Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Disappointing US Jobs Report, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,428.0 +113.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.31 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -4.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.5 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0  +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -6.2%

• NYSE Arms .47 -42.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.44 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 392.20 +1.0%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.54 +2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.56 -.87%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 196.42 +.67%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.67 -.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.65 +.40%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 84.75 -2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.6 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.5 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.6 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +3.0 basis points
• 24.2%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 15.7%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,269 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +46/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -.2%(+10.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -48 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial sector long and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 38.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 68 New Lows
• 52.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,346.0 +29.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,203 -1.25%
  
• Vix 20.6 +4.8%
• Total Put/Call .92 -5.2%
• TRIN/Arms .59 -27.2%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China’s Local Governments Give Early Hints of 2022 GDP Target.
• Chinese Scientist Pleads Guilty to Stealing Monsanto Trade Secret.
• Samsung’s Profit Climbs as Hopes Grow for 2022 Memory Recovery.
• U.S. to Revise Singapore Travel Advisory After Covid Data Flap.  
• Stocks, Futures Climb as Focus Turns to Payrolls: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Set for Third Weekly Advance as Market Tightens on Outages.  
• Shale Titan EOG Is Ready to Pump More Oil If Market Wants It.
• Deere Expects a ‘Slow’ Rollout of Autonomous Tractors This Year.
  
• Ghislaine Maxwell Juror Who Could Upend Conviction Works for Carlyle Group.
  
• Meme Coins Return to Earth as Gloom Overtakes Crypto Fanatics.  
• Omicron’s Spread Means More Food Outages at U.S. Grocery Stores.

Wall Street Journal:

• Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels Since Spring 2020.
• Families Shell Out for Covid Tests Amid Race to Lift Supply.
• Biden Shifts Message, Prepares U.S. to See Covid as Part of Life.
• Chinese Authorities Cite Walmart for Cybersecurity Violations.
• Dozens Killed in Kazakhstan Protests.
• Supreme Stakes on Vaccine Mandates. The Court’s ruling will echo far beyond the current pandemic.

Fox News:

• MSNBC host ripped for COVID questions conservatives have been asking.
• Dire message from advisers to Biden about his COVID strategy after failing to 'shut down the virus'.
• Chicago teachers abandon students again as nation watches in disbelief.
• Jan. 6: Trump hits back, saying Biden trying to 'further divide America' to distract from failures.

CNBC.com:

• Conagra Brands CEO says inflation won’t go away even after Covid omicron wave passes.
• Sell-off in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation fund reached 48% at low point Thursday.
• The Federal Reserve is scaring markets with the triple threat of policy tightening.
• Hedge funds are selling tech at the fastest pace in a decade as rates spike. 
  
• Moderna CEO says people may need fourth Covid shot as efficacy of boosters likely to decline. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GameStop, Quidel & T-Mobile.
• New York Times to buy The Athletic for $550 million.

MarketWatch:  

• Opinion: These market pros are stubbornly bullish about stocks — and that should worry you.
  
• These tech stocks have fallen 20% to 51% from their 52-week highs. Should you consider buying now?  
• Apple CEO Tim Cook’s compensation rises to nearly $100 million thanks to new stock award.

Zero Hedge:

• Reuters Data Scientist Fired After Nuking BLM Narrative, Exposing 'Significant Left-Wing Bias' In Reporting.
• Greenwald: The Histrionics & Melodrama Around 1/6 Are Laughable, But They Serve Several Key Purposes. 
• The Vaccine Is A Dud, But That Won't Stop Push For Digital IDs.
• Judge Rejects FDA's 75 Year Delay On Vax Data, Cuts To Just 8 Months.
• Outgoing Fed Vice Chair Quietly Covered Up Suspicious Trades Made During March 2020 Market Rout.
• China's Xi Orders Military To Create "Elite Force" To Win Wars.
• "It's Been Bad Since Christmas" - Subway Service Slows Dramatically As Worker Shortages Cause Mass Delays.
• A Tale Of Two QTs.
• Mayhem In Kazakhstan As 18 Police Reported Killed, Banks Offline, Shooting & Explosions Heard.
• Here's The One Thing Traders Want To Know After Biggest "Rate Shock" Selloff Since 2016.
• "Massive Meltdown": 40% Of Nasdaq Companies Are Down More Than Half From Their Highs.
• Royal Caribbean Shares Fall After Hindenburg Research Discloses Short Position.
• Taiwan Should Destroy Island’s Semiconductor Plants If China Invades, Paper Says.
• California Dem Flips On Party Over Smash And Grab Robbery Epidemic.
• GameStop Entering NFT And Cryptocurrency Markets; Stock Surges.
• January 6: A Legacy Of Troubling Questions.
• US Stocks Erase All 2022 Gains As Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Soar.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Steube: Dems, Biden Keep Jan. 6 in News as Distraction.
• Rep. Comer: Biden Hasn't Shown 'Ounce of Unity' as President.
• Ron Johnson: Over 1M COVID-19 Vax Adverse Events Censored by Twitter.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• “For the First Time We Were All Able to Sing the Star-Spangled Banner Together, We Sang it Loud and Proud” – Exclusive: Patriots Speak Out from the Inside of DC “GITMO” – One Year After January 6.
• MUST READ: One Year Later and STILL NO JUSTICE FOR JANUARY 6th. We Will Keep Fighting For The Truth!!
• CAPITOL PUNISHMENT Producer and Conservative Actor Nick Searcy Reveals Stunning Inside Story About What REALLY Happened On Jan 6th: “It was amazing how much of it was an operation” [VIDEO].
• Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell Follows AOC’s Lead, Vacations Maskless in Mandate-Free Florida.
• INSURRECTION FLASHBACK: “Drop and Roll” — How The 2020 Election Was Stolen From President Donald Trump (Video).
• INSURRECTION FLASHBACK: EXCLUSIVE: The TCF Center Election Fraud – Newly Discovered Video Shows Late Night Deliveries of Tens of Thousands of Illegal Ballots 8 Hours After Deadline.
• INSURRECTION FLASHBACK: ‘I Can’t Believe What I’m Seeing – This is a Coup’ – Registered Democrat and Poll Watcher Details Corruption at Philly Vote Counting Center (VIDEO).
• INSURRECTION FLASHBACK: HUGE EXCLUSIVE: Michigan AG Dana Nessel Sends Cease and Desist Order to Journalist Demanding He Erase His #DetroitLeaks Video Showing Voter Fraud Training — OR FACE CRIMINAL PROSECUTION.
• Kamala Harris Compares January 6 Capitol Riot to Attacks That Killed Thousands at Pearl Harbor and on 9/11.

The Epoch Times:

• Denial of Care for Dying Patients in Locked-Down Xi’an Sparks Anger, Despair.
• How Communist China Manipulates the Narrative About China in the West—Leon Lee Talks New Film, “Unsilenced”.

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW Federal judge has reportedly rejected FDA's request to produce only 500 pages per month on the #Pfizer Covid vaccine data, instead ordering a rate of 55,000 pages per month. Double vaccinated, boosted, and now 4th vaccination. Despite this, Covid cases in #Israel reach a new record high: 16,115 new infections. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 709,083 Reports(+7,757 from prior week) Through December 24, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 +2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 +2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.48 +.09%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,286.0 -30.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.7 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%.

• S&P 500 futures +.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AYI)/2.41
• (GBX)/.21
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Two-Month Payroll Net Revision.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Dec. is estimated to rise to 442K versus 210K in Nov.
• The Unemployment Rate for Dec. is estimated to fall to 4.1% versus 4.2% in Nov.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Nov. is estimated to rise to $20.0B versus $16.897B in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Euruzone Trade Balance report and US Supreme Court hearing vaccine mandate case could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,298.0 +48.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.80 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.6 +.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0  -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -8.6%

• NYSE Arms .75 -3.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.56 +.17%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.92 -.50%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.31 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.55 +6.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.34 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.11 -.11%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.4 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 87.25 -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 -11.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.1 +2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -6.0 basis points
• 24.2%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 14.6%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,223 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +73/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.4%(+12.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.3% 2) Healthcare Providers -2.1% 3) Homebuilding -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HEAR, LSTR, YOU, CDAY, ALNY, ADPT, PHR, ACCD, BBWI, TSP, CNM, FXLV, RIVN, PMVP, ANGO, RAD, SCHN, EWTX, HUM, STRO and BLI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VTI 2) EDIT 3) BBBY 4) IYR 5) XHB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BLI 2) HUM 3) EMBK 4) RIVN 5) CGC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +2.9% 2) Oil Service +2.8% 3) Energy +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VCRA, BYND, LW, DASH, BBBY, FYBR, AXNX, SLGC, CFLT, PANW, ESRT, AOSL, BHVN, NKLA, ESTE, CRWD, THO, NLOK, MTB, ESMT, SGH, GPN, DKS, FTNT, PACB, PCRX, VRNS, MTTR, EBC, FRSH and HUBS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IAA 2) HEAR 3) BBBY 4) BBWI 5) EMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LW 2) GBOX 3) SFIX 4) OPFI 5) FRLN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume