Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Americans Stampede Into Inflation-Linked Bonds, Smashing Records.
• Tech Stocks Stumble to Worst Start Since 2016 on Rate-Hike Fears.
• Goldman’s Most Elite Rank to Get Millions in Special Payouts.
• DirecTV to Drop One America News in Blow to Conservative Channel.  
• Summers Says U.S. Risks Recession by Blaming Inflation on Greed.  
• LA Looters Raid Unattended Containers Amid Supply-Chain Chaos.  
• Prince Andrew and His Accuser in a Sex-Abuse Lawsuit Agree to Keep Some Evidence Secret.  
• U.S. Home Sales Tumble Most in 18 Months With Listings Scarce.  
• Watch Corporate Debt for Early Warning on U.S. Credit Stress.  
• Treasury Yields Jump Toward 2-Year High, Shattering Market Calm.  
• Whipped-Up Nasdaq Volatility Is New Gut Check for Bottom Feeders.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hospitals, Nursing Homes Fear Losing Staff Over Vaccine Rules.
• Florida Is Living With Covid—and Freedom. The state’s surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, on his advice against tests for the asymptomatic, his opposition to vaccination mandates, and life in Los Angeles under lockdown.
• McDonald’s CEO Confronts a Supersized Challenge.

Fox News: 

• Biden blamed as cringeworthy details emerge about COVID plan weeks after omicron surge started in US.
• Biden ripped for continued COVID failures after presser: 'Imagine if Trump told us to Google test sites'.
• Top-paid federal employee's financial records have been buried — until now.

CNBC:

• Dow drops 200 points Friday as bank stocks get hit, market posts second losing week to start 2022.
• Bill Ford is doubling down on Ford shares, and quietly amassing more control of the company.
• Wage inflation has arrived in a big way and Jamie Dimon says CEOs ‘shouldn’t be crybabies about it’.
• Netflix raises prices in U.S. and Canada, stock pops.
• CDC updates mask guidance, says N95s offer ‘highest protection’.

Zero Hedge:

• One Bank Sees A Stagflationary Hellscape For Markets In 2022: Here's How To Trade It.
• What's Going On With Nancy Pelosi's Son?
• "We've Got A Gun At Every Door In The House": Border Rancher Sees 2,400% Increase In Illegal Aliens On Property.
• Poll Finds Only 10% Of Americans Trust Media On COVID, 30% Trust Fauci.
• "We're Breaking Her, Keep Going": ACLU Strategist Issues Chilling Tweet Against Sinema.
• Beijing Initiates "Olympic Bubble" Measures For Pandemic Control.
• Dr. Oz Slams "Petty Tyrant" Fauci, Challenges Him To Debate On COVID.
• The Double Helix Of Entwined Pandemic And Economic Strategy.
• What You Need To Know Ahead Of Weekend Winter Storm.
• Why Democrats Make Energy Expensive (And Dirty).
• Taibbi: Vaccine Aristocrats Strike Again.
• Soros-Backed Baltimore State's Attorney Indicted On Federal Perjury Charges.
• The Fed Has Triggered A Stagflationary Disaster That Will Hit Hard This Year.
• How Central Planners Corrupted The World.
• 11 Reasons Why This Was Joe Biden's Worst Week Ever.
• Nasdaq Extends Worst Start To A Year Since 2009 As Fed Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring.

MarketWatch.com:        

• Here’s what a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for markets.
  
• Oil rallies as analyst warns Ukraine crisis could be a ‘seismic event’ for the energy market.

NewsMax: 

• Rep. Cammack: WH Silence 'Deafening' on Iran's Trump Assassination Video.
• Sen. Ron Johnson: 'Disappointed' SCOTUS Didn't Stop Healthcare Mandate.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BRACE YOURSELF! The ‘Mother of All Supply Chain Shocks’ Is Coming as China Shuts Down Major Ports Due to Pandemic.
• Hillary Clinton Slams “White Moderates” with MLK Quote After Sinema, Manchin Blow up Biden’s Bid to Kill the Filibuster… And it Backfires.
• Dystopia Down Under: Australia Refuses to Provide World’s Number One Tennis Player Novak Djokovic a Visa After Messing with Him for a Week.
• Alec Baldwin Turns Over iPhone in Probe of Fatal ‘Rust’ Shooting One Month After Search Warrant Issued For Device.
• GE Suspends Vaccine Requirement After Supreme Court Strikes Down Biden OSHA Mandate.
• Biden Urges States And Businesses To ‘Do The Right Thing’ And Keep Forcing Workers To Vaccinate Despite Supreme Court Ruling.
• Federal Entity in DC Is Keeping a List of Individuals Who Refused Vaccine Based on Religious Grounds.

The Epoch Times:

• Congress Distributes ‘Made in China’ Masks to House Members, Drawing Criticism From GOP Lawmakers.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 715,856 Reports(+6,773 from prior week) Through December 31, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,642.37 -1.2%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,763.35 -1.4%

• NASDAQ 14,803.30 -1.4%

• Russell 2000 2,146.60 -2.4%

• S&P 500 High Beta 78.97 -.58%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 257.22 -3.8%

• Wilshire 5000 47,094.07 -1.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,884.32 -2.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,663.88 -.71%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 802.79 -.77%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,398.21 -.62%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,145.74 -.6%

• Transports 15,826.09 -3.1%

• Utilities 951.32 -2.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.09 +2.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.04 +2.1%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,485.97 +.28%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.99 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 483,737 +.14%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -72 +740

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.98 -.91%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 332,825 -1.66%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,887,131 +1.06%

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +14.7%

• OEX Put/Call 2.49 +50.0%

• ISE Sentiment 97.0 +1.0 point
  

• NYSE Arms .62 +22.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,427.0 -72.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.34 -.34%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 +12.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +15.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.2 +1.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.95 -4.0%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,794.61 +2.6%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.674 Trillion -.60%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -6.017 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.9 -24.1%

• AAII % Bears 38.3 +15.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 242.90 +2.1%

• Crude Oil 83.8 +6.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 242.02 +5.2%

• Natural Gas 4.23 +8.3%

• Heating Oil 263.2 +5.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 189.75 (1,000/metric ton) +4.8%
  

• Gold 1,818.55 +1.1%
• Silver 22.94 +2.2%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 516.71 +2.57%

• Copper 443.05 +.59%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 465.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.09%

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Lumber 1,313.20 +7.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,353.51 -.84%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 680.0 USD/Short Ton -.5%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.8% +.1 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.7% -.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 6.1 -13.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 56.4 -61.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.69 +.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -6.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +2.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 94.4%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 5.6%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of rate hike on 1/26

• US Dollar Index 95.19 -.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,741.65 +.56%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 43,052 +1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.12 -.89%
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 -3.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% +25.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.750 Trillion +.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.79 +.86%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 111.33 +9.76%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -4.0 basis point
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.18 +10.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 223.19 +4.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.89 -3.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.43 +.74%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 177.41 +42.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.75 -2.5%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 12.0 -2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.74 +2.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 339.0 +9.5%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.99 +2.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.74 +9.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 84.5 +7.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.25 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,047.50 -2.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,750 +3.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -.2 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 27.9 +58.8% 

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.45% +23.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 580,600 +1.4%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 41.9 -3.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.4% -2.9 percentage points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -27.9% -55.6 percentage points

• Nationwide Gas $3.31/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,873 -18.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,489.9 +1.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 174.30 -1.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 230,741 +21.7%
• TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 1,650,795 n/a
• US Covid-19:  1,662 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At peak +393/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions at peak per 100K +24.5% from prior 7-day avg. of 12/29/21-1/4/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.5%

• Energy +5.1%
  

• Paper +3.9%

• Homebuilding +3.3%

• Gold & Silver +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -3.4%
  

• Gambling -3.7%

• Alt Energy -5.5%

• Restaurants -5.6%

• Retail -5.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (0)

• None of note
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (48)

• ROP, BLK, SHW, LAW, RVT, VMC, AWK, NVTA, ROST, DG, GS, AZEK, RH, AMC, EL, SRG, CWH, CNXC, HUBS, NVAX, FRC, TREX, RKT, SQ, NTRA, TXG, ERAS, BCAB, HZO, WRBY, SANA, BURL, CONN, KYMR, XPOF, ALXO, DKNG, GME, MTTR, PACB, CVNA, ONEM, CTRN, DOCN, SKIN, PWP, RVLV, SAM and BRLT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Concerns, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.4 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,432.0 +27.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.11 -.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.0 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0  +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +17.2%

• NYSE Arms .72 -31.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.79 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.48 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.08 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.74 +3.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.72 -1.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  84.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.27 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.90 -13.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1.0 basis point
  
• 13.9%(-10.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 8.1%(-.8 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,662 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At new peak +20/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population at new record high +20.5%(-4.0 percentage points) from prior 7-day avg. of 12/30/21 - 1/5/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +101 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/industrial/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 27.2% of Issues Advancing, 69.2% Declining
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 130 New Lows
• 54.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,345.0 -56.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,943 +.06%
  
• Vix 21.0 +3.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +9.7%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -25.7%