Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China’s Love for New Mutual Funds Cools After Tough Year.
  
• Big Offshore Wind Farms Win Maryland, Massachusetts Approval.
• Cathie Wood Says Innovation Stocks Are in ‘Deep Value’ Territory.  
• Bitcoin Drop Risks Extending Slide to a Fifth Consecutive Week.  
• Tired of Robberies, Billionaire Mall Owner Considering Run for Mayor of L.A.   
• Our Best Charts, Maps and Interactive Features From 2021.  
• Metals Key for EVs Will Be Pricier for Longer After Record Year.
• The Only Reliable Trend in the Stock Market Right Now Is Wilder Swings.
• When Talking About Raising Rates Makes Rates Go Down.  
• Apple and Microsoft Stocks Suffer Their Worst Week in Months.

Wall Street Journal:

• ‘The Corpse Bride Diet’: How TikTok Inundates Teens With Eating-Disorder Videos.
• Biden Administration Considers Sending Ukraine Military Equipment Once Bound for Afghanistan.
• Moderna Drops Pursuit of U.S. Patent for Key Component of Covid Vaccine.
• Central Banks Around the World Raise Rates as Fed Prepares Move.
• Guam Is America’s New Front Line Against China.
• Inflation Is Near a 40-Year High. Here’s What It Looks Like.
• Will We All Soon Live in Cancerland?

NY Post:

• ‘Striking’ vaccine resistance in Omicron variant: Columbia University.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

CNBC:

• Dow tumbles more than 500 points to end volatile week, S&P 500 sheds 1%.
• Federal appeals court reinstates Biden administration’s business vaccine mandate.
• New York state reports highest number of daily Covid cases of entire pandemic at more than 21,000.
• Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns.
  

MarketWatch.com:        

• Here’s what stock-market experts are blaming Friday’s wild price swings on — and it’s not just quad witching.

 Fox News:

• WATCH: Biden judicial nominee dodges senator NINE times when asked about social justice-inspired crime.
• Video shows Biden judicial nominee Dale Ho attacking Senate, Electoral College: They are 'anti-Democratic'.
• Serious side effect emerges in some children after Pfizer COVID shot.

Newsmax:    

• In NH, Ill Omens for Biden: Voters Don't Approve of Him or 'Build Back Better' Agenda.  
• 'Dog the Bounty Hunter': States Across US ‘Decriminalizing Crime’.
• Peter Navarro: J&J Not Only Problem Vax; Fauci Knows It.

Zero Hedge:

• Some News. Please go to the premium website, read The Market Ear blog, listen to the real-time market news and analysis, observe the Spot Gamma widget showing how market gamma changes in real time, have free access to all premium articles and much more. If you like it, we hope you subscribe - if this website is to survive and thrive, it will only be thanks to your help.  
• NYT Reveals How Ashley Biden's 'Inappropriate Showers With Joe' Diary Made Its Way To Project Veritas. 
• NFL To Postpone Several Games Over COVID Spread.
• Los Angeles Import Volume Sinks As Shipping Traffic Jam Worsens.
• Harvard Won't Require SAT Or ACT For 5 More Years.
• A Culture War in Four Acts: Loudoun County, Virginia. Part Two, "The Incident”.
• Peter Navarro Is Anthony Fauci's Worst Nightmare.
• Global Coal Power Demand On Track For Record As Green Energy Transition Crumbles.
• Around The World.
• China To Tighten Regulations On FinTech Brokers.
• NFL Touts Chinese Propaganda, Publishes Map Claiming Taiwan Belongs To China.
• Turbo-Taper Sends Stocks & Bond Yields Lower On The Week.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Maniacal Dr. Fauci Is Now Pushing for a Universal Coronavirus Vaccine and the Media Praises Him as a Trusted Servant.
• EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: J6 Political Prisoner Jake Lang Rescued Philip Anderson from Death on Jan. 6 — Now Government Offers Him 9 Years in Prison in Plea Deal.
• CDC Panel Raises Concerns Over Vaccine-Induced Myocarditis in Children Age 5-11 After 8 Confirmed Cases Quickly Show Up In VAERS Less Than 2 Months After Jab Was Approved For This Age Group.
• HERE WE GO: Pfizer Says Covid Pandemic Could Extend to 2024.
• Biden NatSec Advisor Jake Sullivan: “We Safely and Effectively Drew Down” in Afghanistan (VIDEO).
• JUST IN: Ghislaine Maxwell Tells Judge She Will Not Testify at Her Sex Trafficking Trial.
• 95% Vaccinated NFL Postpones Games Over Omicron Surge After 100 Players Test Positive for Covid.
• ‘Test-to-Stay’ Policy: Biden Unveils Push for Biweekly Covid Tests to Keep Children in School.
• INEXCUSABLE: Man Dies of Cardiac Arrest After EMS Paramedics REFUSED to Enter the Building Due to California “Covid-19 Law”.
• Joe Biden Slips, Calls Kamala “President Harris” During Commencement Address (VIDEO).
• China Property Market Faces Torrential Headwinds as Evergrande Collapse Shines Light on Sector’s Problems.
• School District in New York Sends out Email Warning Parents of Sudden Cardiac Arrest in Students Grades K-12.
• Investigation Revealed 98% of those Infected with COVID-19 After Christmas Dinner in Norway were Fully Vaccinated.

The Epoch Times:

• NBC Asked to Drop Beijing Olympics Broadcast, Spotlight CCP’s Rights Abuses.

The Sun:

• MAXWELL CAMERAS. Why is the Ghislaine Maxwell trial not being televised live?
• Ghislaine Maxwell trial news – ‘Fragile’ Jeffrey Epstein ‘madam’ will not take witness stand in sex trafficking case.

Twitter:

• @DiscloseTV - South Africa hospitalization rate plunges to only 1.7% in #Omicron wave, compared with 19% in previous "Delta-driven" wave - Health Minister. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 681,961 (US) Reports Through December 3, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,645.82 -1.3%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,495.07 -1.1%

• NASDAQ 15,201.27 -2.4%

• Russell 2000 2,179.61 -1.4%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.94 -3.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 275.62 -4.0%

• Wilshire 5000 47,374.50 -1.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,990.33 -2.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,616.61 -.04%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 786.41 +2.0%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,422.57 -4.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,220.12 -4.0%

• Transports 15,927.40 -2.8%

• Utilities 955.57 +2.3%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.40 -.7%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.35 -3.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,482.50 -.16%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 924.19 +.21%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 476,682 -.54%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -50 +53

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.6 +6.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 367,232 -5.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,972,536 -3.0%

• Total Put/Call .87 -19.4%

• OEX Put/Call 2.15 -5.9%

• ISE Sentiment 126.0 -14.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +47.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,492.0 -228.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.30 -4.0%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +10.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.9 +17.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.52 -8.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.64 -1.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,381.84 +2.0%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.636 Trillion unch.

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +3.452 Million

• AAII % Bulls 25.2 -15.2%

• AAII % Bears 39.3 +28.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 227.24 +.59%

• Crude Oil 70.93 -1.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 214.08 -.56%

• Natural Gas 3.68 -2.6%

• Heating Oil 222.62 -1.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 180.50 (1,000/metric ton) +11.4% 

• Gold 1,802.0 +1.22%
• Silver 22.49 +1.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 481.88 +1.1%

• Copper 429.50 -.05%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 466.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.22%

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.75 USD/Metric Tonne +5.2%

• Lumber 1096.50 +1.94%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,325.83 -.18%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 685.0 USD/Short Ton -.73%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +7.2% -1.5 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.3% +.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 7.7 +6.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 258.9 +203.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 222.24 +.52%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -9.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 +4.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 95.0%(n/a) chance of no change, 5.0%(n/a) chance of rate hike on 1/26

• US Dollar Index 96.55 +.36%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,725.02 -.16%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 46,719 -6.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.04 -.12%
  

• Yield Curve 79.5 unch.
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.40% -8.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.719 Trillion +1.1%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.83 -12.8%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 117.52 +1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.94 -5.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 223.45 +1.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.38 +.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.95 +2.8%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 133.06 +25.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.1 -.6%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42% -5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 17.75 +3.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 +2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.60 -1.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 329.0 +2.0%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.30 -4.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 198.35 +4.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 72.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.25 -.25 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,086.60 -.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 203,750 -7.3%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 39.8 -2.0% 

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.12% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 591,700 -4.0%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 51.2 +.2 basis point

• Weekly Retail Sales +15.7% +.4 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -15.0% +.5 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.31/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,498 -23.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,238.35 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Container Ships Anchored 1,018 unch.
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 124.11 +1.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 274,337 +.7%
• TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 846,934 +27.9% 
• US Covid-19:  263 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +12/100K people
• US Covid-19:  49% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak +2.0 percentage points
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -3.0%
  

Leading Sectors

• Pharma +4.7%

• Biotech +4.3%
  

• Foods +3.5%

• Education +3.0%

• Gold & Silver +3.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Software -5.0%
  

• Retail -5.3%

• Alt Energy -6.1%

• Oil Service -6.5%

• Homebuilding -6.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (46)

• EPAY, CERN, NVAX, BEAM, TRHC, GRTS, DNUT, RBOT, ICPT, NTLA, BCRX, FLGT, KURA, VERV, BHVN, HALO, QDEL, MDRX, ZNTL, FHTX, XNCR, ZGNX, ARCT, FTAI, IRTC, TENB, CXM, NXGN, ACAD, LOPE, BRG, SAGE, DNLI, AGIO, PAY, BEPC, UBER, ALLK, PAY, PINC, ARNC, VGR, ANET, LESL, AVNS, TTWO, CONN and NKTR
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• FOCS, UFPI, AINV, SPWH, DRI, TTEK, SMRT, GM, FRPT, BLD, NEWT, RIVN and ADGI
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Virus Lockdown Worries, Dollar Strength, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,489.0 -105.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.0 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.4 +5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0  -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms .95 +1.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.55 +.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 422.12 +1.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.09 +.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.3 -.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.35 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.1 +.29%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.32 -1.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 79.5 +.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -3.0 basis points
• 52.2%(-6.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 36.0%(-2.9 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 263 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +5/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +145 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +34.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 53.2% of Issues Advancing, 41.9% Declining
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 134 New Lows
• 46.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,479.0 -115.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,058 +.4%
  
• Vix 21.0 +2.1%
• Total Put/Call .89 +3.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +30.0%