Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 51.3% of Issues Advancing, 45.6% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 39.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,487.0 +46.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,362 +1.39%
  
• Vix 24.6 -4.2%
• Total Put/Call .80 -11.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.5 +24.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -4.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 -8.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.17 -.10%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,326.0 -111.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ONON)/.00

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 6.1M versus 6.5M in Jan.
• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurozone Trade Balance report and the (AFRM) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.7 -3.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,422.0 +316.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.77 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 -5.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -5.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.66 +115.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.68 -3.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.94  -1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.97 -4.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.50 -11.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 271.32 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.44 +.6% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,743.10 -31.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 53.25 +9.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.30 -.02%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.22 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .37% -6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 23.0 -7.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 150.6 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.8 +6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.3 -4.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.88 +8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 75 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.2% 2) Video Gaming -1.8% 3) Banks -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BRBR, IEP, ACEL, HPQ and AMBC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFX 2) DG 3) IHI 4) NLSN 5) CWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BEKE 2) CATO 3) BABA 4) NIO 5) WRBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.3% 2) Gold & Silver +3.6% 3) Steel +3.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PD, LMND, AVAV, IPI, GIII, GTLB, GRNA, MSP, BROS, PRAX, LXU, OXY, GES, SMAR, IRTC, UPST, BTU, SQ, NGM, PRCT, DICE, TSP, S, SITM, HCP, MRC, FOSL, CAH, VERV, UNIT, SMTC, EOLS, EDR, IMXI, SLB, AB, RXDX, ATSG, EXFY and SNOW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CAH 2) DXLG 3) SIG 4) DIG 5) AMR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PD 2) OXY 3) REI 4) GIII 5) EXTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 70.0% of Issues Advancing, 26.9% Declining
• 34 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 36.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,384.0 +279.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,062 -.47%
  
• Vix 25.9 -2.7%
• Total Put/Call .96 -4.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.7 +114.2%