Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.4% 2) Road & Rail -.3% 3) Agriculture -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BIIB and VGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BIIB 2) WW 3) BKNG 4) TMUS 5) CROX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIIB 2) NCLH 3) CCL 4) TSLA 5) MFIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.8% 2) Social Media +3.8% 3) Gambling +3.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVGO, WW, LMND, SOFI, VRM, DCPH, TSP, CHPT, NVTA, DMTK, PTON, DNUT, VWE, HOOD, SPCE, GRWG, EXAS, DKNG, BYND, YOU, FUBO, UPST, NSTG, SBGI, BCAB, PLL, SPWH, RRD, GDRX, VSTO, ARLO, KNBE, APPS, NKLA, ATUS, LZ, RKT, BIGC, AVLR, BRBR, QDEL and IAS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIS 2) GPN 3) UA 4) BIIB 5) ABBV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TME 2) ISIG 3) FTFT 4) TSP 5) DHC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -26.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 64.5% of Issues Advancing, 31.6% Declining
• 115 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
• 51.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,249.0 +33.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,350 +.02%
  
• Vix 16.8 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .92 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .55 -63.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• Biden, Putin to Speak Thursday as Tensions Over Ukraine Grow.
• How Will China Change in 10 Years Under Xi’s Common Prosperity Push? Citizens Speak Out.
• Micron Says Output at Chinese Facility Hit by City’s Shutdown.
  
• Asian Stocks Decline; U.S. Treasuries Hold Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Found Guilty in Win for Epstein Victims.
  
• Maxwell Now Faces Another Criminal Trial for Perjury.
• U.S. Covid Deaths Are Falling Even as Omicron Cases Jump.  
• Toxins in Household Products Leave FDA Chasing a Vapor Trail.  
• Harris Quietly Taps Wall Street, Tech CEOs for Advice on Policy.  
• AI-Powered Stock Fund Bails Out of Mega-Cap FANG+ Stocks.  
• Shale Drillers Face Record Cost Pressures as Banks Shun Sector.  
• Egg-flation Sends Down Shares of Top U.S. Producer Cal-Maine Foods.  
• S&P 500 Will Top 5,000 Before Correction Hits in 2022, Leuthold Strategist Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• IPOs’ Record Year Ends on Low Note for Most Newcomers.
• Drugmakers Battle Over Patents for Covid-19 Vaccines.
• The Supply-Chain Crunch Is Like a Traffic Jam.
• Facebook’s Pushback: Stem the Leaks, Spin the Politics, Don’t Say Sorry.
• California’s Great Climate Fail. A left-leaning policy shop documents the state’s emissions bust.

Fox News:

• Another CNN producer under 'criminal investigation' over sickening allegations.
• British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell CONVICTED of helping pedophile pal Jeffrey Epstein abuse teens.
• Democratic staffer who wants to abolish police proudly reveals her 'life's mission'.
• Biden's claim about economic record is turning heads for all the wrong reasons.

CNBC.com:

• Apple ditched Intel, and it paid off.

MarketWatch                 

• These stocks are down at least 20% from 2021 highs, but analysts see them gaining as much as 87% in 2022.  
• Opinion: These are tech’s 10 megatrends for 2022 — and the stocks to buy.  
• Biogen stock surges after report of a possible $40 billion buyout by Samsung.

Zero Hedge:

• Ghislaine Maxwell Found Guilty Of Helping Epstein Sexually Abuse Teen Girls.
• Twitter Suspends mRNA Inventor Dr. Robert Malone.
• The Reckless Push For Electric Vehicles At The US Postal Service.
• Canada Cancels Unvaccinated Joe Rogan: Can't Attend His Own Sold-Out Show.
• Doug Casey On How Marxists Captured The Universities And Will Soon Capture The Nation.
• Marines "Crushed" By Vax Mandate As "Thousands" Denied Religious Exemptions In "Political Purge".
• Jake Tapper's Producer Resigns From CNN Amid Pedo Scandal.
• Police Raid Shutters Independent Hong Kong News Outlet For "Seditious" Content.
• Aaron Rodgers: Science That "Can't Be Questioned" Is "Propaganda".
• Biden Approval Rating Plunges Below Kamala's; New Gallup Survey Finds.
• Beyond all time highs...
• Dow Gains For 6th Straight Day As 'Omicold'-Pivot Erases 30Y Bond Bid.

Newsmax:

• Why Did CDC Trim COVID Quarantine Call? Human Nature, Says Agency Chief.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• DEVELOPING: Ghislaine Maxwell Found Guilty in Epstein Sex Trafficking Case – Details Sealed by the Judge.
• JUST IN: Twitter PERMANENTLY Suspends mRNA Vaccine Inventor Dr. Robert Malone After Tweeting About the mRNA Vaccines – The Day Before He Goes on with Joe Rogan.
• Lawmaker: Joe Biden Reallocated $2 Million in COVID Testing Funds to House Illegals at the Border (VIDEO).
• Smash-and-Grab Thieves Steal $1 Million Worth of Hermès Handbags from Palm Beach Boutique.
• CNN Comms Confirms Jake Tapper’s Producer Resigned Following Project Veritas Reporting of Texts Showing Solicitation of Underage Photos.
• Fauci Moves Goalposts Again, Says Shutting Down the Country is Bad For People’s Health (VIDEO)..
• Instead of Facing Charges of Crimes Against Humanity – Fauci Eligible to Receive the Largest Retirement Pay in US Government History.
• Biden Regime “Actively Preventing” Life-Saving Monoclonal Antibody Treatments to Florida and Texas.
• CDC Director Walensky Says Testing at the End of Quarantine No Longer Needed Because PCR Tests Can Stay Positive For Up to 12 Weeks (VIDEO).
• HUGE. CDC Withdraws Use of PCR Test for COVID and Finally Admits the Test Can Not Differentiate Between the Flu and COVID Virus.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘#NotFromChina Pledge’: Rights Groups Urge End to CCP’s ‘Billion-Dollar’ Organ Harvesting Industry.

Twitter: 

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Chinese Police in Jingxi city paraded alleged violators of Covid rules through the streets. MORE - 10 people being paraded through the main street of Jinxi city in a truck allegedly otherwise used for transporting pigs. Loudspeakers broadcast their names, violations, and the local Covid restrictions (BILD) (video) In dozens upon dozens of small and large cities, people in Germany are taking to the streets today in so-called #Spaziergaenge ("walks") against compulsory vaccinations.
• @Krommsan - Love or hate #Fauci , in March of 2020, he explains how they rushed the #vaccine 1/2 way through the video is where we are now. 
• @21stCenturyWire - WATCH as this #CVS pharmacist in America, after a concerned citizen confronts him on the #Covid shot ingredients, has a mental episode and possibly an epiphany in the process. Incredible! (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 691,883 Reports(+9,243 from prior week) Through December 17, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.44 -.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,228.0 +12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.97 -.19%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 207K versus 205K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 1875K versus 1859K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 62.0 versus 61.8 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canada GDP report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,202.0 +105.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.39 +.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.6 -2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0  +30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +26.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.52 +24.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.46 +.20%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.90 -.98%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.75 +.75%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.82 -.56%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.52 -.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.86 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.25 -3.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.44 -1.55%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 73.75 +.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.50 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +2.0 basis points
• 39.8%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 25.7%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 550 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +44/100K people
• 100% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +5.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -7 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/transport/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.1% 2) Alt Energy -1.4% 3) Social Media -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CIT, SBGI, CALM, CLSK and TSP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BLL 2) FCEL 3) ECH 4) ASHR 5) OXY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MFIN 2) FCEL 3) CEMI 4) ASTR 5) CALM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume