Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.8% 2) Gambling -5.0% 3) Homebuilding -4.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PCOR, HGTY, ALGN, LASR, OSPN, MOS, HPQ, TTWO, CQP, COUP, LPI, LXU, S, WYNN, RMBS, EGLE, PLL, DK, RDFN, IPI, ARLP, DTM, ROCC, TWI, DVN, ARVN, EBIX, QLYS, NCNO, SPWR, NCNO, WHD, SPWR, GTLB, HCC, CTRA, PBF, APPS, STAA, NTRA, LVS, ARCH, UPST, LEGN, RCKT, AFRM, DASH, AMR, BTU, ACMR and METC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KWEB 2) XLB 3) NTAP 4) KBH 5) COUP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKTR 2) ELMS 3) ZH 4) ACRX 5) LILM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +2.4% 2) Education +1.5% 3) Pharma +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MRNA, ASO, MATX, SQSP, UGI, CAG, HUN, SWX, CINF and HESM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) COTY 3) EQT 4) LYB 5) FOSL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FDBL 2) MATX 3) NTRS 4) ECL 5) SWX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +30.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 31.3% of Issues Advancing, 65.3% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 536 New Lows
• 34.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,777.0 +120.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,626.0 -1.22%
  
• Vix 31.5 +2.3%
• Total Put/Call .88 -16.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -18.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Dozens Killed in Russian Strikes Near Polish Border.
• Ukraine Update: Senior U.S., Chinese Officials to Meet Monday.
• It’s Crunch Time for Traders Juggling Russia Default Risk, Fed.
• Sullivan Says Venezuela Sanctions Relief Needs ‘Concrete Steps’.
• U.K. to Streamline Ukrainian Refugee Intake After Criticism.  
• U.S. Pays $2 Million a Month to Protect Pompeo From Iran Threat.    
• Sliding Yen Looks Like One-Way Bet as Japan Import Costs Surge.
  
• Russian Prosecutors Threaten U.S. Firms With Seizures: WSJ.
• How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Tearing Apart the Global Food System.  
• U.S. Equity Futures Climb as Crude Oil Retreats: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Resumes Decline as Iran, Russia and Fed Jostle for Limelight.
• With Apple Debuting Its Last M1 Chip, Here’s What’s Next.  
• Gold Dealers Swamped by Demand as War Creates Inflation Scare.  
• Fed to Start Rate Hikes With License to Turn Aggressive Later.   
• El-Erian Says Ukraine War Effect to Spur U.S. Inflation Higher. 
• Hedge Funds’ Commodity Bets Soar After Ukraine Invasion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Latest Updates | U.S. Warns of Full NATO Response if Russia Attacks Poland.
• Bombs Force Ukraine Into War Economy.
• Inside One of Russia’s Deadliest Assaults on a Ukraine City. ‘They Want to Terrorize.’9 min read.
• Biden’s War on Oil Hits Consumers. The American energy industry is ready to help if Washington stops trying to put us out of business.
• U.S. Won’t Negotiate Sanctions With Russia to Save Iran Nuclear Deal. 
• It’s Joe Biden’s Inflation. He blames Vladimir Putin, but his policies and the Federal Reserve are at fault.   
• Rent-Control Measures Are Back as Home Rents Reach New Highs.
• Opioid Overdose Death Rate for U.S. Black Population Is Higher Than for White.
• As Gas Prices Soar, Buyers Find Fewer Fuel-Efficient Car Options.
• War Threatens Wheat Supply.
• Biden’s Ukraine Response Imperils Campaign Pledges.
• Chip Makers Stockpiled Materials Ahead of Ukraine’s Invasion.

Fox News:   

• LIVE UPDATES: American journalist killed by Russian forces near Kyiv, two other correspondents injured.
• WH axed chance to train Ukraine military in guerrilla tactics over Putin fear: report.
• Officials reveal toll of Iranian missile attack on US consulate in Iraq.
• Dozens killed after Russian military attacks base mere miles from Poland.
• LIVE UPDATES: Russia asks for military help from US adversary hours before crucial meeting with America.
• Russia launches deadly strike on evacuee train carrying children.

CNBC:

• Ballistic missiles hit Iraq’s Kurdish capital, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claim responsibility. 
• Tom Brady says he is returning to Tampa Bay Buccaneers to play 23rd season in NFL.
• Ukraine has started using Clearview AI’s facial recognition during war.

Zero Hedge:

• Russia Seeking China's Military Help In Ukraine, US "Sources" Say In Afternoon Of Media Leaks; China Responds: "Never Heard Of That".
• Goldman Trader: "The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That's Taken Shape Over The Past Six Years".
• Bitcoin Slides Ahead Of EU Vote Which Could "Practically" Ban Key Digital Currencies.
• Grains Cheatsheet, Part 2: Don't Follow The 'Record Crop' Trap.
• Hedge Fund CIO: The Golden Era For Central Banking Is Ending And A Global "Great Famine" Is Coming.
• Putin Warns Attempts To Prevent Russian Exports Of Fertilizers, Oil, Gas Will Have 'Serious Consequences'.
• Iran Claims Responsibility For Attacking 'Israeli Strategic Center' In Iraq.
• Ukraine, Russian Negotiators Say "Significant Progress" Made In Ceasefire Talks, Expect Signed Deal In "Next Few Days".
• Aviation Groups Call For Lifting All COVID Restrictions On Air Travel.
• "Democracy Is At Stake" - Dems Urge Americans' Shared "Sacrifice" Over Soaring Gas Prices.
• China Locks Down 17.5 Million In Shenzhen As Daily COVID Cases Soar To 2-Year High.
• Russian Missiles Obliterate Base Near Poland That Previously Housed US Troops.
• Italian Police Seize World's Largest Sailing Yacht From Russian Oligarch.
• TME Sunday: Sentiment screams buy but.....
• U.N. Warns Russia's War In Ukraine Could Spike Global Food Prices By 22%.
• Russia Threatens Attack On NATO Weapons Shipments To Ukraine: "Legitimate Targets".
• Iraq Kurdish Capital Struck By Missiles Launched From Outside The Country.
• South Korea Elects Conservative Anti-North Hawk As President.
• Stoltenberg Says Ukraine's NATO Membership Was Never "Imminent" Or "On The Agenda".
• Six West Point Cadets Overdose During South Florida Spring Break Visit.

MarketWatch.com:         

• Look out — this inflation forecast is now flashing red. 
  
• Weekend reads: Could China be the next investment market to be canceled?  
• Opinion: Energy stocks have rallied amid a kink in global supplies — ‘there is plenty of upside remaining’.  
• Pfizer CEO says fourth COVID shot will be needed, shots for young kids could start in May.

NewsMax:

• Trump: Biden Admin 'One Train Wreck After Another'.
• Rep. Gohmert: Russia Could Use Iran to Sell Its Oil to US.
• NATO Chief Says Russia May Use Chemical Weapons.
• Russia Turns to China as Nearly Half Its Reserves Are Frozen. 
• Mariupol: Last Reserves of Food and Water: Running Out.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “The Fake News Said My Personality Would Get Us Into a War. But Actually, My Personality Is What Kept US Out of War” – President Trump in Florence (VIDEO).
• Mayorkas Releases New Rules on Extremism – DHS Will Target Anyone Who Believes Election Was Stolen or Who Challenged Fauci’s Everchanging COVID Narrative.  
• “F**king Disgraceful” – Donald Trump Jr. Responds to America’s Two-Tiered Judicial System after Rapists Are Sentenced to Probation While Peaceful Trump-Supporters Rot in Jail. 
• No One Is Talking About the Mass Food Shortage and Grocery Bill Increases US Is Barreling Toward. 
• ABC’s Jon Karl: “If You Look at the Numbers, Inflation Really Started to Rise Almost Exactly When Biden Came in the White House” (VIDEO).
• DeSantis Warns Dems Will “Reimpose” COVID Restrictions After Midterms.
• “The Best Chance in 20 Years to Take This Guy Out” – Lindsey Graham Again Calls for Assassination of Vladimir Putin and Crushing the Russian Economy (VIDEO).
• The Atlantic Wants Us to Know that Climate Change Would Be Severely Impacted if There was a Nuclear War.
• Houston Elections Administrator, Isabel Longoria, Claims 10,000 Ballots Weren’t Counted in Recent Primary Because Staff Was Too Tired.
• Larry Summers Is Second Obama Economic Adviser To Blame Biden For Inflation (VIDEO).
• Australia’s Prime Minister Calls to Change Isolation Rules for Close Contact of Positive Cases – Now Wants to Deal with Covid-19 Like the Flu.
• EXCLUSIVE: Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates Continues to Play Victim and Refuses to Turn Election Routers Over to Inspectors… Why Is That? (VIDEO).
• “Biden Won’t Do It Because He Does Not Have The Will To Stand Up To AOC” – President Trump On Elon Musk Calling For Increased Oil Production (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Multiple ‘Iranian-Produced Ballistic Missiles’ Rain Down on US Army Base in Iraq – Days After Biden Announced Plans to Buy Iranian Oil (VIDEO).
  

GETTR: 

• @VigilantFox - Dr. Jim Meehan: Masks Don't Work—They Only Force You to Breathe in Your Own CO2 and Bacteria "The explosion in bacterial pneumonias that's happening in this country is tragic, and it was avoidable." (video)
• @chiefnerd - Dr. Aaron Kheriaty on the potential long-term consequences of the Pfizer vaccine. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.37 -.32%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,719.0 +61.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.1 -2.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.95%.
• S&P 500 futures +.57%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of Note
  

After the Close:

• (COUP)/.05
• (MTN)/5.64
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Industrial Production report, Deutsche Bank dbaccess Media/Net/Telecom Conference and the Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• This Cold War May Come With a Second Front.
• Ukraine Update: ‘Continuous’ Video Talks Under Way With Russia.
• Russian Stock Market Trading Halt Extended to March 18.
  
• Two Weeks Into War, Russia’s Economy Has Rarely Fared Worse Than Now.  
• Here’s How Oil’s Historic Surge Is Impacting Asia Stock Markets.
• Goldman Cuts S&P 500 Target Again as Gloom Descends Upon Stocks.
• Recession Risks Are Piling Up And Investors Need to Get Ready.
• Stock Market Bottom Slipping Away After 13 Years of Dip-Buying.
• Inflation Is Rising Faster Than Pay for Many American Workers.  
• A $37 Billion U.S. Bond Fund Emerges as a Big Loser From Russia.  
• Steve Cohen’s Point72 to Redeem $750 Million From Hedge Fund Melvin.  
• Ashmore Built Up Outsized Exposure to Russia Before Ukraine War.  
• Biden Urged to Invoke Cold-War Powers to Blunt Energy Price Hike.  
• 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Lender Affirm Halts Bond Sale Due to Market Volatility.  
• Charting the Global Economy: Central Bankers Face Balancing Act.   
• ‘Uncertainty Reigns’ as Credit Market Looks to Fed to Set Tone.  
• World’s Central Banks Set Policy for Economies Shaken by the War.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Strikes Intensify Near Kyiv.
• Live Updates.
• Ukraine Is a World Leader in Surrogacy, but Babies Are Now Stranded in a War Zone.
• Ukraine’s New Foreign Legion Takes the Fight to Russian Forces.
• In the Rubble of Kharkiv, Survivors Make Their Stand: ‘It’s a War, and It’s a Dirty War’.
• Crypto Aims to Boost Influence with Washington Hires.
• Democrats for Higher Gas Prices. Senators propose a windfall-profits tax to reduce oil production. 
• U.S. Talks to Ease Oil Sanctions on Venezuela Get Blowback.
• Disney CEO Tried to Avoid Politics, Now Finds Himself in Middle of Partisan Spat.
• Government Gives Itself a Big Raise. Everything you dislike about Congress and more—in 2,727 pages.
• In Congo, China Hits Roadblock in Global Race for Cobalt
• Why Obama Didn’t Arm Ukraine. He misunderstood Putin and the reality of military force in foreign affairs.
• Saudi Arabia Puts 81 People to Death in its Largest Execution Ever.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (EQNR), (FMC), (UBER) and (JAMF).

Fox News: 

• LIVE UPDATES: Zelenskyy shares number of troops KIA for first time, slams kidnapping Melitopol mayor.
• HUMANITARIAN CRISIS: Polish cities running out of space for refugees fleeing Russian attacks. 
• LIVE UPDATES: Imperiled journalist estimates how many Russians actually support the war on Ukraine.
• White House pushed to look at whether Russia secretly funded anti-US oil effort.
• Biden admin accused of using Russia to cover up 'radical' Green New Deal ideas.

CNBC:

• Insiders debate securing America’s energy future at the industry’s biggest gathering.
• Western arms convoys to Ukraine are ‘legitimate targets,’ Russia warns, as global risks rise.
• Warren Buffett is still buying Occidental Petroleum, adding shares worth $1.5 billion.
• Ackman’s Pershing Square is back at Canadian Pacific. This is what could be ahead for the railroad.
• Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in week ahead, as Ukraine crisis adds volatility.

Zero Hedge:

• US Consulate In Iraq Hit By "Multiple Missiles", Iran Launch Suspected. 
• JP Morgan Hires Ex-Jailbirds As Staffing Shortage Worsens.
• Russia Threatens Attack On NATO Weapons Shipments To Ukraine: "Legitimate Targets".
• Idiocracy: CDC Lowers Expectations For Child Development, Raising New Questions for Parents.
• Ron Paul: Is Putin the New Coronavirus?
• Biggest Commodity Trading Houses In The West Continue To Buy Russian Oil And Gas.
• White House Holds 'Briefing' For TikTok Creators On Ukraine: "Like A Kindergarten News Conference".
• TME Saturday: Funding spreads, China and Oil.
• Global Diesel Shortage Raises Risk Of Even Greater Oil Price Spike.
• Wall Street Stunned By Zoltan Pozsar's Latest Prediction Of What Comes Next.
• A Visual Guide To Europe's Member States.
• Foreign Volunteers Who Join Fight Against Russia Can Get Citizenship: Ukraine.
• GEFIRA: Western Media "Are Either Delusional Or Lying Through Their Teeth".
• Biden: NATO-Russia Conflict Would Be "World War 3", Warns Kremlin Of "Severe Price" If Chemical Weapons Used.
• When Pigs Fly: Congress Inserts Over 4,000 Pork Earmarks In Spending Bill.
• "Credit Is Cracking".
• CCP Seeks New Global Order At 'Expense Of All Others': US Admiral.
• Joe Biden’s Electric Car Plans Support The World’s Worst Humanitarian Abuses.
• DuckDuckGo Updates Search Engine, Will Penalize Sites 'Associated With Disinformation'.
• Democrat Spending Bill Contains 'Serious Expansion of Federal Gun Control': Gun Rights Group.
• Shanghai Shutters Schools, Builds Hospitals As COVID Comes Roaring Back Across China.
• Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Is 'Crime Against Humanity,' Has To End Soon: Trump.
• Putin Spokesman Says Russian Economy in 'Shock'.
• Juror No. 50 Pleads The Fifth, Is Granted Immunity In Maxwell Trial. 
• Illinois Illegally Denied Elections Group Access To Voter Records, Federal Court Rules. 
• UN Warns Ukraine War Could Spark 20% Surge In Global Food Prices.
• Bonds, Stocks, & Commodities Crushed Because 'Putin'.

MarketWatch.com:        

• Opinion: Short-sellers are scarce and that’s some of the best news the stock market’s had lately.
  
• Weekend reads: Could China be the next investment market to be canceled?  
• 12 dividend stocks paying at least 3.5% that are well-suited for high inflation.
  
• Oil topping $125 a barrel could break this part of U.S. credit market, warns BofA.

NewsMax:

• Concern Grows Over Traffickers Targeting Ukrainian Refugees.
• Ukraine Says Shelling Damaged Cancer Hospital.
• 'There are Many Corpses in the Streets, Nobody Buries Them'.
• Uber to Roll Out Fuel Surcharge in US as Gas Soars.   
• Zelenskyy: Ukraine Nearing 'New Stage of Terror' as Russia Nears Kyiv.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• THANK A DEMOCRAT: As Gas Prices Hit $4.34 per Gallon Experts See $4 Gas Until 2023.
• Austrian Government Suspends Mandatory Covid-19 Vaccine For All Adults. 
• Massive Fraud Identified in Latest Texas Election – 15% of All Mail-In Ballots Rejected.
• Vaccine-Injuries SKYROCKET: Two Months into 2022, Vaccine-Related Myocarditis Reports in VAERS Have Surged to Nearly Half the Total Reported in 2021.
• Democrats NEED a War with Russia to Survive.
• Moderna Approves $900 Million+ Golden Parachute for CEO After Company Went From Losing $747 Million In 2020 to Making $12.2 Billion in 2021 With Its Covid Jab.
• WWIII Trial Balloon: Chairman of Democrat Supporting Veterans Group VoteVets Says Biden Getting US Troops Involved in War in Europe Over Ukraine “Probably Inevitable”.
• Halyna Hutchins Bears Partial Responsibility for Her Own Death, Baldwin Claims in Ghoulish New Court Filing.
• ‘Possibly Covid Related’ – Hailey Bieber Hospitalized with ‘Stroke-Like Symptoms’ From Blood Clot in her Brain.
• Russia, China, Brazil, India Call for Investigation Into US Biolabs in Ukraine Representing About Half of the World’s Population.

The Epoch Times:

• Activist Shareholder Accuses Disney of ‘Complicity in China Genocide’.

Twitter:

• @guillaume_ptak - Sent to me by a contact in #Donbas : scenes of destruction in villages around Slovyansk, that are being pummelled by Russian rockets. (video)
• @aletweetsnews - Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Shells landing on playgrounds and picnic tables between apartment complexes in the city's northern outskirts today, just barely missing someone walking in a parking lot. (video)
• @risemelbourne - And so It begins.....Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla says choosing mRNA Tech for the production of the Covax was most 𝘾𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧-𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚...Soon they'll say "𝙄𝙩 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙞𝙘𝙚, 𝙣𝙤 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙩𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜"...(video)
• @KateTagseth - In the Pfizer trials, more people died in the vaccine group than in the placebo group, and it takes 22,000 vaccines to save one life from COVID. Steve Kirsch: "So you killed 150,000 in order to maybe save 10,000 lives." (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).