Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.7% 2) Shipping +1.3% 3) Agriculture +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APTS, DDOG, BTU, INVA, AVYA, ASAN, EGLE, SONO, GDOT, NVST, MAT, TSP, SAVA, IFF, LXU, CTKB, TWLO, ZETA, IRDM, METC, K, DIS and ORLY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KKR 2) XLB 3) AES 4) CLSK 5) TWLO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APTS 2) SAVA 3) MU 4) TWLO 5) MAT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +27.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 52.5% of Issues Advancing, 44.0% Declining
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 267 New Lows
• 40.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,995.0 +50.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,765.0 -.37%
  
• Vix 21.0 +5.5%
• Total Put/Call .78 -14.3%
• TRIN/Arms .51 -26.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 -2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -1.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.66 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,987.0 +40.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.9 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.37%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MT)/3.22
• (AZN)/1.54
• (GOOS)/1.46
• (KO)/.41
• (DDOG)/.11
• (DBD)/.57
• (DUK)/.97
• (GPN)/2.12
• (GPI)/9.05
• (HRI)/2.42
• (K)/.79
• (LH)/6.00
• (MLM)/2.94
• (PTEN)/-.35
•  (BTU)/1.34
• (PEP)/1.52
• (PM)/1.33
• (TPR)/1.19
• (TWTR)/.34
• (WEX)/2.46
  

After the Close:

• (AFRM)/-.22
• (CSL)/2.67
• (NET)/.00
• (EXPE)/.65
• (FLO)/.22
• (HUBS)/.53
• (ILMN)/.49
• (MHK)/2.86
• (TEX)/.55
• (YELP)/.52
• (ZEN)/.18
• (ZG)/-1.0
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 230K versus 238K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1615K versus 1628K prior.
• The CPI MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated  to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Jan.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Jan. is estimated at $23.0B versus -$21.3B in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, UK GDP report, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (UBER) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Fears, Short-Covering, Airline/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 -6.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,914.0 +12.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.95 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.93 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.0 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0  +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -8.2%

• NYSE Arms .66 -14.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.33 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 398.17 -1.33%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.27 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.8 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 206.75 -2.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.44 +.29% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 737.96 -3.3%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  91.0 +2.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.72 +.47%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 63.0 -.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 148.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.5 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.3 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.3 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 535 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 31.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -41.3%(-5.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks +.4% 2) Utilities +.4% 3) Gold & Silver +.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ICHR, LBRT, BIG, CVS, VREX, ATGE, CFVI, AVYA, NEWR and QNST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VNQ 2) AVYA 3) BLNK 4) IPO 5) GES
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QNST 2) TCS 3) ATGE 4) RDWR 5) BIG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.5% 2) Alt Energy +4.5% 3) Gambling +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DOCS, SDIG, CHEF, PFGC, NCR, OMC, ENPH, CHWY, THC, CMG, AMC, ZETA, ULCC, SQ, MDGL, METC, TUP, STAR, ATKR, SAVE, PAYC, FLNC, XPO, FLT, EBIX, APPS, BMBL, QTRX, STEM, ALGN, FOXA, EAF, FMC, LAD, SPWR, STEP, AZEK, LYFT, ARRY, MSGE, BYD, CDXS, IPG, HAE, FB, CME, USFD, IIVI, HOG, AXTA, MNDT, SNAP, REZI, IRBT, TSE, SHLS, BKNG and INBX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) USFD 2) PHM 3) MNDT 4) AES 5) CMG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ECOL 2) PFGC 3) OMC 4) ENPH 5) CMG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume