Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -32.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 53.9% of Issues Advancing, 41.7% Declining
• 110 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 48.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,080.0 +52.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,410 -.39%
  
• Vix 17.8 +.7%
• Total Put/Call .64 -18.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.60 +67.7%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.51 -.11%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,067.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (CALM)/.29
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.9% gain in Sept.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.96% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated at 11.0 versus 11.0 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Construction data report, weekly US retail sales reports and the 5Y T-note auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Seasonal Strength, Oil Gain, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,038.0 +32.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.11 +.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.1 -9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0  +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -6.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.1 +20.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.18 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 391.41 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.71 +.37%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 190.53 -3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.09 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.57 -1.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.60 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.0 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 +2.0 basis points
• 41.6%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 26.9%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 438 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +86/100K people
• 82% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +16.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.5% 2) Gaming -1.4% 3) Airlines -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• QDEL, SBGI, BBIO and ALNY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MPW 2) CEI 3) IHI 4) VEEV 5) T
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NVAX 2) TMC 3) FFIE 4) PSFE 5) PTON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.6% 2) Networking +2.1% 3) Energy +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HLTH, AOSL, ARCB, CCRN, UPST, GDDY, OAS, FLL, TWI, EXTR, AMD, SGH, MNRL, PLAB, CONN, HTZ, CROX, ALGM, FLWS, HLIT, SHLX and HCAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AXSM 2) AMLP 3) NXTD 4) EOG 5) CODX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVCT 2) CNF 3) HLTH 4) GDDY 5) UPST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -32.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 62.2% of Issues Advancing, 34.1% Declining
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 48.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,017.0 +12.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,518 +.58%
  
• Vix 18.0 -.1%
• Total Put/Call .73 -7.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +25.8%