Sunday, March 20, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WEN), (PANW), (TWTR) and (MMM).
Fox News:   
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:         
TheGatewayPundit.com:
GETTR: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.75 +7.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 54.5 +2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.83 -.22%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,536.0 +14.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.0 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (NKE)/.72
  • (TME)/.51
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • (WRB) 3-for-2
  • (ACMR) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone PPI report, Wolfe Research Software Conference and the BofA Electronic Payments Symposium could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, March 18, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,463.07 +6.0%























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices
  • DJIA 34,755.0 +5.5%
  • NASDAQ 13,893.84 +8.2%
  • Russell 2000 2,085.58 +5.3%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 76.06 +9.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 252.14 +10.5%
  • Wilshire 5000 45,264.0 +6.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,730.04 +8.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,625.84 +4.2%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 773.04 +3.8%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,257.65 +2.3%
  • NYSE Technology 3,615.04 +10.9%
  • Transports 16,497.72 +8.3%
  • Utilities 983.04 +.45%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.7 +6.9%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.40 +6.6%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,464.58 +.43%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.41 +.04%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 463,919 +.49%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 11 +672
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.99 -2.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 361,665 -1.9%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,896,974 -6.5%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -24.8%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.75 +20.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 108.0 +18.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 -13.3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,484.0 +739.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.25 +3.0%
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.4 -20.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.8 -8.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.8 -5.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.4 -4.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,203.73 +.42%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.559 Trillion -.37%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +12.464 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 22.5 -6.3%
  • AAII % Bears 49.8 +8.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 290.73 -1.5%
  • Crude Oil 104.66 -4.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 323.59 -2.09%
  • Natural Gas 4.87 +2.4%
  • Heating Oil 358.40 +5.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 240.0 (1,000/metric ton) -33.3%
  • Gold 1,927.33 -3.0%
  • Silver 24.93 -3.5%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 589.68 -2.8%
  • Copper 473.10 +2.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 640.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 154.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
  • Lumber 1,200.0 +2.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,557.89 -1.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 805.0 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.8 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.5% -.3 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.1 +5.0%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.88 +.87%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -12.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.3 -20.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.7 +11.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 58.3%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike, 41.7%(+8.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4
  • US Dollar Index 98.26 -.87%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,725.47 +.89%
  • Bitcoin/USD 41,715 +7.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.53 +2.9%
  • Yield Curve 25.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% +15.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.917 Trillion +.49%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.37 -7.55%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 142.13 -.01%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.75 -6.7%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 204.10 -9.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.3 -3.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.57 -8.3%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,747.27 -52.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.5 -.5%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.9% -8.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 54.0 +10.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +4.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 +3.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.75 -13.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 323.0 -2.9%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 79.43 -13.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 278.32 -19.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 108.0 unch.
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.75 -.5 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,017.70 -2.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 223,000 -3.8%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% -10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 40.5 +6.5% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.48% +16.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 496,500 -1.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +12.8% -.3 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +.9% +13.1 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $216.4M +170.8%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.27/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,588 -4.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,366.0 -.7%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 144.52 +3.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 263,746 -1.0%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,221,946 +11.6%
  • US Covid-19:  72 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22  -11/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -89.0%(-2.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Growth +8.1%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value +2.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Airlines +13.1%
  • Internet +10.5%
  • Alt Energy +9.2%
  • Digital Health +8.8%
  • Video Gaming +8.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Utilities +.5%
  • Steel -.1%
  • Energy -.9%
  • Gold & Silver -1.7%
  • Oil Service -6.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)
  • GTLB, ASAN, APLS, WRBY, SPTN, CRCT, KDNY, KZR, RBLX, PD, LOVE, EWCZ, MDB, SQ, UPST, SUMO, LFG, ISEE, ACLS, DV, ZM, DECK, GSHD, BROS, NOG, ANET, FOSL and RMBS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (1)
  • CMC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on China Market Support Measures, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.3 -5.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,453.0 +16.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.62 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.4 -.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -13.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 +3.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.63 -1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 392.0  -1.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.01 +1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.86 -5.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 278.31 +3.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.5 +.64% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,921.15 +3.9%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 53.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 -6.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 50.27 +.02%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.84 -.72%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .39% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 +2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.80 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.3 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.7 -2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.9 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -3/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +203 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +130 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long