Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 42.0 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.93 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,574.0 -20.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DRI)/1.44
• (WGO)/2.34
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, German PPI report and (PFE) analyst call could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Multiple Contraction, Global Virus Lockdown Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.6 +11.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,541.0 -146.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.66 -.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.7 +12.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0  +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -14.1%

• NYSE Arms .88 -13.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.40 -.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.55 +.30%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.67 -2.63%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.9 -2.04%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.40 +.36%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.15 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.93 -1.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 79.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.30 USD/Metric Tonne +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.8 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +4.0 basis points
• 58.2%(-7.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 38.9%(n/a) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -3/100K people
• 48% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -191 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -76 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 60.3% of Issues Advancing, 35.8% Declining
• 66 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
• 45.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,706.0 +17.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,988 -2.7%
  
• Vix 20.0 +3.9%
• Total Put/Call .65 -29.4%
• TRIN/Arms .95 -6.9%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China Chipmaker’s Shareholder Said to Reject Rescue.  
• Australian Bond Yields Jump After Jobs Data Smash Expectations. 
• South Korea Tightens Virus Curbs to Fight Record Case Surge.
  
• U.S. Voices Concern Over Canada’s Plans for Digital Services Tax.  
• Most Asian Stocks Rise After Post-Fed U.S. Rally: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Rises on Hawkish Fed and as U.S. Demand Withstands Omicron.
• Powell Declares Inflation Big Threat as Fed Signals Rate Hikes.  
• Powell Says Balance-Sheet Debate Underway, But This Time Is Different.  
• NYPD Considers Ordering 250 Tesla Model 3 Sedans for $12.6 Million, Documents Reveal.
• ‘Sell Your Hedge and Move On’: Anxious Stocks Surge After Powell.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fed Officials Project Three Rate Increases Next Year.
• Xi Jinping’s Leadership Style: Micromanagement That Leaves Underlings Scrambling.
• Democrats’ $2 Trillion Package Stalls as Manchin Talks Make Little Headway.
• Afghan Women Face Old Family Pressures. 
• John Kerry’s Financial Crusade Against Oil and Gas. Public officials have told the climate envoy to stop trying to raise energy costs for U.S. consumers.
• Anchorage Capital Is Closing $7.4 Billion Flagship Hedge Fund.

Fox News:

• Liberal city meets historic next police commissioner — but it's mural behind her that's getting the attention.
• Feds knew about monster CNN producer over a year before finally arresting him.

CNBC.com:

• Fed will aggressively dial back its bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year.
• Campbell Soup CEO: Some causes of inflation will be more difficult to overcome.
• Democrats are unlikely to pass Biden’s social spending plan this year — here’s what it means.
• Dow jumps 380 points, Nasdaq surges 2% in relief rally after Fed gives rate hiking timeline.
• A full recap of the Fed decision with Powell highlights and instant investor insight. 
• Rivian to build $5 billion electric truck plant in Georgia, sources say.

MarketWatch                 

• Apple’s augmented-reality ambitions could be a ‘game changer,’ Bank of America says in upgrade.
  
• Drug makers move forward with new COVID-19 booster candidates amid omicron’s spread and mass booster campaigns.

Zero Hedge:

• A Puzzled Wall Street Reacts To Powell, And The Market's Furious Melt Up.
• Twitter To Punish Users Who Correctly Claim That Vaccinated Individuals Can Still Spread COVID-19.
• Retailers Fed Up With 'Smash And Grabs' Send Urgent Letter To Congress.
• The Markets Love The FOMC, For Now.
• Air Freight Rates Soar To Record High Amid California Port Crisis.
• IBM And Samsung Jointly Announce "Breakthrough" Semiconductor That Uses 85% Less Energy.
• Fed Doubles Pace Of Taper, Now Expects Three Rate Hikes In 2022.
• Watch: Biden Asks "What's The Big Deal?" About Vaccine Mandates; Says It's "Patriotic" To Take COVID Jabs.
• California's Top Prosecutor Says 'Smash And Grab' Robberies Organized On Social Media.
• "Hero" Judge Holds Hospital In Contempt: Give Ivermectin To Dying Woman Or Pay $10,000-A-Day Fine.
• 7 Infrastructure Act Provisions Sure To Keep You Up At Night.
• Santa Powell.
• Top Cardiologist Tells Joe Rogan Of "Intentional Plot" To Suppress Early COVID Treatments.
• Turbo-Taper Sparks Market Turmoil; Yield-Curve, Dollar Signal 'Policy Error'.

Newsmax:

• 'Never-Trump' NY Times Columnist Stephens: Biden Should Sit Out 2024.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Ann Dorn – Discusses Violence in Major Cities – Her Husband’s Killer Should Have Been Doing Time When Shooting Occurred.
• Decorated Army Veteran and Others ARRESTED by NYPD in The Cheesecake Factory after REFUSAL TO SHOW PROOF OF VACCINATION! Intense VIDEOS, MUST Watch!!
• Can’t Make This Up: Vaccine Maker Moderna Pulls Out of J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Due to COVID-19 Fears.
• MIT Doctor in UK House of Commons: “Not Safe for People Who Know the Origin of the Pandemic to Come Forward”.
• Twitter Rolls Out Massive Update to Its “Covid Misinformation Policy” – Will Now CENSOR Factual Statements and BAN Users Who Claim The Vaccinated Can Spread the Virus.
• WHAT CONFLICT? Jake Sullivan’s Wife Is Now Overseeing the Durham Probe that Is Looking Into Her Husband’s Potential Wrongdoing in Trump-Russia Attempted Coup.
• LIVE -STREAM VIDEO Starting at 11 AM ET: VoterGA and Garland Favorito Sue Georgia to Ban Dominion Voting Machines — VIDEO.
• EXCLUSIVE: More Evidence China’s PLA (Military) May Have Initiated COVID-19 In an Open-Air Test.
• Liz Cheney Reads Text Messages in Front of Jan 6 Committee that Prove There Was NO Planned Insurgency – The Corrupt Committee Ignores and Moves On.

The Epoch Times:

• Senators Want More Oversight of US Companies Looking to Offshore Critical Industries to China.

Independent:

• Ghislaine Maxwell trial - live: Socialite’s legal team want three of her accusers’ lawyers to testify.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 681,961 (US) Reports Through December 3, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.53 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,705.0 +17.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.21%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/2.63
• (ADBE)/3.20
• (CCL)/-1.46
• (JBL)/1.80
• (WOR)/1.86
  

After the Close:

• (FDX)/4.29
• (NX)/.53
• (RIVN)/-6.84
• (SCS)/.09
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 200K versus 184K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1943K versus 1992K prior.
• Housing Starts for Nov. is estimated to rise to 1567K versus 1520K in Oct.
• Building Permits for Nov. is estimated to rise to 1663K versus 1650K in Oct.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Dec. is estimated to fall to 29.1 versus 39.0 in Nov.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.6% gain in Oct.
• Capacity Utilization for Nov. is estimated to rise to 76.8% versus 76.4% in Oct.
• Manufacturing Production for Nov. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.2% gain in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 58.5 versus 58.3 in Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 25.0 versus 24.0 in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BofE rate decision, ECB meeting, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, (ADBE) 4Q financial analyst meeting, (BABA) investor day and the (DAL) capital markets day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower Mid-Day on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed Taper Pace Worries, China Bubble-Bursting Concerns, Consumer Discretionary/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.1 +5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,330.0 -97.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.11 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.8 +4.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 144.0  +24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.6 +158.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.83 -.24%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.77 -.30%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.6 -.01%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.17 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 -.63%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.40 -.86%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 78.0 +.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +1.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.6 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
• 89.5%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 65.2%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 261 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +0/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 32.8% of Issues Advancing, 62.4% Declining
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 160 New Lows
• 46.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,357.0 -68.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,220 -.19%
  
• Vix 22.9 +4.4%
• Total Put/Call .93 -3.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.6 +146.9%