Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• In a Chilling Threat, Putin Vows to Rid Russia of ‘Traitors’.
• Biden Ramps Up Military Aid to Ukraine, Including Armed Drones.
  
• Hidden Debt Fears Unravel Lucrative Lifeline for China Builders.
• Ukraine Update: Biden Offers Weapons, Calls Putin ‘War Criminal’.  
• The Global Fight Over Chips Is About to Get Even Worse.  
• Hong Kong Raises Benchmark Interest Rate After Fed Tightens.  
• Brazil Raises Rates to 5-Year High, May Step Up Pace Amid Shocks.  
• Stocks Aided by Upbeat Powell; Bonds Flash Caution: Markets Wrap.
• Powell Ramps Up Inflation Fight in Economy Tough Enough to Cope.
• Fed Lifts Rates a Quarter Point and Signals More Hikes to Come.  
• Robinhood Readies Feature That Lets Users Lend Out Stocks.  
• Citi Draws Ire of Texas Republicans Over Its New Abortion Policy.  
• Lennar Raises Forecasts as Home Orders Top Estimates.  
• Gundlach Thinks A Recession’s Likely in 2023.

Wall Street Journal:

• Latest Updates: Biden Says Putin Is a War Criminal.
• Fed Embarks on Rate Increases to Combat Inflation.
• Recap | Our Analysis of Fed Decision.
• A Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs.
• Why U.S. Oil and Gas Producers Aren’t Solving the Energy Crisis. The crash of 2020 and the pressure of climate-change politics led them to reconsider their business models.
• Germany to Russia: We’re Buying the F-35. Purchase of the modern fighter is part of its new military upgrade.
• 9/11 Tribute Museum in Lower Manhattan Preparing to Close Permanently.
• Instagram Adds Parental Controls For the First Time.

Fox News:  

• White House says 'legal process' is still under review after Biden levels scorching accusation against Putin.
• Biden admin urges Congress to seize deadly moment to push energy policies.
  

CNBC.com:

• Federal Reserve approves first interest rate hike in more than three years, sees six more ahead.
• Fed’s rate forecast signals willingness to sacrifice growth to stop inflation, strategists say.
• Russian invasion of Ukraine will lower car production by millions of units over two years, S&P says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lennar, Williams-Sonoma and more.

MarketWatch: 

• The Fed got inflation badly wrong — and now it admits there’s no quick fix.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Calls Putin "A War Criminal" After Approving Armed Drones For Ukraine.
• Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Soar As Fed Hawkish Surprise Triggers Inversion, Countdown To Policy Error And Next Recesssion.
• Soros Worries About Putin-Xi Partnership, Hopes They Can Be Stopped "Before They Destroy Our Civilization".
• Australia Invests $360 Million In Rare Earth Projects To Combat China's Dominance.
• Ukraine's Corn Harvest May Plunge By A Third, Estimates Show.
• Flotilla Of 12 Tankers Carrying Russian Oil Approaching The US.
• DHS Collected Americans’ Financial Records In Bulk: Sen. Wyden.
• Max frustration market.
• Biden Poised To Remove Iran's IRGC From Terror List To Wrap Up Nuke Deal.
• Blinken Planning Trip To Saudi Arabia Amid Ukraine-Induced Scramble For More Oil.
• Russia Demands US Stop Arms Flow To Ukraine In Call; Sullivan Warns Against Chemical Weapons Use.
• 'Benghazi All Over Again': Fauci Braces For House GOP Investigations.
• "Soviet-Like Inflation" Returns As Sanctions Shock Russia Into Crisis.

Newsmax:   

• World Court: 'Zero Tolerance' for Crimes Against Kids in Ukraine.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• “I Think It’s Ridiculous We’re Not Moving to a 7-1 Map” – MO Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft Discusses Redistricting and Ranked-Choice Voting Movement in MO and Drops Names (AUDIO).
• Developing: Lansing Banquet Hall Receives Death Threats for Holding MAGA Event Later This Month — Owners Refuse to Bow Down to the Violent Leftist Mob (VIDEO).
• Transportation Secretary Buttigieg Says Solution to High Gas Prices is “Public Transportation” (VIDEO).
• NY Gov. Hochul to Extend Covid State of Emergency For Another Month.
• NY Governor Kathy Hochul Invited to NY Rangers Game – Gets Booed Off the Ice (VIDEO).
• California Democrat Lawmakers Vote Against Ending Governor Newsom’s Covid Emergency Powers.
• JUST IN: RINO Speaker Robin Vos ADMITS Widespread Fraud Occurred In Wisconsin But Says Legislature Cannot Decertify [VIDEO].
• After Watching Russia Invade Ukraine, Biden Responds with Weak Deterrent to Potential China Invasion of Taiwan.
• 8-Year-Old Boy in Peru Develops ‘Stevens-Johnson Syndrome’ Following Second Dose of Pfizer Covid-19.
• 52-Year-Old Australian Cricket Legend Died from Massive Heart Attack While on Vacation in Thailand.

The Epoch Times:

• China Lockdowns Expected to Worsen Supply Chain Crisis, Inflation Pressures.

Twitter: 

• @theragex - Chernihiv region, citizens are blocking the roads with their own bodies, they have stopped a Russian column from advancing. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - INDIA MAY PURCHASE UP TO 15 MLN BARRELS OF RUSSIAN OIL - BUSINESS STANDARD.
• @ScooterCasterNY - Image obtained by Maxar shows the Mariupol Drama Theater that acted as a bomb shelter, that was bombed, the word "ДЕТИ" (CHILDREN) was written in huge letters. There is no accident. Over 1000 people reported dead.

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Meanwhile in China: Thousands of residents in more than 100 buildings in Shenzhen are taken to isolation camps. (video)
• VigilantFox - Dr. McCullough—Blood Clots, Myocarditis, and Collapsing Athletes—Did They Take the Vaccine? (video) Dr. McCullough Goes Straight at Pfizer CEO for Pushing More Jabs Instead of Looking at Safety "We don't need Albert Bourla on advertising more vaccines... We need him on explaining why are there 1223 deaths that have occurred after the Pfizer vaccine in the first 90 days?" (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.5 -11.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 -10.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.50 +.24%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,191.0 +86.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 -.15%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/2.37
• (CMC)/1.38
• (DG)/2.57
• (GIII)/.65
• (SIG)/5.01
• (WRBY)/-.09
  

After the Close:

• (FDX)/4.65
• (GME)/.84
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1700K versus 1638K in Jan.
• Building Permits for Feb. is estimated to fall to 1850K versus 1899K in Jan.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to fall to 14.8 versus 16.0 in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 220K versus 227K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1480K versus 1494K prior.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.4% gain in Jan.
• Capacity Utilization for Feb. is estimated to rise to 77.9% versus 77.6% in Jan.
• Manufacturing Production for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England decision, Australia Unemployment report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stock Support Measures, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.0 -6.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,081.0 +383.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.11 +.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.1 -2.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.4 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -9.4%

• NYSE Arms .79 +17.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 -4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.30 -5.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.72 -7.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.17 -4.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 291.65 -9.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.16 -.25% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,743.10 -31.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 43.5 +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.09 -.71%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.13 +.97%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .43% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 30.25 +2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 150.6 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.9 -8.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.9 +.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.4 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 -7.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 69 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.0%(-.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +58 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +431 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -121 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.0% 2) Gold & Silver -.9% 3) Defense -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TCPC, BKR, GLUE, BG, CEIX, HCC, HII, GD, IDYA, BTU, LHX and NOC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) FLEX 3) XLB 4) EQT 5) HOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BRDS 2) NLOK 3) TLS 4) TANH 5) LYV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming +6.4% 2) Gambling +5.2% 3) Digital Health +4.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACMR, GDYN, TSP, EPAM, HCP, ACET, S, GTLB, KSS, EWCZ, TMST, APLS, IMXI, PRCT, LEGN, AVAV, SNOW, CAL, JBHT, COUP, MASI, SCVL, SBUX, ZETA, MAX and NFJ
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACC 2) UNM 3) NLSN 4) KSS 5) EPAM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LX 2) CAR 3) APLS 4) MU 5) AVAV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 77.6% of Issues Advancing, 19.4% Declining
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
• 34.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,144.0 +438.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,000.0 +.91%
  
• Vix 27.4 -8.2%
• Total Put/Call .96 -10.3%
• TRIN/Arms .77 +14.9%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China’s Goal With Putin Is to Resist U.S. Without Economic Pain.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Sees ‘Contradictions’ in Russia Talks.  
• Germany Earmarks $48 Billion for Armaments in Defense Push.
  
• Russia Is Spiraling Toward a $150 Billion Default Nightmare.  
• Russia to ‘Default’ If Dollar Coupons Paid in Rubles, Fitch Says.  
• Asia Stocks to Lift on Easing China Rout, Oil Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Sheds Most of Russian War Gains With China Demand in Focus.
  
• Daylight Saving Time Would Be Permanent Under Senate-Passed Bill.
• Limit Up or Limit Down? Nickel Traders Are Bracing for Wild Ride.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Bombards Kyiv as European Leaders Meet Zelensky.
• Latest Updates | Biden to Join EU Leaders at Summit in Brussels Next Week.
• Bond Markets Forecast Long Financial Freeze for Russia.
• Inside Chernobyl, 200 Exhausted Staff Toil Round the Clock at Russian Gunpoint.
• Russia Softens Iran Demands, Re-Opening Way for Nuclear Deal.
• Rollback of Xi Jinping’s Economic Campaign Exposes Cracks in His Power.
• Airlines Say Fliers Are Flocking Back, Despite Higher Ticket Prices.
• In Houston, Most Companies Are Back in the Office but Floors Are Half Empty.

Fox News:  

• Biden admin grilled for national debt claim as surging prices slam families.
• Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski and female journalist killed outside Kyiv.
• Russian lawmaker demands part of US be returned, Americans pay reparations.

CNBC.com:

• The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates, but unique challenges could slow its pace.
• CrowdStrike CEO: Cyberattacks are on the rise as hackers use Russia-Ukraine war as a distraction.
• Tesla hikes car prices in the U.S., China after CEO Elon Musk warns of inflation pressure.
• China’s Covid spike worsens: Dongguan factory center locks down, new cases top 3,500 nationwide.

MarketWatch:  

• Inflation is red hot and drivers are reaching their breaking point.
  
• DoorDash is latest on-demand app to try to ease gig workers’ pain at the pump.

Zero Hedge:

• Pozsar's "Margin Call Doom Loop" Prediction Comes True As Trafigura Faces Billions In Margin Calls.
• SoftBank's Masa Son Sees $25 Billion Evaporate Amid Crushing Tech Selloff.
• 49 Republican Senators Will Oppose Iran Nuclear Deal.
• Zelensky Says "Ukraine Must Recognize It Will Not Join NATO" As Ceasefire Talks Resume.
• Progressive Governance Needs A Social Credit State.
• A Historic Day On Deck: Powell Hikes, Putin Defaults.
• US Navy Warship Was At Sea When Officials Said It Was Undeployable: Commander.
• China Reports Most New COVID Cases Since 2020 As Lockdowns Spread.
• UN Again Warns Of Mass Starvation In "World's Worst Humanitarian Crisis" - And It's Not Ukraine.
• Sell low, buy high mania.
• Those Who Chose Shaming Over Science.
• Greenwald: Russian Invasion Has Elevated "Treason"-Mania To Never-Before-Seen-Heights.
• Russia Sanctions President Biden, Secretary Blinken & Top Defense Officials.
• Crude Craters, Chinese Tech 'Dead Cat Bounces', & VXX Decouples From Reality.

Newsmax:   

• Rand Paul: Why Was Polish MiGs Plan Discussed Publicly?

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING: US Senate Votes 57-40 to Pass Rand Paul’s Bill to End Transportation and Airplane Mask Mandate.
• Two Years Ago Today Joe Biden Promised to End the US Oil Industry — Joe Kept That Promise and Today Gas Is $4.32 a Gallon.
• 3 Days After They Bombed US: Biden Admin Reportedly Gives Guarantees to Iran on Ability to Trade with Tehran.
• Farmers Warn About Rising Food Prices — One Way To Prepare.
• “We Have One of the Best Militaries in the World” – Psaki Projects Weakness Amid Russia-Ukraine War (VIDEO).
• Russia Sanctions Joe and Hunter Biden, Hillary and Others – President Trump Responds and Points Out Biden Family’s Conflict of Interest with Russia.
• Far-Left Journalist, CNN Analyst Dances on Grave of Fox News Cameraman Killed in Ukraine.
• With US Gas Prices at All-Time Highs – Democrats File Bill to Tax Oil Companies.
• BREAKING: US Producer Price Inflation Soars to 10.0% — Largest Annual Increase on Record.

The Epoch Times:

• Children in China Diagnosed With Leukemia After Taking Chinese Vaccines.

Twitter: 

• @kylenabecker - Here's how you flush all these CDC games down the toilet.
• @theragex - Russian Soldiers left in Bucha in Kyiv region, their equipment in almost every yard. (video) Luhansk region. Russian military equipment abandoned. (video)

GETTR:

•  VigilantFox - HOOOONK! The People's Convoy Continues Demonstrating for Freedom Around the D.C. Beltway. (video) Dr. Ryan Cole Explains How Micro Clots from the Vaccine Can Spell Bad News Long-Term. (video) The mRNA Vaccines Are the Entry Point for Transhumanism—China's Already Doing It.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 70.5 +3.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.44 -.44%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,708.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.6 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JBL)/1.48
  

After the Close:

• (GES)/1.15
• (LEN)/2.58
• (SMTC)/.69
• (WSM)/4.82
• (ZTO)/2.06
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +3.8% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +3.3% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +3.8% gain in Jan.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +2.0% gain in Jan.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.9% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +2.1% gain in Dec.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to fall to 81.0 versus 82.0 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,316,330 barrels versus a -1,863,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,118,000 barrels versus a -1,450,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,562,110 barrels versus a -523,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.36% versus a +1.6% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate to .25-.5% from 0.0 to .25%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC Press Conference, UK PPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (BOX) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.