs & Flows.

Newsmax:

• Biden Wants Russia to Stand Down, but Troops in Ukraine 'Not on the Table'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Governor of Maine Activates National Guard to Staff Hospitals After Firing Unvaccinated Healthcare Workers.
• EXCLUSIVE LEAKED VIDEO: Coast Guard Collaborate with Leftwing Hack to Indoctrinate Guardsmen on Leftist Propaganda in Forced 2-Hour Zoom Meeting Training.
• BIDEN EFFECT: 12 Major US Cities Hit All-Time Homicide Records (VIDEO).
• Russia Sends Warning to US Embassy in Moscow of “Dangerous Consequences” For “Provocations Near Russia’s Borders” One Day After Biden-Putin Call.
• “This Video Should Be Pulled:” Mistakenly Leaked Email Reveals Biden’s FDA Pressured Google To Censor “Problematic” YouTube Video On Monoclonal Antibody Drug For Covid.
• Leaked Secret Government Report Shows Vaccine Passports Could Fuel COVID and Cost Venues Millions.
• Dr. Fauci Says It’s “a Matter of When, Not If” the Definition of “Fully Vaccinated” Changes (VIDEO).
• China’s Property Sector Shows Signs of Falling Apart Which Would Impact the China Economy Significantly. 
• Fauci Tells Americans They Should “Ask and Maybe Require” Their Holiday Guests Show Proof They Are Vaccinated (VIDEO).
• Media Giants Meet with Biden White House to Discuss How to Reshape Narrative Surrounding Biden’s Failed Regime.

The Epoch Times:

• Final Defense Bill Cuts Some Provisions Aimed at Countering China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 672,372 (US) Reports Through November 26, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.5 -.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.80 unch. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,786.0 +43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.9 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CIEN)/.85
• (HRL)/.50
  

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/7.77
• (CHWY)/-.04
• (CMTL)/-.22
• (COST)/2.64
• (LESL)/.25
• (LULU)/1.40
• (MESA)/.12
• (EDU)/.00
• (ORCL)/1.11
• (MTN)/-3.59
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 220K versus 222K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1910K versus 1956K the prior week.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.1% gain in Sept.

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 3Q.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Inflation Data report, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Deutsche Bank Lithium/Battery Supply Chain Conference, Deutsche Bank AutoTech Conference(IRBT) investor day, (NTGR) analyst day and the (CVS) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and biotech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.