BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:23 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average
2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
40.9% of Issues Advancing, 55.8% Declining
65 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
43.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 49.4%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,041.0 +42.0 points
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,586 +.39%
Vix 22.9 -.3%
Total Put/Call .76 -17.4%
TRIN/Arms .53 -29.2%

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:47 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 -2.75 basis points.

China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -.75 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.07 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,091.0 +90.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.0 +.1%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.78%.

S&P 500 futures +.09%.

NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(CTAS)/2.44
(GIS)/.78
(JKS)/.90
(WGO)/2.91

After the Close:

(FUL)/.73
(KBH)/1.54
(OLLI)/.66
(OXM)/1.45
(SCS)/0.00

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 810K versus 801K in Jan.

10:30 am EST

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -337,500 barrels versus a +4,345,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrels versus a -3,615,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -975,000 barrels versus a +332,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.06% versus a +1.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

(WRB) 3-for-2
(ACMR) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Powell speaking, Senate hearing on semis, Eurozone Services PMI report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Sidoti Small-Cap Conference, (WEX) investor day and the (WOOF) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 2:57 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher

Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

Volume: Around Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 22.9 -2.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,996.0 +268.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.12 +1.2%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.9%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.3 -.9%

ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -356.0 points

Total Put/Call .97 +12.8%

NYSE Arms .66 -27.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.70 -1.8%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.53 +.04%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.50 -.93%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 -2.0 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.19 +1.5%

Emerging Market CDS Index 235.29 +.78%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.2 +1.3%
Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,114.65 +2.1%

2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -2.25 basis points

TED Spread 45.0 -11.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -.5 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 113.0 +2.0 basis points
iShares CMBS ETF 49.79 -.08%

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.03 +.22%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .48% +7.0 basis points

Yield Curve 16.25 -9.0 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 144.8 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.8 +2.6 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.4 -.8 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.6 -.7 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.95 +1.0 basis point
0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

71 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +216 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:56 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Steel -1.0% 2) Energy -.6% 3) Oil Service -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

OKTA, TDW, IPI, THS, ASIX, NKTX and METC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) PPC 2) FLEX 3) IVV 4) CFX 5) NKE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) ORIC 2) OKTA 3) GRAB 4) DAVE 5) GATO

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:30 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +2.8% 2) Video Gaming +2.5% 3) Internet +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

GME, HRT, AOSL, HEAR, IRTC, SON, JXN, DAR, ECL and NKE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EGHT 2) EXPR 3) AVCT 4) ALL 5) COOP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) BKKT 2) SON 3) SPR 4) PDD 5) ADBE